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Bands of Rain & T-Storms

Watch NBC Action News in HD as we track this storm all day. We are the only station on from 5 AM through Nooon with weather updates every day!

Good morning bloggers,

The strong storm that is hitting the Rocky Mountain states hard is bringing us our first round of rain with embedded thunderstorms.  Here is the 4:40 AM radar image:

This first wave of rain/thunderstorms will likely move right through the KC metro area by sunrise with some heavy rain and lightning spreading north along and east of the state line.  Other rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely today and tonight as the main storm ejects northeast across western Kansas.  Look at what the storm has left in Boulder, CO.  Some areas have had over 2 feet of snow, and this picture was taken by a friend of mine who lives just east of Boulder, between Boulder and Denver where 21 inches had fallen by Wednesday evening:

The snow continues to fall in Denver early this morning. It should shut off sometime today. This is one rather unique storm for Colorado as it is a powerful upper level low taking a perfect track to become a record breaking snow maker.  Take a look at the surface reflection of this big storm as of 7 AM this morning:

Can you imagine this storm being a bit farther south with cold air in place in our region later this season?  Or, this storm during the spring with more warm & moist air available for severe weather? There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms fromaround Springfield, MO southward, but this doesn't include our area.  Go to www.LRCWeather.com for some more information on this historic Colorado storm.

Have a great day. We will try to update the blog later this afternoon.  I caught a bad cold and sore throat and went home early yesterday, but got to bed around 9 PM and had some good sleep.  I think I am feeling better. 

Gary

Published Thursday, October 29, 2009 4:41 AM by glezak

Comments

 

farmgirl said:

Mother Natures natural alarm clock woke me up with Big Thunder and rain moving through La Cygne.

Gary, I hope you get to feeling better soon.
October 29, 2009 5:11 AM
 

DPannell said:

Hi Gary,
Sorry to hear you are sick, I do hope getting rest early on helped.  Thunder and heavy rain just moved through Paola, of course.  Looks like we might have a brief break on the radar so I'm headed out with Windy for a quick hike, hopefully we will get back before any more lightening...hate walking in the rain but at least it's not dangerous, we'll stay close.  The last thing we need here is rain, I have never seen the ground this saturated it's like a marsh out there.  Yuck!  Feel better, stay well, have a good day!
October 29, 2009 5:19 AM
 

pjjayhawk said:

checked the rain gauge while dealing with the morning dog chores and we had a quick 0.18" from the first round of rain - 435 & Shawnee Msn Pkwy
October 29, 2009 6:25 AM
 

WinterTracker said:

What the heck are you doing up at 4:41 in the morning!?! lol

-----------

I saw some lightning and since I went to bed so early I got up for a few minutes to start the blog, then went back to sleep for a little while.  I do feel a bit better.

Gary

October 29, 2009 6:53 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

The dogs and me are snuggled in downstairs, where they always go during a storm. So I think I'm hearing thunder...and it turns out it's a snoring dog.
October 29, 2009 6:54 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

Oh to be in Denver today!  NWS reports areas west of the city pushing 40"!!
October 29, 2009 7:10 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

We still have heavy rain and small hail. I am guess at the hail based on the sounds of it hitting the window and skylight. It sounds like another round of tstorms is getting closer to me.

Audra in Lee's Summit, by Lake Lotawana
October 29, 2009 7:11 AM
 

BuildersSnow said:

Leavenworth near fort 0.45 inches of rain  as of 7am
October 29, 2009 7:15 AM
 

flake said:

.92" of rain in Odessa as of 8 AM.
October 29, 2009 8:02 AM
 

jstonemo said:

Almost 1" of rain here in Greenwood. Backyard is a swamp.
October 29, 2009 8:17 AM
 

farmgirl said:

.38" of rain in La Cygne so far. I'm sure the guage will be filling up again soon.
October 29, 2009 8:18 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I have .35" so far, wishing I lived in Denver right now.....I would love to see that happen here again. :) Hope you feel better Gary.....it is sure going around. Have a great day weather team.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
October 29, 2009 8:33 AM
 

DPannell said:

As much as I hate rain I am so very thankful for rain instead of the mess they have in Colorado.  I'm hoping for a very dry Winter with absolutely not one flake!!! That would be the best Winter ever!

******************

I second that!

