Watch Monday Night at 10 PM For Our Winter Forecast in HD! We will also be putting some more information online soon!
Good morning NBC Action Weather Bloggers,
While the remnants of Hurricane Ida blast the mid-Atlantic states today with 10 inches of rain, or possibly more, near the Virginia coastline we have what could be a wet storm heading our way. There is even a chance that we could see our first snowflakes on the backside of this storm that hasn't even formed yet. The energy that will begin developing and organizing into a storm is still well offshore in the Pacific Ocean. You can see it below on this first forecast map valid at 6 PM this evening:
The eastern United States storm, now a cut-off low, will be centered just off the Virginia coast at 6 PM tonight. This is the storm that will produce the excessive rain and winds near the coast of over 55 mph. It is cut-off from the main jet stream and is moving very slowly.
Take a look, below, at the next storm forming by Saturday night near the Utah/Arizona border:
There is a lot to pay close attention to in the next two weeks as the weather pattern is about to get a jolt of energy. Split flow is going to become more enhanced near the west coast and the southern branch is often under forecast during the earliest stages of any developing split flow. Our weather is about to become much more exciting than it has been so far this month. You can see the split flow forming off the Pacific northwest coast. There is a very high probability that this next storm is just the beginning of an energetic and stormy second half of November. Earlier this week I showed how we have had our first snowflakes before Thanksgiving the last five years in a row. The last time we didn't have our first snowflakes before Thanksgiving was 2001. As this pattern becomes energized I am expecting this year to make it 8 years in a row with those first snowflakes before the Plaza Lights go on! Will we have our first inch to end the snowflake contest? The deadline to enter the snowflake contest is Friday. Go to www.NBCActionNews.com/snowflake to enter.
There are many uncertainties concerning this next potentially very wet storm heading our way. The rainfall and snowfall forecasts will be trending one way or another in the next few days, but here is what the 06z (midnight) run of the GFS showed:
This rainfall forecast will move around west and east, a bit north or south, in the coming days. But, it looks like a certainty that this is going to be a very wet storm for November. For us to see our first snowflakes here in Kansas City we will need the upper low to track near or south of Kansas City. This still may happen by Monday night or Tuesday and we will be working on some very special weather graphics on NBC Action News in HD the next few days to help describe and clearly show to you what we are thinking. One thing we pride ourselve on doing is creating these weather graphics to enhance your experience in watching our weathercasts. It is a goal I have every day. So, watch closely as this storm approaches.
Get ready for increasing south winds today. The nice weather has about two more days to go, and then the changes begin. We may regularly return to our two blogs a day as conditions warrant so check back in later on as we analyze the new data.
Gary
