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Good Saturday bloggers! The 70s are here! Both days this weekend should see highs in the mid to upper 70s in many backyards. Today's forecast high of 77 will be very close to the record high for November 7 of 78 set back in 1934. In order to get very warm this time of year you need sunshine, dry air, southerly winds, and often times compressional warming. As air descends from the Rockies into the Plains the air warms, this warming can lead to unseasonably warm temperatures. The downsloping winds and compressional warming will aid in our warm-up today and on Sunday.
Often times when highs near record levels the models have a very difficult time recognizing just how warm it will be. Below is one model that I think is struggling a bit with the temperatures this afternoon. This is the RUC temperature forecast around 4 p.m. today. I think it will be in the mid to maybe upper 70s at this time.
If you are wondering if 3 straight days of highs in the 70s are unheard of in November, the answer is no. If you look back just one year to November 2008, that month started with 5 straight days with highs in the 70s!
Shifting gears to the tropics, the Atlantic Hurricane season 'officially' runs from June-November and there is a late season Tropical Storm to discuss. Tropical Storm Ida is located in the Carribean and currently has maximum sustained winds of 45mph. The storm is forecast to near the Yucatan late this weekend and enter the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. If this were August I think there would be major concern, but with water temperatures cooler and other dynamics lacking the storm should become extratropical as it meanders in the Gulf.
That's it for today, thank you for stopping by the Action Weather Blog. And don't forget, the winter forecast is just over one week away!
Jeremy