NBC Action Communities

So far we have 1.09" at near Johnson County Exeuctive Airport. Our backyrad is really starting to fill up with water and the courtyard at where I go during the day was really flodding also. Drive safe everyone!

I know I shoutldn't have high hopes in the FA forecast but it is still fun to read, 20"?!

"January 2010
1st-3rd. Fair, cold. 4th-7th. Milder, then snowy from Rockies east. 8th-11th. Fair, then stormy. Heavy snows across Plains, up to 20" possible. 12th-15th. Fair, cold. 16th-19th. Light snow across Plains, windy. 20th-23rd. Becoming stormy, milder. 24th-27th. Stormy Texas. Snow Southern Plains. 28th-31st. Fair, then showers.

February 2010
1st-3rd. Light snow Colorado, Plains. 4th-7th. Major storm brings heavy snow from Montana east. Accumulations of 8"-16". 8th-11th. Clearing, colder. 12th-15th. Fair, then flurries Plains. 16th-19th. Stormy over the Rockies. 20th-23rd. Snowstorm for Plains heaviest in Kansas."

Hey Gary

As you know we've moved from the metro out to Western Idaho.   As of this writing, it's snowing outside.   Not sticking...  

Have a great afternoon and stay dry..

Bill and Melissa
Weiser, ID

Scott said:  "Bizarro - the MJO is generally defined as being between 30-60 days, yet much of the scientific community accepts this.  That seems "flexible" using your terminology."

The scientists that have researched and published documentation about the MJO don't claim mesoscale and microscale features repeating...yet that is the level of precision that Gary claims, thus my questioning.

Furthermore, MJO has undergone extensive research by multiple universities and has been the subject of multiple peer-reviewed articles in the scientific literature.

So if you want to keep comparing, it's apples to oranges...

And my question isn't about the MJO - it is about the LRC.

I am curious about what Gary means by his theory supporting the repetition of microscale and mesoscale features and how that sort of repetition dovetails with his claims that this storm could repeat as a snowstorm (if only all the major factors change...as RDub pointed out).

I'm looking at the dry slot on the radar and coaching it to get its butt on up here. It figure it will reach our place within the hour. Some warm temps would be nice tomorrow, maybe help this water drain off the lawns. Our property looks like an aerial view of Minnesota. We're the Land of 10,000 Puddles!  And it only took 1.05" to do it this time.

And again, my heart goes out to the farmers, whose job is hard enough without this nonsense.

323rd and hwy 7 between Garden City and Creighton  storm total 2"  raining heavily as of 5:00 PM

Good Evening Gary!

So far at 115th and Donahoo in Piper, Kansas we have .66 in the rain guage. Still coming down but much lighter then it was just a little while ago. Also we are at our "high" temp of the day of 61.7. Looking forward to drying out a bit and seeing the sunshine again.

Bryan

Bizarro - read a bit more about the MJO - it is very much associated to mesoscale/convective activity.  

My comparison is not of the LRC to the MJO.  Clearly they are different animals.   My point is how variability or flexibility is accepted in one type of atmospheric cycle, yet not in another..that is what puzzles me.  

"if only all the major factors change".  It is still missed that the longwaves have yet to set up.  If they set up this year to be a bit further one direction or another, the waves will also move.  Also, as the jet strengthens, waves will deepen.  This will affect the latitude while still maintaining the integrity of the pattern.

Hi Gary, looks to be about 2.2 inches in grain valley. Of course still counting. :)

Wow, the rain just stopped, and I went out to check the gauge. We had another INCH in the last 45 minutes, bringing our total to 2.05".  This storm didn't take the track we saw on the forecasts. It went southwest to northeast, not west to east, and it was a much longer period of rainfall than I had expected. Correct me if I'm wrong, but did we see anything like this last spring??

We received 1.32" total for the 99th & Antioch area.   It has slowed to a drizzle after numerous downpours and I believe I see blue sky peeking through out there!

.99" of rain here in Kearney, starting to wind down, but then again I heard thunder!!

Right now we are at 1.73" in N. Lees Summit a couple of miles south of the 470/70 interchange.  I will update again in a couple of hours.

Anthony

So Scott, can you tell me how the LRC contains microscale and mesoscale features that repeat?  

I hear a lot about long waves and all that, but there is also this smaller scale stuff that Gary often touts.  He clearly doesn't want to step up to the question, but you seem a bit more willing to converse about specifics and I appreciate that.  If you could fill me in on the microscale and mesoscale features of the LRC, that'd be cool.

1.10 inches in North Leavenworth right outside of Fort Leavenworth

1.45" at 435 & Shawnee Msn Pkwy.  Just a little sun peaked through before it went down.

1.07" in La Cygne.

