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I am kind of ashamed I don't remember a whole lot about the winter of 92-93( I was 9 then) but I think it was because the spring and summer of 93' were so memorable and I remember the Ice storm in 94' like it was last week, I do remember it snowing on Halloween in the early 90's it could have been 92' but I'm not sure.

I believe this was also the summer that flooded so badly and had so many spring severe weather outbreaks. I lived in Topeka and remember the winter/summer well. Just can't remember the year!

Summer 93, the river in Lawrence flooded into lots of the buisness on its edge and still never closed until the water left them. I hope Gary is hinting at something, but I can't tell. Have a good day!

Skylar

I remember the big February snowstorm of 93.  I got stranded at my friend's house that day, and had to stay overnight there. My little Toyota could not make it in the foot of snow.

hey gary and team i think the lrc is very good at looking ahead at the cycles and how they set up.cant wait for your winter weather forecast. also if anybody interested go to the nws site they have a eleven minute web briefing on el nino  and what it will do to the winter forecast.have a great day!!!!!!!!!

Gary-
Going back even further, is there a pattern cycle that coincides with the blizzard of 77/78?  I grew up in Westcentral Ohio and remember this all too well.  My county was shut down for over a week because the blizzard left drifts 15' high and the cold temps wouldn't allow melting to occur.  We has snow blowers brought in from Wright Patterson AFB to assist along with farmers all over using their machines to help dig out.  It was a real mess!  
If there is a pattern though, there would have been a major event cycle around 85/86 but I don't recall one.  
There has been a lot of talk about a very cold winter this year and made me think back some.  With your reflections of 92/93 it really put my mind into motion.

Thought I would ask and maybe start some more conversation.
Have a great Thursday!
Jeff

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Jeff,

I will look into that 1977-78 winter sometime soon, and 85-86 too.  Most of the talk, because of El Nino, is for a warmer winter across the northern US.  Our winter forecast is just 11 days away.

Gary

So is this a hint for thing to come , like '92 '93 or you just teasing us.

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I wish!  But, not sure where the weather roulette ball has landed yet?

Gary

Posting this again cause i liked it.

Decent web-briefing talking about El Nino and the area on the Weather service website.  Seems like a good explaination of what climate maps really mean.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/


Billy

Great maps and explanation this morning. I remember that winter and the following flood very well. It is very obvious the LRC exist and the more Gary and others blog about it, the more it will become easier to explain and share with others. I have tried many times with folks, and the blog today will help greatly.

Gary has been known to throw some teasers but in this case its hard to tell he may just be using it for lrc verifacation.  

The only thing better than sunshine and the 80s in November would be sunshine and the 90s in November :).
deb in paola

While this is very interesting, I would like to see the breadth and depth explained a little bit better.  Are you saying that there is a major event that repeats every "xx" days?  What about the days in between?  Are there other major events / minor events?  Where are these?  I see where you believe a major feature is repeating.  Why aren't the features around it in the same places?  There are maps with no high in Bermuda, there are maps with no low in Nova Scotia.  There's maps with a low in Saskatchewan and then the next one has a high in the same place.  There are maps that show a strong low sitting right in the middle of the US and then there's maps not even showing a trough.  I find this very random.

To attribute the training of thunderstorms in the summer of 93 (this was not an isolated event-if it was, it should have rained/snowed for days every "xx" days in the cycle) is a BIG reach, IMO.  

What about the 91-92 season?  Was the Halloween blizzard an anomaly?  Why didn't MSP get dumped on (or somewhere nearby) every "xx" days that winter?

I do appreciate the attempt at showing "proof", but I see this more as randomness than anything else.  Heck, Gary, the maps don't even match!  And I'm nothing remotely close to a meteorologist!

Hopefully these points are deemed "valid" by the weather team.  Hopefully, for others, I have, "put in the same effort if you really want to be taken seriously".

But, maybe this is just, "a less than compelling argument or otherwise incorrect assertions...please bring some substance".

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Good points!  And, as I discussed in the entry today, these maps are just a snapshot in time from each cycle.  There are 47 to 50 other days, other aspects of the cycle, other storm system, other ridges that are also cycling through the pattern.  I glanced at 1991-1992 and I will have to give it some more time, but that was one huge southern branch wave ejecting out to create that major snowstorm.  Looking ahead to December I saw a similar pattern but the southern branch wave ended up out of phase the next time through.  I will look deeper into that year as it may show some interesting revelations?

