NBC Action Communities

.53 in Belton.

Gary- Thank you for the reminder about the time change.  I have to work that night which means after working all night until 2am I have to go back to 1am and do that hour all over again.  Hardest night of the year hands down.  The winds here are unbelievable right now.  Sounds like a hurricane out there.  I see some warmer temps coming which is good for those who love it but I sure hope it doesn't last long as I want the cold and snow!

So Momof3,
Let me see if I get this straight.. You have to work an extra hour because of the time change? Do u at least get paid for it? I feel for you if you do have to work that extra hour!

This morning's total for Olathe said 1.06", but we had 2.05" in our rain gauge yesterday. One inch of that fell between 5-6PM.  

The winds here are blustery, but nothing to get excited about. As long as they're under 40mph and the patio furniture is tied down, I'm okay with that.

Ok, catching up to a response from an old blog: "Rdub - can you elaborate on this?  "The lack of defined criteria for what makes a feature "recurring" or not is one of the more substantial weaknesses in the LRC as it is now described. "

I could provide examples of research papers accepted for the MJO and other oscillations that may struggle to meet your standards based on this statement.  I am seeking clarification as to what you think is needed or reasonable.  Just seeking info here..."

It's very simple, really. What are the criteria used to determine if a certain feature is a "recurrance" of a feature that appeared previously? In other words, how can you say that feature C is a recurrance of feature A and not feature B?

I'm not really sure if the MJO or other "oscillations" are relevant, because the LRC is not really an oscillation. Regardless, there are generally specific, quantitative criteria to describe which phase of an oscillation is present. So, what are the specific criteria used to determine if a feature is a recurrance of another?

Scott, here's an example of specific criteria for looking at the MJO: http://crest.ccny.cuny.edu/rscg/Products/Tromeur/indexMJO.html

Or how about the CPC: "Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analysis is applied to pentad 200-hPa velocity potential (CHI200) anomalies equatorward of 30°N during ENSO-neutral and weak ENSO winters (November-April) in 1979-2000. See CPC ENSO classification...Ten MJO indices are the minus projection of the pentad CHI200 anomalies onto the ten time-lagged patterns of the first EEOF of pentad CHI200 anomalies...Anomalies are based on the 1979-1995 period, and each index is normalized by its standard deviation during ENSO-neutral and weak ENSO winters (November-April) in 1979-2000."

Now, Scott, surely you're not trying to claim that you or other LRC proponents have put forth something this specific in terms of your data analysis, are you?

Oh boy!!!  I can hardly wait for Scott's answer!

Actual quantitative data to support the LRC!

I'd be much more happy with a 7-day forecast that was accurate.  Where is all the cold air that was supposed to be here (that you forecast last weekend)?

Where were you thinking the low was going to be today?  According to the current surface map, it's already in western MN.  That's a good 500 miles from here (if it was sitting on top of us).

My point being:  Accuracy is all relative.  Don't spend all of your time trying to prove/disprove a cycling theory when 7 days out you can't get it right.

Weatherfreak01- Yes we have to work an extra hour but we do at least get paid for it.  It is hard enough at night anyway but to have to go back and do that hour all over again is soooooooo hard.  Night shift nurses hate fall back of daylight savings time. I get it every year but I somehow never get spring forward when we only have to work 7 hours.  

Mom of 3,  any chance you or other nurses would be willing to do a story with us about working that weird extra hour?  If so please email me or Gary.  anthony@nbcactionnews.com or lezak@nbcactionnews.com    Thanks, Brett

You have to have a degree in meotorology to read some of the comments on this blog. i keep mine simple i only have a ba in history so i guess that makes me unscientific 70 and sunny is my answer to all of waethers problems im glad about the warm november keep that nasty cold and snow away for it truly says winter stinks

Ouch, that came off a bit harsh.

Really just wanted to point out that the long range forecast last weekend wasn't very good.  Also, wanted to say that long range forecasting is very difficult.  All the more reason why a "cycling" theory doesn't work for me very well.  Too many variables with weather.

my gauge in Rock Port shows .7 inches of rain.

momof3-  I am a night shift RN also. And for the last 9 years I have only worked weekends, which meant I worked every year on both time changes. I loved the spring when you work an hour less, but the fall is the worst. It is so awful to turn those clocks back and know you are adding another hour to your shift. This year, I am working only every other weekend, so for the first time in 9 years, I am NOT working on the fall time change!   I am so excited about that!

oh, and momof3, lucky you to only have to work 9 hours.  I work 12 hour shifts, which means, 13 hours for me on those fall time change nights!

JOCO, I'm no fan of 7-day forecasts either. Heck, just look how often the 3-day forecasts change. No matter where I've lived or what team was doing the forecasting, the batting average is not that great. But that said, I'm hoping like crazy that the current 7-day is on target because it's beautiful.

As for your question about the cold front that was supposed to move through...have you been outside in the last few hours?  It's sunny and beautiful -- but nasty cold out there!  

Is it just me or do the last few GFS runs look very familiar... :)

What do you see f00dl3 I'm on the cell and can veiw

Winterstinks, I'm not trying to bog down the blog with too much detail. It's really more for illustration. It's a way to show exactly how much needs to be done with the LRC theory before it can be thought of as an accepted feature of meteorology, comparable to the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO.

The first papers on the MJO were published in a major peer-reviewed journal almost 40 years ago. So far the LRC has been published on 2 or 3 blogs. The LRC may get there some day, but...

