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Chance of Snow & More...November 16th

Good morning bloggers,

Our winter forecast will be on tonight at 10 PM!  And, our first snowflakes of the season are very possible today!  Winter weather advisories are in affect north of Kansas City today with a Winter Storm Warning farther west.  A vigorous storm system has developed over southern Kansas and this is a tricky forecast with the rain/snow line still very difficult to figure out.  I drew in a white line on the map below showing the most likely spot to have accumulation of snow. This could easily shift west or east a bit depending on many factors:

A very strong upper level storm has developed into a cut-off low and it is going to move very slowly affecting us for days!  There will be more than just this one chance of wintery weather today as disturbances rotate around the main upper low that will be tracking into Missouri and then moving slowly toward the Great Lakes states.

I am still adding thoughts and will finish this blog during the 8 AM hour.....

Gary

 

Published Monday, November 16, 2009 4:42 AM by glezak

Comments

 

lorid1211 said:

Bring on the snow!!! I know it won't be enough to end the snowflake contest (in a way, I hope it does, even though I picked 12/11), but I soooooo ready to see snowflakes!! Have a great day!
November 16, 2009 5:41 AM
 

JennIrat said:

SNOW, SNOW, SNOW!!!!!  I live in Easton, MO so guess I have the possibility of seeing some of the white stuff since we are in a snow advisory today.....


Can't wait to see the winter forecast.  Guess I will have to check  in the morning on what  was said tonight, probably be in bed by 10....have to get up eary here..

Jennifer
November 16, 2009 5:54 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Tried sending this at 6:25 but the internet was acting up.  Brett and Gary, getting interesting here in McLouth, KS at this hour.  A mix of rain, sleet and flurries here.  The air temp is 37.6 and our ground temp is down to 40.2  NWS has a point forecast for us of 4.5" of snow by Tuesday morning.
November 16, 2009 6:30 AM
 

SmithvilleWest said:

Temp is 38 here near Smithville.  About 15 minutes ago we had a heavy downpour that included a burst of sleet/ice pellets.  Should be an interesting weather day. ****

Keep the reports coming, today we will really need you guys to be our eyes on the sky. ****Brett

November 16, 2009 6:40 AM
 

WinterTracker said:

Crap! I am on the wrong side of the city!
November 16, 2009 6:48 AM
 

snoman said:

Light drizzel with flurries mixed in temp 37 degrees at iatan power plant west of weston mo
November 16, 2009 6:54 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Looks to me like I am already seeing flakes from the live report on I29 and Barry..early change over?  *** It looked that way to me too but Sloan said it isn't snowing yet.  Brett
November 16, 2009 6:56 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Lorid, I picked 12/11 too, my birthday.  I think I picked 6pm...what time did you pick, and is that your birthday?

Tina
November 16, 2009 7:00 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

Well, I could do without snow this week, because my DH is returning from Asia tomorrow night, and even if he doesn't have a rough drive home from KCI, he'll be moaning about the change in weather all week!  When he left ten days ago, it was gorgeous outside! I don't want to be stuckindoors with a complaining husband!

But since so many of you want to see snow, I hope you get your wish. Then come springtime, when I do NOT want to see tornadoes, maybe you can back meup -- deal?
November 16, 2009 7:03 AM
 

Jenn6428 said:

Is there any possibility we could see some accumulation here in Gladstone? **** Yes, some minor accumulations are possible later today and tonight.  Brett
November 16, 2009 7:04 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Doing the "snow dance" in my office before the kids get to school for their Band lessons.  We have a Snowflake Contest in our building that I manage but  I am like Lorid1211 and don't think it will end today.

Sure did rain hard on the way to school.  If only it was all snow!
November 16, 2009 7:11 AM
 

dbase94 said:

Dang it.  I chosed this past Friday the 13th for the snowflake contest.  Looks like I might have missed it by a few days.
November 16, 2009 7:19 AM
 

Givemeabreak said:

Good morning. Fairly new here and still trying to figure out where everyone is in relation to Overland Park. Can someone tell me where McLouth is in relation to OP?

Thanks!
November 16, 2009 7:21 AM
 

davidmcg said:

 
Givemeabreak McLouth KS is 17 miles north of Lawrence or 43 miles NW of Overland Park
November 16, 2009 7:26 AM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

just need it to go a tad south to pick up an inch in olathe
November 16, 2009 7:27 AM
 

MikeL said:

It started snowing at my house in SW Topeka at 6:30 AM and it is still snowing.  The cars and grassy areas have a slight accumulation so far. The temp at my house is 32.5.  I'm headed downtown now.