Sloshing through the barn yard I lost my mud boot... I hate a wet, muddy sock! I even have gravel down where the animals feed and the water is just ponding on top of it.

1.33 in SW Grain Valley.

Jeff

.75" here Gary.  

Hard to believe that is all we had considering water standing everywhere in Liberty!

1.60in in SE Lee's Summit

1.15 inches of rain near NE Vivion and Davidson in the Northland.

Just noticed an automated site about a mile away has almost .5" more than I did!  Hard to believe in such a short distance.

Bizarro,
Let me see if I can help on this one.  Once the cycles are figured out and you know how the storm system are going to track you can forecast for much smaller regions with each storm system.  The long wave troughs and ridges set-up and our storm systems will track and mature in the same areas.  I think it was 2 winters ago, maybe three, but stay with me.  Our winter storms would track right over KC.  This would cause the heavy stripe of snow from Wichita to Topeka.  So each winter storm that is where that heavy stripe would set-up.  Even if the models say KC will get blasted we knew the heavy line would be from Wichita to Topeka.  I hope that makes sense and helps.  Have a great evening.
Doug

Also I think what Scott is trying to say is that the MJO isn't very cut and dry, but accepted.  

Just watched the weather channel coverage on the tornadoes down in Louisiana there was some incredible photage in Shreveport of a steeple off a church downtown that fell on top of a car.

Man Dave C...quite a difference in our rainfall total...what part of Grain Valley do you live? Normally we're not to far off, I have a CoCoRahs rain gauge...so confident that my 1.33 is acurate but I know a few miles can make a big difference sometimes.

Jeff

Bizarro - as you know, I am more than happy to share what I know and have learned.  I openly admit I have much more to learn.  Clearly atmospheric science is a very complex field.

That said, honestly, I am not clear on the microscale level and the LRC.  This isn't to say that it isn't there, but my depth of knowledge in the operational side of meteorology isn't as developed at this point.  Gary will have to answer to this one.

As far as mesoscale, I have a better understanding.  It has been shown that there is a positive correlation between upper level dynamics and the reflection at the surface.  As the upper level patterns become known, one can begin to correlate precipitation and temperature regimes in like.

Here is a related interesting article explaining how in the Alps, in a study, they assert relationships between the teleconnections [specifically the NAO] and how it links through the atmospheric circulation patterns and how it relates to specific mesoscale regimes.

http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/NL15/caccia_quadrelli_oral.pdf

Certainly, there is much more to all of this that what meets the eye.

Scott,
Ok sorry about last week dude, stress gets to me.

----------------------

Bizzaro Jerry, Scott, Doug, and everyone else,

We believe the weather pattern cycles and repeats on a rather regular time scale. Every year is unique according to the LRC.  Now, this is really on the synoptic scale on the order of 500 to 1000s of miles.  The mesoscale and microscale aspects are somewhat like what Doug (Joplin Wx Guy) is saying.  When a storm or a trough repeats in later cycles it will have similar micro and mesoscale aspects to it that are related to that years LRC.  The way a storm kicks out, the pattern of precipitation that forms within a storm, and other smaller scale features end up following the "rules" that become established for the season.  There was a year about 7 or 8 year ago when Joplin was hit by 4 major snowstorms in Doug's viewing area. By the third one we know exactly where the precipitation would fall to the point of me drawing on the air a line showing that the precipitation would not move north of this line.  That line was within a few miles (on the order of 10-30 miles) of being in the same spot with all four of those major snowstorms. That year Jopin had around 40 or 50 inches of snow while we were left with around 10 inches.  This is an example of micro, meso, and synoptic scale features when you understand the true nature of that year's LRC.  It takes some time to figure this all out.

Gary

1.25" here west of Smithville, but the standing water everywhere makes it look like a lot more.

Gary,
I want that year back, 51 inches at my house that winter.  I will give you a call around 8:45, we have to do some taping for fox because of baseball.

Warm up indeed Gary.  Here in McLouth KS we are up to 62.2 and overall we received 0.57" of rain.  We had several periods of very heavy rain which would lead most to believe the rainfall totals should be more.  But, they are what they are.  What started slow, finished fast.  Otherwise, with the rainfall rates there might have been some very widespread flooding in the area.

Interesting - thanks for the follow-ups Gary, JoplinGuy and Scott.  I appreciate the on-point responses (particularly absent the demurs of "just follow along as the next cycle sets up and see how it goes...")

I'm looking forward to you drawing those lines this winter.  Knowing me, you should know that I drive a hard bargain and I'll be looking for you to make some of those mesoscale calls without simply relying on model progs!

