NBC Action Communities

Blogs
Welcome to NBC Action Communities Sign in | Join | Help
in
Back to NBCActionNews.com Home Blogs

NBC Action Weather Blog

Warm Start to November

Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most in-depth and accurate forecast!

Good morning bloggers,

We will begin with the October statistics.  It was the third coldest October in Kansas City's recorded history.  The 3.66" of rain at KCI is much lower than many locations just to the south and southeast where close to 8 inches of rain fell during the month. 

October Statistics

  • Highest Temperature:  76º (1st)
  • Lowest Temperature:  31º (18th)
  • Total Rainfall:  3.63”(+ 0.33”)
  • Days with rain:  12 days with at least a trace
  • Average Temperature:  50.6º (-6.2º)
  • 3rd Coldest October on Record

With the third coldest October behind us, November is starting off very differently.  The jet stream has retreated north with another ridge aloft forecast to move over the middle part of the nation by the end of the week.  This will result in another substantial warm-up by Thursday into the weekend. 

The LRC continues to set up and reveal its identity. What does this overall weather pattern mean for the winter?  Will the cold October anomaly return?  Remember, it isn't just one day, one week, one month. The cycle length will likely be somewher between 35 and 75 days and this has not been identified yet.  We now know that after a cold October there is another part of this weather pattern that may very well be rather warm.  We are analyzing the overall pattern and our winter forecast will be coming out on November 16th, two weeks from tonight.  You can learn more about my theory at www.LRCWeather.com. Click on the blog over there as we talk about some of the details of this developing weather pattern.

I went trick or treating with my Godson Skyler Penner Saturday night.  Here is a picture of Skyler in his Thomas the Train costume......pretty scary!

And, during the high school football season Lance Veeser, our weekend sports anchor, has one of us toss the football to him in front of the sports set on Friday nights.  It was my turn Friday night and my throw didn't quite get to him.  But, it wasn't intercepted either.  Here is a picture:

Have a great start to your week.  Let  us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Published Monday, November 02, 2009 6:33 AM by glezak

Comments

 

JOCOWX145 said:

What are the chances, in your opinion Gary, that the jet stream will go this far north in future "cycles"?  If it does, snow dreamers will be dissappointed-this would be a real "snow-eater" setup.

---------------

I am not sure yet, but in Kansas City it has to snow first before a real "snow-eater" setup affects snow melt.

Gary

November 2, 2009 8:59 AM
 

Tim in West Shawnee said:

Gary,

Maybe you need to do some more upper body workouts in order to strengthen that shoulder so you can get the ball to Lance?  Shoulder Presses, Y-Presses, etc.  Maybe upping your weight a little bit would help?

Just kidding!

Tim

---------

Tim,

Thanks so much!  I actually threw it too hard and it hit a television above Lance.

Gary

November 2, 2009 9:51 AM
 

RDub said:

All right, I am loving this stretch of quiet warm weather. It's about time!

--------------

I agree.  It will be cold again soon, so let's enjoy this first half of November warmth.

Gary

November 2, 2009 10:01 AM
 

RDub said:

Standing up would probably make the throw more accurate, if they'd let you do that.
November 2, 2009 10:36 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Well, Elizabeth's expression says it all!  

I was just thinking about the chances of that big snowstorm hitting us on November 3rd...remember some of you were forecasting that a few weeks ago?  Whatcha think now?  :-/
November 2, 2009 11:00 AM
 

WINTERSTINKS said:

Its setting up to be a good week in kc weathewrwise .  This pattern we're in now suits me just fine . this pattern will repeat in 60 days according ot the lrc which well mean we well have warm end of dec beginning of jan pattern .. The coldest part of the year , sorry snow and cold lovers its to bad its setting up as a nice warm  winter     hooray .

--------------

We don't know the cycle length yet. Last year was closer to 60 days. This year could be anything from 35 to 75 days?

Gary

November 2, 2009 11:25 AM
 

hippygoth said:

So what are the chances of November being a below average month temp wise as was the case with October.

I'm all for these warm spells, especially if we get a really cold and nasty Winter, a warm week (say 40s/50s) in Jan would be nice to break it up a little, but... Winter is still Winter and it's meant to be cold and snowy (not too much snow though please.... :D )

H.
November 2, 2009 12:02 PM
 

RDub said:

Interesting that as cold as October was, much of the KC area never got a true killing freeze...and nothing on the horizon for one either.
November 2, 2009 12:13 PM
 

oldpat said:

Kearney recorder 5.45" rain for the month.  I for one am going to enjoy the weather this week-it looks perfect, sunshine all week long, and it is warm too!  Perfect winter weather.
November 2, 2009 12:58 PM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Hey, which one of you ordered up the annoyance rain that's headed here?
November 2, 2009 1:12 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Rdub - interesting point.  The main feature of the cooler October was more of an effect of much lower than average high temps.  The low temps were not as far off.  As we both remember the cloudiness discussion, having those clouds largely kept the low temps in check stemming off a hard freeze for many.