-----------------

Rdub,

Yes, we have a long way to go.  And, hopefully we can get something ready for peer review within a year. I have made presentations on the LRC at two conferences, one AMS and one NWA.  But, I have yet to write up a paper for peer review or publishing. Maybe I will have the time to get this done within the next year.

Gary

Chicago-it's all relative.  It's in the low 50s for air temp.  Any 40+ mph wind when the temp is 70 or below is going to feel "cold".  I expected it to be "cold enough to snow", which it isn't remotely close to.

gary and weather team

In central missouri I have had 1.8 inches from the last storm. This brings my total rainfall for the month of October to 11.55 inches. Does anyone know what the month record for rainfall is?  I would think we are closing in on atleast a top ten wettest months. Can anyone tell me when the winds may lay down?

Thanks
Jason

Gary-
I am coaching a HS football game tonight against a team that we would prefer not throw the ball.  How windy will it be after 7pm?  25mph gusts....I hope?

Kimberly- email Brett or Gary about the working an extra hour.  They are trying to maybe do a story!  Pretty neat!  I am very lucky I am only doing nine instead of twelve.  Thank goodness!

Gary, looking forward to seeing something more concrete. Good luck.

Olathe Jay...it's probably only going to get less blustery as the evening wears on.

Hmmm...a story about a nursing staff re-living one hour in the middle of the night shift....they can call it..."Déja Flu"!

Here's what I would like to see on the LRC:  A 45 day calendar with general dates of when vorts should come through (give or take a day) and general temperature ranges for each week.  The calendar can be update every 45 days to take into account what is learned from that seasons LRC.

This would provide us an actual broad guideline to measure the LRC.  Storms don't have to be exact on their day and temps don't have to come within 3 degrees, but we should have a pretty good measuring stick at the end of 45 days whether or not vorts come through when forecasted (with or without precepitation) and whether or not temperatures were in the general ballpark.

At this elemenatry level, a 45 day LRC calendar should be pretty easy to layout.  I would expect the first caledar to come out on Nov. 16 which would be about the end of the current 1st cycle of this year's LRC.

Any takers from the LRC forecasting group?  As a benefit to this exercise, it may help Gary with his paper.

Sure is windy today, brnach's were getting blown off trees and in the  countryside, in southern OP near Mills Farm there were many pine trees snapped in half!!! Poor them...

Wow Juba, those must have been unhealthy pines then. Healthy evergreens shouldn't do that in this level of wind. They're usually very flexible. There are thousands and thousands of sick pines around, victims of about three different pests and diseases.

Pines just don't do that well in this area overall...soil is too alkaline.

RDub, it also gets too hot for pines...except the six monsters across from the low end of our septic drainfield. Those bad boys are REAL happy and have grown over three feet in the 2 years we've been here. Sadly, three of them are Scots pines and are doomed. It's only a matter of time.

JOCO - too tired tonight to go into a bunch of details...I will have to try another day.

As far as "Actual quantitative data to support the LRC! ", there are many examples on the LRC blog in taking quantitative analysis using 500mb height charts as well as other means.

Certainly, there are many different methods to use..and more needs to be done...

Chicagoexpat- Tooooooo funny!!!!!!!!

I used to be a weekend night RN and worked those shifts as well, and yes it does make for a long night, only thing that could make it worse is a full moon!  I am so glad I don't do it anymore!  lol.  

Quite honestly if you doubt the LRC just look at 500 mb charts from 37 days ago and loop them all together... do some research on your own. I posted a good comparison of 37 days, 74 days ago, 111 days ago, and even an image of May '09 next to last post on last night's blog entry. There are just too many things going on up there that match up to be totally discounted as non existant. Signature storms show up more visibly to the eye, but even general air mass propagation shows up as well. True - it would make it difficult to forecast in advance - but given the same scenario and if the LRC is in fact 37 days this year, I can - and be quoted on this - say there is a 95% chance that there will be a major storm system over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado on the weekend of December 4-5-6 and as long as it takes a similar track to the lows 37, 74, and 111 days ago (with stronger jet factored in) - Kansas City has a good shot at at least 2-4" of snow on the 6th and 7th of December.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, then I'm right because there is a recognizable pattern with lows dropping in and digging - further south as the jet stream gets stronger - but in the same general north-south juxtaposition.

Just in case you don't want to dig for them here they are:

Yesterday: http://tinyurl.com/ygexduq
37 days before yesterday (1 cycle): http://tinyurl.com/ykmp7be
74 days before yesterday (2 cycles): http://tinyurl.com/yhhkj5l
111 days before yesterday (3 cycles): http://tinyurl.com/ylbo3tb

May 31st there was a Surface low in that very familiar place but no upper level low:   http://tinyurl.com/yfzqfyo

You be the judge. I'm getting all these images from http://weather.unisys.com/archive/eta_init/  and the more and more I loop them, the more and more it looks like a train moving further south over time with the strengthening and weakening phases fluctuating position based upon the strength of the jet stream at the time of year.

I too am one of those weekend option RN's that get stuck working those time changes...and I can tell ya it STINKS to turn the clocks back and work that 13 hour shift, errrr! I am SOOO lucky that this weekend I actually have off, so I am missing it for the first time in YEARS! If only I had some kind of interesting story but really I do not, other than the dread that comes when the time comes to move the hands back....:( Doesn't matter if you are an RN, RT, Lab or Tech....it stinks!! But we do get paid for it.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

I didn't realize there was a full moon also!  YUCK!  

Ohh  Monica I am so happy to be on days since moving to KS. I worked nocs forever and in Az it didn't matter. But in CA we got paid in the fall and lost an hour's pay in the spring.