BTW hello again, this is at least my 3rd winter on the blog and I have been in lurker mode during the summer.  Mike
November 16, 2009 7:35 AM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Is there still a chance that Blue Springs could get an inch or more? Or are we just going to see a flake or two?
November 16, 2009 7:36 AM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Is there still a chance that Blue Springs could get an inch or more? Or are we just going to see a flake or two?
November 16, 2009 7:36 AM
 

Kimberly said:

I hope we manage to get an inch on the plaza today! I picked today for the snowflake contest, as it is  my nephews 18th birthday!
November 16, 2009 7:44 AM
 

Givemeabreak said:

Thanks for the location david. It helps a lot.

Kim
November 16, 2009 7:47 AM
 

ChicagoExPat said:

I finally made it out to the rain gauge a little while ago. We have had .7" in the last 24 hours down in southern Olathe.
November 16, 2009 8:02 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

the radar echoes seem to be increasing in intensity over the last few frames.  with an easterly fetch in the lower levels some drier air may work in-that would help bring the dew point down a little more....37 degree dewpoint at KCI is a little too high for my taste for an accumulating snow.

Man I wish I was there, its supposed to be 72 here today, bleh...
November 16, 2009 8:04 AM
 

luvsnow said:

Oh I am hoping the NOAA site is wrong. They have it so closeby, but still have OP with all rain and not changing over. Don't care if I see accumulation today, but doing the snow dance to just see the snow fly!  I even had a dream last night about seeing the rain turn to snow, lets hope it was a prophecy instead. :) What are the thoughts about the south side of town seeing any snow??
November 16, 2009 8:06 AM
 

northlandtchr said:

Here at 435 and Barry Road south of the airport we have ice pellets falling and enough to cover the ground for about 5 minutes.
November 16, 2009 8:10 AM
 

Lillyanya said:

I'm super excited to possibly see some snow! :)
November 16, 2009 8:19 AM
 

WinterTracker said:

Here at 135th and Pflumm, we have a london-fog and an eerie mist. The temp and dewpoint are steady at 37 degreees, and I have my fingers crossed to see the years first snowflakes!
November 16, 2009 8:20 AM
 

spotter said:

rain snow mix in st joseph at this time more snow than rain
November 16, 2009 8:20 AM
 

WinterTracker said:

Here at 135th and Pflumm, we have a london-fog and an eerie mist. The temp and dewpoint are steady at 37 degreees, and I have my fingers crossed to see the years first snowflakes!
November 16, 2009 8:20 AM
 

Meegosh85 said:

could someone tell me when new data comes out?

otherwise i am just going to keep updating earl barker's snowfall maps every five minutes and get nothing accomplished today.

thanks
November 16, 2009 8:21 AM
 

snoman said:

have light to moderate snow here in Atchison Ks. temp is 33.8F. BIG flakes for about 15 mins, just enought to start turn the grass whitish. WHOOO HOO   Tony
November 16, 2009 8:22 AM
 

luvsnow said:

I am close to you WinterTracker....my fingers and toes are crossed as well!! Maybe I will take last nights thoughts on the blog and through out some ice cubes to bring down the temp here. I have plenty in my freezer. ha! ha!
November 16, 2009 8:24 AM
 

DLight said:

Sleeting @ 48th street and 435
November 16, 2009 8:25 AM
 

snoman said:

OK now the street is starting to turn white!!!!

------------

Thanks, please keep us updated!

Gary

November 16, 2009 8:27 AM
 

homemom said:

Smithville has gone from sleet to a beautiful, large, wet snowflakes now....
I think it needs to get a little colder to get this stuff to stick
November 16, 2009 8:28 AM
 

westonhere said:

Big Snowflakes coming down here in Weston,Mo!! Coming down pretty heavy too!! Ground is turning white already!!!!




November 16, 2009 8:30 AM
 

stjoeattorney said:

Sleet and light rain at St. Joseph seven o'clock hour.  Eight o'clock we had turned to a snow rain and sleet mix.  Temperature 34.4°, now 8:30 things have turned over to a predominantly light snow, I look on the radar and see a bright band of yellow and orange to our South East, I expect that to be a heavy band of sleet or snow when it arrives in the next 15 minutes to half an hour.
November 16, 2009 8:34 AM
 

lorid1211 said:

Chicago, yes, 12/11 is my birthday too. I picked the early afternoon for the first inch. Have a great day!!
November 16, 2009 8:36 AM
 

MTongate said:

Lt snow here in Platte city
November 16, 2009 8:37 AM
 

furkidmom said:

Snow here in Weston...even my new puppy is just standing with her head out of the door...like "huh, can I eat it???".  
November 16, 2009 8:40 AM
 

kellyann said:

It is sleeting heavy at 435 and Leavenworth Rd by the Legends where I live.
November 16, 2009 8:42 AM
 

spotter said:

all snow st joseph sticking to grass and roofs looks great
November 16, 2009 8:53 AM
 

wycostormspotter said:

Its sleeting heavy at 64th st and leavenworth rd in kansas city Ks.Snow dance
November 16, 2009 9:02 AM
 

Mark M said:

Sleeting a decent amount near I-435 and Donahoo Road in Piper, KS
November 16, 2009 9:03 AM
 

JDG1979 said:

Here southeast Topeka started to sleet snow/rain mix about 6am.  As of right now all snow.  Cars, house roofs, grassy surfaces are becoming covered with the white stuff
November 16, 2009 9:04 AM
 

Tornado lover said:

ok i went to kctv5's radar loop and it showed rain but when i went to http://www.kctv5.com/wxmap/4290868/detail.html this web site it show that the rain had turned to a mix and im in lee's summit and it just driizling can anyone tell me whats going on.. plz thanks anthony
November 16, 2009 9:04 AM
 

stjoeattorney said:

St. Joseph 9:00 AM heavy snow cars and grass are turning white, streets slushy, sidewalks and streets of North facing buildings are also turning white and the temperature has to 33.8°.  The question is how long can the snow sustain itself, it will definitely put cold into the ground so that when there is another round later on in the day we will have more problems probably would travel.
November 16, 2009 9:05 AM
 

furkidmom said:

Big fat fluffy flakes here in Weston.  I guess it will stop soon. Or it will get deep soon.  I vote for the later.  Lynn
November 16, 2009 9:06 AM
 

ShawneeMike said:

...and the sleet/ice pellets hath arrived in western Shawnee at Monticello & Shawnee Mission Parkway.

Be careful out there everyone!
November 16, 2009 9:06 AM
 

snoman said:

Well if the snowflake contest would have been at my house it would be over. We have over an inch on the driveway and coming down hard with big flakes.
November 16, 2009 9:07 AM
 

LibertyJeff said:

In Liberty, had enough sleet to put a thin layer down but back to all rain again!  Acording to radar the rain/snow line is about 20 miles or so north of me.  Currently sitting at 36 degrees.
November 16, 2009 9:13 AM
 

Tornado lover said:

its snowing in lee's summit
November 16, 2009 9:13 AM
 

KeithInKC said:

Mix of big snowflakes, ice pellets, and rain up north around Hwy 152 and I-29.
November 16, 2009 9:14 AM
 

CtinaDitty04 said:

Up at UMKC we have very heavy sleet.
November 16, 2009 9:15 AM
 

LibertyJeff said:

Also too, have had just over 1" of rain since this event began yesterday morning.
November 16, 2009 9:17 AM
 

BuildersSnow said:

Already a snow/sleet mix in north Leavenworth as of 9:24am only .45 inches of rain. Come on snow my son's surprise birthday party with snow would be awesome!!!
November 16, 2009 9:23 AM
 

KC_Hams said:

Sleet around Crown Center.
November 16, 2009 9:26 AM
 

Tinkermom said:

Will we see any winter precip in Olathe? **** Hi, yes, there is a band of precip just SW of Olathe that may produce some snow as the day goes on.  Brett
November 16, 2009 9:26 AM
 

Jenn6428 said:

When do the new models come out?
November 16, 2009 9:30 AM
 

BuildersSnow said:

Now moderate snow in north Leavenworth
November 16, 2009 9:32 AM
 

stormhammer76 said:

Light Sleet/Snow mix here on the Plaza.

Pete
November 16, 2009 9:33 AM
 

intellectus said:

I work in Lee's Summit at Chipman Road & 50 Highway and as of 9:35am it is not snowing.  Just a cold light rain.  
November 16, 2009 9:35 AM
 

Fire Dog said:

Just plain old cold rain here in Ex. Springs.
November 16, 2009 9:42 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

@Tornado lover
its snowing in lee's summit

hmmmm not so sure about that...all rain here. drove from SE lee's summit to grandview.no snow just misty/rainy
November 16, 2009 9:42 AM
 

Mark M said:

Snow is starting to mix in with the rain/sleet in Piper, KS
November 16, 2009 9:44 AM
 

bmbiec said:

Nothing at 87th and Holmes - not even rain!  
November 16, 2009 9:50 AM
 

kellyann said:

around 91st and Leavenworth Rd, snow is mixing with rain.
November 16, 2009 9:51 AM
 

Ross said:

new blog
November 16, 2009 9:52 AM
 

Wolverine said:

Good morning Kansas City...

Sounds like the storm we had last week is developing into a possible snow event for you.  

Gary  - Please let me know when you place your winter forecast on line..  Maybe I can get an idea of what to expect out here in Idaho..   Our local stations are 50 - 75 miles from where I live, and they don't do well with the forecast for us....

Thanks
Bill
November 16, 2009 9:55 AM
 

elogan12 said:

Rain with a few snowflakes mixed in here in Parkville!!!
November 16, 2009 10:07 AM
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