Looking at the 8-14 on the CPC site, it has KC in below normal precip and above normal temps.  Puzzling.  There are some TC trends that seem contrary to this...guess we will wait and see.
November 2, 2009 2:28 PM
 

farmgirl said:

What's up with the rain moving in? Thought it was suppose to be DRY until tues/wed that had a slight chance of the wet stuff? Guess the tulips are gonna have to wait in the bag a bit longer.
November 2, 2009 2:35 PM
 

JOCOWX145 said:

Can't imagine this will amount to anything more than a few sprinkles around the metro.  Should be dry for at least the next 7 to 10 days.  This coming weekend will be a welcome sight.

The "fantasy" storm that was on the GFS a few weeks ago sure didn't turn out to be much.

If this current flow is a repeatable part of the LRC, then I wouldn't get your hopes up about winter.  Even if there is a 3-4 week unsettled, stormy period, this 2+ week stretch of retreated jet stream will melt whatever was dumped.
November 2, 2009 3:11 PM
 

DPannell said:

The only freakin' state in the entire nation getting rain??? Kansas of course!!! Have I ever mentioned how much I hate rain?????
grrrrrr!
November 2, 2009 3:12 PM
 

RDub said:

There's a lot less to that rain than meets the eye...mostly virga. Concordia is the only station in KS actually reporting rain right now.
November 2, 2009 3:19 PM
 

juba said:

I'm with hippygoth, I do want a cold and snowy winter. But a few warm days every now and then would really be a nice break from it, chance is always good, and there is no shortage here! Have a good day.

Skylar
November 2, 2009 3:30 PM
 

RDub said:

Scott, I think you were looking at Sunday's 8-14 day. The weekend forecasts are automated so they're not so reliable. Current (issued Nov 2) forecast is Above/Above for 6-10 days and Normal/Above for 8-14.
November 2, 2009 3:31 PM
 

08streetglide said:

Gary,

How is it everybody keeps missing the "little showers" we keep getting lately especially in the afternoons? I realize a little sprinkle is no biggie in a 4 wheeled vehicle but on the bike at 70 mph, cool or cold rain is no joy.

----------------

It is a sign of what kind of weather pattern we are in. This disturbance was showing up but I thought it would be all virga and precipitation that dries up before reaching the ground. Most spots had no measurable rain. So, forecasting just sprinkles is difficult but it could have been done.

Gary

November 2, 2009 3:53 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Could the coldest October on record be followed by the warmest November on record? I wouldn't like it, but I know there are many that would. I'm all for the first snow, that is always the best one of the winter!
November 2, 2009 4:13 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

" Even if there is a 3-4 week unsettled, stormy period, this 2+ week stretch of retreated jet stream will melt whatever was dumped."

Sounds like a typical KC winter...lol

Rdub - maybe I am cached...I look at the site and see the Nov 2nd update tag, but looking closer at the images, yes..they are from yesterday.

Regardless, while I can understand how they are getting their forecasts and their reasoning, but I think too much weighting is going to the GFS.  Not real solid on the Canadian most of the time beyond 84 hrs.

It seems the CPC has completely given up on the Euro lately.  Based on the TC trends I actually favor the Euro lately.  With as much amplitude as we have seen lately, I have a hard time fully accepting a pure zonal picture.

The CMC does not budge the Aleutian low at all and favors a SW ridge.  This would look much like the longwave pattern of last LRC favoring a east coast Hudson trough.  Not sure about that now.  While possible for short periods, it seems to extend it too long for my liking.

The GFS has shown too much variability run to run in the last week for me to buy into.  While at times, I think what it has is right, it still is biased lately underamplfying the troughs entering the Rockies.

The Euro favors a ridge further west which seems right and drops vorticity down into the SW at ~240.  This seems more consistent with what we have seen lately.

Guess we will wait and see, but seemed the CPC [who is normally quite conservative] went for the gusto especially on the precip forecast - even in light of the known difficulties with all models this time of year.
November 2, 2009 4:44 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Looks like next week could be rather unsettled!
November 2, 2009 10:39 PM
 

jtizz said:

^^if next week storm was to track 200 to 300 miles farther south it might be interesting around here
November 2, 2009 10:52 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I spy something...
November 2, 2009 11:17 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Ahhh, you gotta love  this time of year... one week its cold and stormy, and everybody is all excited/frightened about the awesome LRC we have for the winter. One week it is milder with zonal flow... everybody is excited/depressed about the warm and mild LRC we are going to have for the winter.  One thing that I have learned is it is good to be patient, the LRC is not as straightforward as a lot of people might think it is, I mean if it were THAT straightforward then we would have had great winter forecasts for years, it would be too obvious.  Take this week for example, the next time this part of the pattern comes around, the surface weather will likely much different than it is now, it will PROBABLY be dry if it sets up like this, but the jet will be further south, the cold air in Canada/ the States will be stronger, ect.  In a nutshell, remember Nov. of 07'?  If you went by the surface weather of that month alone( almost the whole month not just a week) you would think we were in for a dry northwest flow winter here in St. Joe... then winter came and we got 30 to 50 inches of snow and a massive ice storm, btw the opposite can be true to.
November 3, 2009 2:50 AM
 

momof3 said:

What a cute pic of you and skyler.  Cute, cute!  I think you should try out for the chiefs!  You seem like you would be better than most of our team.
November 3, 2009 7:12 AM
Anonymous comments are disabled

This Blog

Post Calendar

<November 2009>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
25262728293031
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293012345

Syndication
Inergize Digital Media This site powered by Inergize Digital Media. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station.