Jeremy

October 29, 2009 8:36 AM
 

Mark M said:

In Piper, KS (near I-435 & Donahoo) have 0.33" from the rain this morning.  Nice to get.....can't wait for the snow to come!!!
October 29, 2009 8:39 AM
 

spotter said:

well gary hope you get to feeling better.wow co what a snow storm i check weather reports from nws genesee co at 6.40 am 35.8 in on ground still snowing i hope our winter weather is a lot less.
October 29, 2009 8:49 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Poor Jeremy....you had to work last night and early this am. Yuck! What are the boys gonna do if you get sick??
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
October 29, 2009 8:59 AM
 

Zazel said:

"Can you imagine this storm being a bit farther south with cold air in place in our region later this season?  Or, this storm during the spring with more warm & moist air available for severe weather?"

Sadly, no, I can not imagine either scenario.  It has been so long since I've seen a powerhouse setup for our area that my mind has purged the memories.  Really, it's been so long that we talk about interesting weather in other locations since our own location hasn't seen significant severe, ice, or snow storms in over a year.  Perhaps that will be the year.  /holds breath.
October 29, 2009 9:04 AM
 

goodlife said:

323rd and hwy 7 between Garden City and Creighton.  Storm total as of 9:00AM---1.9"
October 29, 2009 9:05 AM
 

RDub said:

The way the warm air has surged up in front of this storm, I don't think it would be a snow producer here no matter what. Warm air has moved in all the way to the Canadian border--International Falls, MN is at 45 degrees right now.

-----------------

Rdub,

It would be....ONLY if the upper storm were a bit farther south, the flow stronger, and it ejected out just south of us instead of just south of Denver.  It isn't that farfetched of a possibility within the LRC theory. 

Gary

October 29, 2009 9:07 AM
 

JennIrat said:

Are we going to see any snow like that this year????  Please oh please
October 29, 2009 9:09 AM
 

RDub said:

This would be a good set up for t'storms in the spring, though...if we could clear out before the front got here.
October 29, 2009 9:17 AM
 

RDub said:

Jenn-- In a word, no. Kansas City has only had one snowfall >20" in recorded history.
October 29, 2009 9:31 AM
 

kristy said:

Here in SE Lee's Summit we,ve picked up .90 so far!!!!  Kristy
October 29, 2009 9:40 AM
 

supercell said:

RDub:  Remember, KCI is only one very small reporting station in a very large viewing area.  We have had 20" snowfalls nearby as recently as a few years ago.  

Ask Mamaof3girls how she remembers her historic late November snow from just a couple of years ago.  Pleasanton tipped the scale at almost 30" from that storm.  I would bet Mamaof3girls has somepictures she could post from that storm.

--------------------

This is a very good point. There are bigger snowstorms more often than what just KCI shows in their historical data.  They may not hit KCI, but somewhere within the viewing area.

Gary

October 29, 2009 9:43 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Oh I remember.....I dream of that 21" snowstorm happening again, and yes I had to go to work the next day and get out in it. It took a bob cat to dig me out, so I could leave.  Ya know I do have pictures but do not know how to post them. Maybe someday soon I can talk my hubby into doing it for me. My two older girls remember that snow well.....remembering most that Rudolph was buried by snow, lol!!! Ahhhhhh can't a girl can dream of that happening again in her lifetime?  :)
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
October 29, 2009 9:59 AM
 

RDub said:

Supercell, what is happening in Colorado right now is region-wide heavy snow. So you can't compare it to an isolated snow band like what happened in Pleasanton years ago (and is still pretty rare).

Besides, even if there is an isolated heavy snow band in the area, 99% of the area will miss it. The snow that brought 20"+ inches to pleasanton left KCI and most of the northland with nothing. The odds of that 20" snow falling on JennIrat's yard are incredibly small.
October 29, 2009 10:01 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

South Olathe, .35" so far.
October 29, 2009 10:36 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

This line of storms isn't moving west to east like in last night's Powercast, and it stretches all the way down almost to Waco. Will some of it weaken and fall apart as it moves SW to NE -- because if it doesn't, we're in for a very rainy day and evening. This midday break hasn't lasted very long. We're about to see rain again...
October 29, 2009 10:39 AM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

mamaof3girls, how long did it take to dig out with a bobcat (the mechanical kind, not the animal)?  :)

A long driveway makes for a long day digging out!
October 29, 2009 10:41 AM
 

flake said:

Odessa up to 1.19" as of 10:30...waiting for next round....
October 29, 2009 10:42 AM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

My dad and brother are in SE Wyoming (near Wheatland) hunting mule deer.  They have over 2 feet on the ground and it is still snowing.  Don't know if I'm more envious of the hunting or the snow?
October 29, 2009 10:43 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Well I'm sure you're not envious of the mule deer, JOCO!
October 29, 2009 10:46 AM
 

RDub said:

"There are bigger snowstorms more often than what just KCI shows in their historical data"

Correct, but that's true for every city. There's always one official reporting station that will miss big snows. Heck, Denver's airport is even further from most of the population that KCI is from ours.