I guess the part I'm confused by is when you give the example above from 7 or 8 years ago...it sounds astounding...but if I look at a different year's data, it doesn't look as convincing.  For instance, last year...there were some pretty big storms within the viewing area, but some of the storms went north and socked areas by St. Joe while others went south and dropped more snow by or around KC...so even though a storm was considered the "same" storm from one cycle to the next, it didn't always follow that same path and make those mesoscale similarities.

I guess the hard time I have with it is that it seems as though if a storm does double up on the same area, it becomes a "see, look - it fits the repeating cycle pattern all the way down to the mesoscale!!" but if it misses by 50 or 100 or 500 miles, then it is explained away as being "not every repeat has the same features at the surface...look at the long term long waves instead - that is where the LRC really exists."

It seems to argue both ways is to really fudge the theory a bit and make it look more robust than it really is.  

As far as the Alps, I woulnd't be surprised at all to see similar mesoscale features set up there on given NAO patterns since the geographic influence is so incredibly significant...we don't have that kind of orographic influences here, so much more of our atmospheric phenomena is driven more largely by pure atmospheric dynamics versus terrain...so I guess it seems to me the article can be distinguished from KC in that important regard, and thus the difference in approaches can be explained.


I'm still a little unclear on the microscale features so if you have time to elaborate on those, I'd love to hear them.  

.66" of rain here in this part of SW Lawrence (23rd & Kasold).  Temp wise we are currently at 62 and have been at that spot since around 4 PM.

A bit of wind has just now started back up after several hours of little to none.

Granted - Bizarro, we are not in the Alps.  The idea of associating the NAO which sets up thousands of miles away from the Alps from a circulation pattern seems significant where the orographic influence seems more specific to the precipitation patterns than the circulation pattern.

I still think that knowing the synoptic level trends can lend to trends in the mesoscale.

As far as the both ways argument, yes...I see your point.  I have some thoughts on this..perhaps I will elaborate further tomorrow.

In Raytown we've had 2.06"

We are at 1.75" and a warm 66.7 degrees in N. Lees Summit just a couple miles south of the 470/70 interchange.  Lots of standing water around here too.

Anthony

Gary / JoplinWxMan -

That year was 2002/03

If memory serves me right, that was an El Nino year as well.

PingBack from http://isnews.org/2009/nbc-action-weather-blog-torrential-rain-totals.html

So, I was laying in bed this morning, kept hearing a noise, couldn't place it.  Half awake, half asleep.  Kept thinking, that sounds like a coffee pot brewing.  I don't have a coffee pot.  So I decided to get up and investigate.  I threw my legs over the side of the bed, and at that exact time, a huge flash of lightening, scared the crap out of me!  Finally figured out it was thunder rumbling that I heard.  What a way to wake up!

So question.  If October is the set up for LRC, and it has been so wet, does this mean winter is going to be active and wet as well?  Just curious.

frigate, I live near nelson & bucker tarsney, south side of the city. We both could be right.. I have a walmart 1.75 one.. scientfic? nah, but good enough to get a ball park amount. :)

I always think it's weird when it warms up after dark. I just took the dog out and if it wasn't for the drizzle, it would be a beautiful evening!

Is it possible that the LRC is actually a ongoing pattern phase that just gets slightly adjusted each seasonal change? I see hints of storms in this LRC that were in last LRC as well - just with the longwaves in different locations. For example, this storm I pointed out right now I also pointed out that I was debating if it was a 37 or 51 day cycle given we had similar setups both 37 and 51 days ago. However, I did further digging and 74 days ago (August 15th), and 111 days ago (July 9th) we had a similar deep low pressure area in about the same location give or take northern or southern alignment (due to jetstream strength).

Examples - given a 37 day LRC length:

Now: http://tinyurl.com/ygexduq
37 days ago: http://tinyurl.com/ykmp7be
74 days ago: http://tinyurl.com/yhhkj5l
111 days ago: http://tinyurl.com/ylbo3tb

Also note on May 31st there was a Surface low in that very familiar place but no upper level low:   http://tinyurl.com/yfzqfyo

---------------

And I see no relation at all to last year's LRC. What just happened with this storm should be a strong indication of a very different weather pattern that is about to happen.  Last year would not have even come close to producing a storm in Colorado like just happened.

Gary

"JOCOWX145 said:
Really, Andrew.  That's pretty much how the hype gets started.  Pretty soon, every time someone sneezes, they have H1N1.

Next time you think you have the flu, go get tested."


Nope, My doc doesn't test for it, it's all hype. He said NOT to get the vaccine, once you get it, you can't get it again. Several other docs have told us the same thing.

If you had the actual flu then you couldn't get it again but if it wasn't the flu then you are still susceptible.  Seems a little irresponsible not to test for it when tamiflu can really help you if it is in fact the flu.