It all may seem random, chaos, but I am just saying there is more organization to that chaos. So, let's just keep our minds open.

Gary

JOCOWX145,

I think you're looking for the wrong thing here.  No, the exact same events don't line up every time.  He calls his theory a 'pattern' because similar things repeat over and over again.  Reread the comment by "supercell", it really does explain what Gary's theory is exceptionally well.

In a nutshell, the same events are not experienced on the surface every "xx" days but the same longwave patterns appear every "xx" days.  The surface result is affected by additional factors.  Your points address surface conditions, not long-wave atmospheric trends (which is what his theory is all about).

If the long waves repeat, but the surface conditions are affected by multiple other non-repeating factors, such that "the next time through the cycle, the surface results may be very different," how is this useful to predict the weather here at the surface where we all live?

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Bizarro,

The surface results will be different, and sometimes very different. If you are near one of the "long term" longwave troughs like we were in the 1992-1993 season, then you are more likely to see somewhat similar conditions each time through. But, when it comes to major winter storms, just a bit farther north or south is often a huge difference in whether we get the foot of snow or just 3 inches of snow.  There has to be some significance in knowing what it will likely look like at 500 mb, and then it is up to the forecaster to make the call on what it will mean at the surface.  Predicting a storm 5 days out can be just as difficult as one 50 days out. 

Gary

Go away El Nino we dont need warmer air in the winter we have a hard enough time getting cold air in place for it to snow. With the El Nino factor I bet garys winter forcast is for below or maybe normal snowfall this winter.

I just want one REALLY good snow storm this year and I will be happy...

Shawn at KU: The caption on each of those maps says "500mb", so they're not surface maps.  If the LRC is based on long-term longwaves, then why did Gary present all these maps today, without any reference to "long-term longwaves".  Either way, what was presented today doesn't prove any "pattern" to me.  Why aren't the "long-waves" pointed out in each of those maps?  Seems pretty fishy.

I pointeed out specific 500mb height features on those maps.  If the LRC actually "repeats", those 500mb features should as well - and not 1000s of miles from where they were the first "cycle".

If what you say is true, why in the world would the theory be presented in the fashion it was today - with "repeatable" maps attempting to explain it?  You can't have it both ways - sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't - that's ridiculous!  If they were truly surface maps, I would bow to your point, but they aren't - they are 500mb maps.

If a blogger (supercell) is able to better explain Gary's theory after 20+ years of Gary claiming an "LRC" exists, then something is extremely wrong.

"Most of the talk, because of El Nino, is for a warmer winter across the northern US."


I would have to agree so far so good.  The coldest low we have had in Prairie Village is 32.5 a couple of Saturday's ago.  Even with a couple of light frost we still have Cannas, Begonias  and Roses blooming very nice for November 5th.  This should continue for several more days.

Bizarro -

I think climatology plays a role in addition to what Gary replied.  Even knowing the pattern and long term longwave locations,  there are several features that can and do make a difference.

For example - a storm passes 20 miles north of the metro in October may produce rain, while in early December as the jet intensifies, it drops 20 miles and the low passes directly over head. In late January as it returns and the jet is at its peak, it could be another 20 miles further south passing just south of the metro.

The surface may reflect this:

October - warm air advection occurs ahead of the surface low and we get rain bands ahead of the surface low.

December - less moisture available, we receive cloudy skies, clearing as surface low passes overhead with dry air aloft yielding a dryslot.

February - surface low passes to the south, cold air rushes in, lift in deformation zone from wrap around moisture yields snow bands passing through KC.

This example is illustrative how just a 60 mile shift of a synoptic pattern can and does yield different results at the surface.  It is up to the experience/skill of a meteorologist to weigh in the different factors such as climate, jet intensity and other factors that may contribute to different surface results stemming from the same pattern.

Just my opinion...

Just a flippin Snowday this year would make me happy. Didn't have one snowday all year last year.

Scott -

I understand your climatology/seasonal factor that you consider... such that as winter progresses, the jet will drop further south, along with its coincident features... and thus knowing it will drop can help you.

What if a feature lifted north instead?  What if a storm that crossed right over KC in the early fall was instead 500 miles north later in December or January...say in North Dakota or Minnesota...instead of over KC.  That would be doing the inverse of what you argued...but would you still find it a "match"?

I guess the question comes down to this:  If the theory holds as you all contend, does it always match ... can you always excuse/explain away every single discrepancy, such that your inherent deference is always to a cycle...and so whenever someone presents any two maps (or series of maps), you can adjust them in a manner that explains how they match, even if such a match is not apparent on its face?