When you make an apples-to-apples comparison of KC to other cities, using official data, you see that big snows are incredibly rare here. You can't say "Oh, KCI missed some snows" because that's true everywhere.
October 29, 2009 10:51 AM
 

RDub said:

Let me put this another way: I have lived in Johnson County for 12 years, and the biggest single snow I have received at my house has been 8".

The previous 10 years I lived in Charlottesville, Virginia. I can specifically remember 7 snows that were 8" or more in my yard. We may have had more and I just lost track. This includes 3 snows that were more than a foot.
October 29, 2009 10:55 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

It took the guy about 20 minutes to clean off our driveway.......we do not have a long one but it is wide.....it was quick I thought.
October 29, 2009 11:01 AM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

You are correct, Rdub.  Otherwise, one can just throw out all of the weather "normals".  There is an official weather reporting station for every metro area.  Ours happens to be KCI.

This brings up another interesting question.  Since most weather "normals" are derived from the most recent 10, 20, 0r 30-year period, what exact time frame are you referring to (question to anyone) at KCI?
October 29, 2009 11:02 AM
 

RDub said:

Joco, for extremes (records highs/lows) the data period goes back for as long as records are kept. So for many years of Kansas City data the reporting station was the downtown airport. Not sure where it was before the downtown airport was built.

October 29, 2009 11:10 AM
 

supercell said:

RDub,  I agree it's like threading a needle to get a 20 incher to happen in our area and is indeed extremely rare.  That's why the storms are historic when they happen.  However, my point is it can happen and has happened recently.  I just caution using one single reporting station as a basis to expand weather as a whole for our area.  The dynamics of our low elevation and placement in North America for storm tracks make for wide variations in single storm events.  

Anyone new to our area that reads historic information from KCI only will not be aware that some of our viewing areas have received historic snowfalls this decade.  Pleasanton is just one example.  Sedalia, St. Joseph, Columbia, south Overland Park, Lake of the Ozarks, Maryville, have all received 12+ inch recorded snows this decade.   Someone in our DMA will receive a decent snow this year.  Will be it be 12+?  Odds say no, but someone will receive significantly more than someone else in our DMA.  It happens almost every year.  See St. Joseph of a couple years ago who received 50+ inches of snow in one season while KCI struggled to reach average.  This is a difference of only 30 miles but significantly different weather.  That's just the dynamics of our portion of the world.

Makes it fun for us and maddening for meteorologists!
October 29, 2009 11:11 AM
 

BuildersSnow said:

0.90 total so far now in Leavenworth (0.45 at 7am plus another .45 fro
7am to 11am) at times came down pretty hard.  When are the winds suppose to pick up?
October 29, 2009 11:14 AM
 

momof3 said:

Oooooooooooh!  I want that snow!
October 29, 2009 11:24 AM
 

momof3 said:

Oooooooooooh!  I want that snow!
October 29, 2009 11:24 AM
 

RDub said:

Supercell, if you broaden the area you're talking about to include Maryville, Lake of the Ozarks, Columbia, etc. then of course you increase the chances of a big snow. You're talking about an area that is something like 30,000 square miles in size.

However, I think that people are more concerned with what happens in their own backyard, or their own neighborhood. For this purpose, using KCI as the location is as good as any, since it represents one small point in a larger area. If you look at any one point in the area, the odds of a 20" snow happening at that point in any given year are less than 1%.
October 29, 2009 11:30 AM
 

RDub said:

"ONLY if the upper storm were a bit farther south, the flow stronger, and it ejected out just south of us instead of just south of Denver"

Wow, Gary, you are certainly stretching the definition of the term "recurring" here. It's a recurring storm, except for the fact that it was farther south, had stronger flow, and ejected in a location over 500 miles removed from the last time. How exactly is this a "recurring" event?
October 29, 2009 11:32 AM
 

twinkiekid said:

Is there a good place to see lightning strike data?  A friend is going to one of the high school football games tonight and is concerned about the thunderstorm chances.  Do you think that the metro area will just see rain or will we see a little lightning tonight?
October 29, 2009 11:37 AM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:12 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:12 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:12 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:12 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:13 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I
October 29, 2009 12:13 PM
 

Bizarro Jerry said:

RDub said:
"ONLY if the upper storm were a bit farther south, the flow stronger, and it ejected out just south of us instead of just south of Denver"

Wow, Gary, you are certainly stretching the definition of the term "recurring" here. It's a recurring storm, except for the fact that it was farther south, had stronger flow, and ejected in a location over 500 miles removed from the last time. How exactly is this a "recurring" event?

....

I agree...I'm curious Gary:  If that storm could produce a huge snowstorm here and would support your theory, I'm hoping you can elaborate on some statements you've made several times in recent months.  

You've stated that your cycling theory governs the big-picture synoptic scale of weather and it is also traceable to mesoscale (like complexes of thunderstorms) and even microscale (that's on the order of a few miles).

If the current storm could be part of your theory and dump snow on KC, it would have to move hundreds of miles, temps would need to drop dramatically, and a lot of other big-picture variables would have to change.  How is it that the theory ties synoptic, meso- and micro-scale features, but also allows such flexibility??
October 29, 2009 12:14 PM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

I THINK ALL YOU SNOW LOVERS ARE CRAZY. TO WISH 21 INCHES OF SNOW INTO OUR CITY WITH THE RAMIIFFICATIONS THAT WOULD CAUSE THINK OF ALL THE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND HEAR ATTAKCS BY PEOPLE TRYING TO SHOVEL THE STUFF , YOU  SNOW LOVERS NEED TO MOVE TO PLACES LIKE DENVER OR MINNESOTA AND TAKE THE SNOW AND COLD WITH YOU. I HATE WINTER SUNNY AND 70 OUR MY WISH .
October 29, 2009 12:16 PM
 

stanse said:

Gary, how would you grade the team's forecast for this storm?   It seems to be a much more significant rain producer than you guys called for, compared to another station.  This has been the case with the last couple of storms, it seems.
For instance, last night, Jeremy forecasted scattered showers in the morning, which turned out to be > 1" of rain for many parts of the metro.
From your blog 2 days ago
"As the northern part of this storm moves out we will likely get that one band of showers/thunderstorms. So, we have two more days to talk about this storm, but the impact will likely be small"
October 29, 2009 12:28 PM
 

MCIRamp said:

I agree with RDub- I did 20 years plus hard time in Madison, Wisconsin,"home of snow" and the biggest snow we ever had there was 17.3 inches in one event. That was a Top 3 record back in 1991 or 1992, and I think it has since been eclipsed in the 2007 snow year. So 20 inches is rare even for parts of Wisconsin, "the home of snow". I don't count Lake Effect snows as that is more of a localized phenomena depending on which way the wind blows. You could sneeze across Lake Michigan and get a quick 3 inches. I really think you have to have a lot of things come together (many of the things RDub has stated) perfectly to get that kind of snowfall around here. But the latitude around here is better adjusted than in Wisconsin! I know Jeremy thinks so... ;)  
October 29, 2009 12:28 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Here's my snow prediction for this winter....there will be a 12"+ snowfall somewhere in the KSHB viewing area....but there will not be a 12"+ snow at KCI, MKC, or either of the Johnson County airports.  Snow lovers, prepare for another winter of disappointment in Kansas City.

I basically agree with RDub's series of comments this morning.
October 29, 2009 12:31 PM
 

momof3 said:

People, please turn off the cap lock.  That is so annoying!
October 29, 2009 1:30 PM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

WINTERSTINKS - I agree.  If I want snow, I'll go to the mountains or Minnesota.

stanse - I also agree.  Forecast for this storm hasn't been correct since they first started talking about it last Friday. "This will bring us our strongest cold front of the season so far and it will be cold enough to snow by the time the storm is exiting the region."  That's from last Friday's blog entry.

Doesn't look like there is any cold air behind this storm ("cold" air I would think would at least get us into the 20s for lows).  In fact, we shouldn't go below freezing for at least the next 10 days, as a zonal pattern is going to take over until at least next weekend.  Whatever your definition of "Indian Summer" is, it will be here starting Saturday and lasting for 7-10 days.
October 29, 2009 1:32 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Sounds like you could have Strep or maybe H1N1, I just got over H1N1 a couple wks ago, well, I think. I had all the symptoms.
October 29, 2009 1:53 PM
 

RDub said:

Funny thing about Virginia was, some winters we would get basically no snow. Only rain. Then the next winter, December would bring a 10" snow followed by 12" about 3 days later.

October 29, 2009 1:56 PM
 

morrell said:

 momof3 said:
Oooooooooooh!  I want that snow!

Go get it
October 29, 2009 2:06 PM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

Really, Andrew.  That's pretty much how the hype gets started.  Pretty soon, every time someone sneezes, they have H1N1.