Is there ever a comprehensible situation in which, for instance, a huge storm passes by, but then the next time through, there is no storm at all...and the pattern looks essentially the inverse of what it was "supposed" to be?  

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Bizarro,

When a location is near a "long term" longwave trough then there is a much higher likelyhood of the storms coming close to the same location each time through the cycle.  The farther away you are from one of these very important features, the "long term" longwaves, the more likely a scenaria where the inverse could happen.  Does this make sense? So, a storm that is not maturing could be much farther north or south each time through the cycle, as opposed to the ones that reach peak strength like I showed in today's example. In recent years Kansas City has not been near a "long term" longwave.

Gary

That's a great point, Bizarro.  In the maps that were posted today, there is very little difference in latitude of the main feature - the low pressure in the middle of the country (which is what is referenced as the "storm" on today's blog) throughout the progression of the maps.

If the whole "synoptic" piece of the argument were true, the system should be further south each time until the jet starts lifting north again (late Feb/early March) and then continuing north through the summer.  I see it further north in the June and July maps that were posted, but in esentially the same latitude in the others.

Gary:

I saw you and Jeff at P.F. Changs last night.  I was at the table next to you with the beard and green shirt.  It was nice of you to say hi to me.  You aren't the typical celebrity, which is nice.  My mom likes your weekend forecast.

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I wanted to talk to you so bad, because I could tell you wanted to say hi.  Maybe we will bump into each other again sometime.

Gary

Gary,

Your statement makes sense according to your theory, but I'm afraid it doesn't respond to the question I asked.

What if a feature appears simply virtually absent or extremely far away the next time around...do you say that it is still there, or is there a possible instance that there appears to be no match at all on the second or third time around?  

I'm curious about Scott's view as well...my question was more fully stated above.

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Jerry,

I usually can find the features you are talking about.  But, yes, there are probably times where a feature in one cycle won't be there in another one on one of the snapshots in time, one day.  But, as the cycle continues the patterns will eventually line up.

Scott says he doesn't like the map comparisons. I absolutely love them. Don't you see the comparison in my example today?  And, yes, you can find a trough in any year and try to line it up and say "there it is", but then it wouldn't be there so regularly, if that makes sense.  And, the big features will repeat close to 100% of the time.

Gary

If October was winter the NWS forecast would be the complete opposite of what happened. :)

Bizarro - I fear I am not going to be much help on the map perspective of discussing the LRC.  I never favored it as a critic and don't really like it much still.  You will note I rarely use map analysis in my discussions.

Gary is better at it as he is more skilled at picking out certain features and it works better in this medium.

I am a data person preferring numbers.  It is a bit more intuitive for me I suppose.  I like taking 500mb data series from different locations close and far from the longwaves and charting them that way.  I can also do correlation tests and other statistical analysis this way.  In looking at my blogs, that is my typical approach as it is more uniform to discuss a r-squared value than two sets of eyes trying to interpret similarities/differences in maps.

To be as specific as I can regarding your question regarding how waves move on the maps, while the jetstream intensifies in Winter and does have a mean latitude adjustment, it is just the mean.  There will be fluxes in the jet that will have it dig even deeper or retreat at times even in the same pattern.  Why this happens, I don't know.  There are variables even outside of the LRC that can affect it.

Gary has been pretty straight forward that conditions such as the ENSO can affect the LRC.  Certainly other features including torque, friction and other land sea relationships can have an influence.

There are many questions to be resolved.  It needs more work.  I do think it does have some merit in forecasting even if some of the pieces we have yet to understand.  Sometimes recognition is good enough if even you don't know the reason why it happens.

OK - so upon a couple more readings...maybe I understand a bit more what you're saying:

Your theory is a lot more accurate/reliable if you are near a long-term, long-wave trough, but if you're somewhere else - near a ridge, in between features, or the flow is not as pronounced, then the theory is less useful for forecasting?

If so, what makes the TROUGHS more reliably-placed then the other features?  What sets troughs apart from domes of high pressure, etc... as elements that repeat in the same place?

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I am not saying that if you are far away from a "long term" longwave trough or ridge that it means the forecast will be any more or less accurate. It really shouldn't matter. 

Gary

Both ridges and troughs are critical and both find long term longwaves

I think this winter is going to be a bust for us snow lovers. Perhaps the coldest October on record followed by the warmest November on record?