Next time you think you have the flu, go get tested.
October 29, 2009 2:12 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:17 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:18 PM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

70s for sure (by next Friday) f00dl3!  80s possible.
October 29, 2009 2:19 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:24 PM
 

davidmcg said:

0.40" so far in McLouth KS, not over yet, starting to rain again as another band rises from the south.  Gary, rest, chicken noodle soup, vitamin C young man.
October 29, 2009 2:25 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:33 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:35 PM
 

oldpat said:

.33" of rain in Kearney so far-looking forward to the 7 days of sunshine in the forecast-very tired of the rain.  How many Thursdays has it rained this month?
October 29, 2009 2:36 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 2:36 PM
 

reafamily said:

We start our district football game at 7 tonight with senior festivities just beforehand. Are you still thinking steady rain at that time or are we looking at downpours with lightning?

Monica, I remember that snow too! We had 26" at our house in Adrian.

Thanks
Pat
October 29, 2009 2:46 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Hope you fell better soon Gary-

JP
October 29, 2009 2:55 PM
 

JPnKC said:

And I hope you "FEEL" better too-- JP ;)
October 29, 2009 2:56 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

I'm thinking f00dl3's enter key got stuck somewhere along the way lol..

Snowlovers unite! Let's just go whole hog and hope for a nice big monster snow that gets us all caught up for a while.   Biggest snow I've seen in my entire life was in Branson a few years back. 18 inches.  Surely fate and a little luck will deliver a good storm here sooner or later.

Don't think I'm going to win my October bet this time though.

On the recurring storm item- As I understand it, "recurring" in this case means that the storm will likely be a standard part of the LRC pattern.  It's not going to pop in the same place every time of course.  A distance change of 500 miles really isn't all the much if you consider that a large storm can reach that size under the right conditions.  A cold cover of 100 miles or so is not unusual at all.

Everybody go easy on the wet roads today!
October 29, 2009 2:59 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

For some reason it keeps reposting when I hit refresh on Opera Mobile on my phone - sorry!
October 29, 2009 3:12 PM
 

RDub said:

Darkwolf, that's circular logic. It's recurring because it's part of the LRC. It's part of the LRC because it's recurring.  

The lack of defined criteria for what makes a feature "recurring" or not is one of the more substantial weaknesses in the LRC as it is now described.

f00fl3, make sure the page you're refreshing doesn't have "postcomment = true" or something like that in the page name and it should be ok.
October 29, 2009 3:28 PM
 

juba said:

Very heavy rain here at JoCo airport.
October 29, 2009 3:29 PM
 

juba said:

WOW, it sounds like a TRAIN is coming through yard!
October 29, 2009 3:31 PM
 

momof3 said:

If I didn't have to go to work I would go get the snow.  May have to.  Feel better soon Gary!
October 29, 2009 3:55 PM
 

Bizarro Jerry said:

Wonder if we can make a few more 80 degree days with this upcoming warm pattern?  Would be great for jogging!
October 29, 2009 3:55 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Interesting discussion today.  

Rdub - can you elaborate on this?  "The lack of defined criteria for what makes a feature "recurring" or not is one of the more substantial weaknesses in the LRC as it is now described. "

I could provide examples of research papers accepted for the MJO and other oscillations that may struggle to meet your standards based on this statement.  I am seeking clarification as to what you think is needed or reasonable.  Just seeking info here...

JOCO - ""This will bring us our strongest cold front of the season so far and it will be cold enough to snow by the time the storm is exiting the region."  

Yes, that statement was made nearly a week ago.  At that time models were showing this possible.  Perhaps a bit of modelitis.  Phasing of this storm has created a much different setup [IMO]

stance - "For instance, last night, Jeremy forecasted scattered showers in the morning, which turned out to be > 1" of rain for many parts of the metro. "

http://tinyurl.com/yj2n2ot

Looks to be about a quarter to half inch through the metro according to the AHPS.  


Anyway - as the LRC is still setting up, if this storm is part of the pattern, it easily could shift next time through as the longwaves are just now setting up.  If indeed this storm has not fallen into the new longwave, then as it returns and does hit the longwaves, it is quite possible it would be quite a bit different.

Trying to make any assertions that this storm or last storm or whatever pattern in the last 60 days is part of the new LRC would  be incorrect as there is more to the LRC than just the pattern or cycle...longwaves make a huge difference.

Bizarro - the MJO is generally defined as being between 30-60 days, yet much of the scientific community accepts this.  That seems "flexible" using your terminology.  
October 29, 2009 4:15 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

My use of recurring was related to the fact that the storm type is expected to be seen again.  This is assuming that the LRC pattern holds this particular storm.

This picky part of it was referring more to the storm's location since there was debate on how a storm could be recurring if it didn't hit the same spot each time.
October 29, 2009 5:13 PM
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