So Scott,

In the last several years of your cycle following, has there ever been a single circumstance where the cycle apparently came back, yet it just didn't seem to match at all to you...where you just thought "wow - this is so different than the last time through and there seems to be no way to stretch the explanation of the current situation to make it analagous to the previous time through the cycle..." or have you ALWAYS been able to take a situation and explain/excuse it away as somehow fitting?

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Bizarro,

There are many times where this happens, especially when you compare May to January.  It still can be shown to be the same cycling pattern.  So, yes, there have been times of being a bit baffled, and at the same time there are times we bust a snow forecast the next day which is even more frustrating.

Gary

There have been times where things didn't look right, certainly.  But in careful observations of not just one storm or one day, but look at the whole...things do tend to come back into focus.

I have never seen a complete cycle that looked wrong.  As I learn more about the atmosphere, it happens less as I realize there are other methods/factors to consider that are not just a quick glimpse of the map that will either confirm it is indeed within the pattern or point to possibilities why something is not as I expected.

The point you bring up are great learning opportunities.  Last year there was a few days like you describe.  It pushed me to research, to analyze, and to stretch my learning to explain what I was observing.  Consequently, I did find the reason and it was not as readily available as looking at a map or trying to explain it away.  

I don't try to explain things away if I am not sure.  I will be the first to say I don't know and it drives me to research.  I am finding many things even as recent as this week I didn't know prior about the LRC and the atmosphere that continues to help but some structure to this evolving framework.

Every bit of uncertainty is a learning opportunity.

When are we going back into the freezer? I'm tired of sitting in the roaster. XD

Gary's response to BizarroJerry:

"I usually can find the features you are talking about.  But, yes, there are probably times where a feature in one cycle won't be there in another one on one of the snapshots in time, one day.  But, as the cycle continues the patterns will eventually line up."

This was one of my points with the Human Wave at a sports events analogy!  As the wave moves across the stadium, sometimes it loses its energy and only a few people pop up here and there to keep the wave going.  However, the characteristics of the wave are still in place and we easily recognize the pattern as a wave.  When the wave comes back around and goes through the same section with the same people, it could be stronger, have different people stand up or be the same based on the energy of the fans at the time.  Anyone who has watched a wave go around a stadium has recognized this.  Even with limited characteristics in place, we still recognize the pattern as a wave.  

The LRC works the same in my mind.  As the LRC goes through its cycle or "wave" it will have different results each time around due to the dynamics in place at that specific point in time of the pattern.  However, it holds enough characteristics in place to allow forecasters to recognize it as a pattern.  By doing simple calculations, a forecaster will be able to accurately provide, with a very small margin of error, when the wave will come around again.  It may not tell us the exact strength, but at least it will tell us when to be ready to stand up.

Just how it makes sense in my mind…

Another thing to think about, the atmosphere is a fluid continuously moving and shifting around, not every wave, is going to be a perfect replica of a wave in  a previous cycle, in fact it is amazing that the LRC works as well as it does.  energy going through the jet stream can be a little off from cycle to cycle, and while to the jet stream it may be a minor difference from the last time the jet was in the same position, the affects could come out to be very different to us at the surface other and just the track of a low. Ex, lets say that there is a 40 day pattern and at about day 20 a large trough starts to form in the pattern and digs into the plains and becomes a major trough that bottoms out in the plains, say the axis ends up north to south over central Ks. Now lets say that the last time it happened, a shortwave piece of energy swung through the trough near its peak dip and produced a massive storm that brought snow From North east TX through Ohio, well this time everything will likely play out nearly the same but it would be possible for the shortwave to come "a bit early" compared to where the jet stream is in carving out the trough and the storm could pass to our northwest less organized as the trough is forming and the big storm to our east does not really materialize at all and they get more a a frontal system instead. Well maybe this does not make sense and I could be wrong in my thinking but it seems thinks like this do happen.

a comment not related to your post above.  i was just watching your newscast, and when you showed the live video feed from P&L, the red dot showing the camera location on the map was somewhere in north kansas city.  i've noticed this before.  why has this been incorrect for so long?

Justin

Thank you for the Indian summer, my family was starting to get sad since we only had warmth no longer than a day. Its nice to see the warm and sun after cool and wet, hopefully it repeats like this all the time. Everybody would get what they wanted. Have a good day!

Skylar

I might be able to say my little secret tomorrow. :)

I might be able to say my little secret tomorrow. :)