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Ohh...am I reading your new line right that you are thinking right now that Olathe/Overland Park might get some accumulation today???  I realize the line is ever changing...but I am grasping for any hope as it has just been misting so far here.

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This line may move west though. Let's see what happens in the next few hours......minutes.

Gary

Good morning Kansas City...

Sounds like the storm we had last week is developing into a possible snow event for you.  

Gary  - Please let me know when you place your winter forecast on line..  Maybe I can get an idea of what to expect out here in Idaho..   Our local stations are 50 - 75 miles from where I live, and they don't do well with the forecast for us....

Thanks
Bill

Since temps are around freezing up at the 850MB, isn't the Heavier Precip helping push the cooler temps down to the surface???

A few rain with a change over to ice pellets at times in Gardner, Kansas.  

Andrew...YES

Is Liberty expected to receive anything significant? I'm getting jealous of my sister over in Lawrence, from the looks of it they're supposed to be getting 5 INCHES? It's not that far away.

Now sleeting near my house very near downtown Lee's Summit.

It would be very helpful if someone could provide half hour readings over the metro at the 850mb.  Who wants to send up balloons?

Not much but a nice dusting on the ground in North Leavenworth with some areas of my parking lot at my coffeehouse looking like a little slush!!

Now snowing 64th and leavenworth rd kansas city ks cars are starting to turn white awesome

At 10:10 PM in St. Joseph to snow has lessened but not stopped.  All grass white and sidewalks and streets are covered temperature is currently 31.8° depending upon where you measured the depth of the snow; in north facing areas there is over 2.5 inches in areas that are exposed is about 1.5.  Looking at the radar it appears that there is additional generation South of I-70 moving north that will get us another round of decent snow about dusk.  

The sligest wobble can mean alot just like a hurricane!

Salt truck jut went by!

Adam - had sleet as well a two miles north of you.

Scott, I will! Just give me the equipment, that would be fun!!

Barely snowing at 91st Leavenworth road. Nothing on the cars, roads, etc.

Ever the pessimist concerning snow in KC, I say it will not snow 1 inch at my house or at the Plaza.  Have had some sleet this morning, but haven't seen any snowflakes yet.

One my porch(back deck) here in St. Joe I have gotten a reading of 1.5 inches... I CAN'T BELIEVE THAT I HAVE BROKEN OUT MY SNOW RULER ALREADY WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  BTW at times we have had MASSIVE FLAKES very awesome!!  A very happy Nick in St. Joe!    

Good Morning, Gary,  we're having a good snowfall in Leavenworth as I write.  About 5 minuites ago I noticed the large snowflakes were gone, and little ones replaced them.  Now as I type the biggies are back.  My barn roof looks like about an inch of snow, but on my little back deck railing the snow that had accumulated there is beginning to melt.  The car is covered.  Who picked today for the snowflake contest?  

I didn't read the blog yet so don't know how much at the station, but I can pretty well figure that you or Brett has the ruler or yardstick ready!!!  Today I will enjoy the snow falling from the inside of my home.

Edna

nothing here in raymore at the moment. hoping for just a little something, not feeling great today so would love to see some snowflakes

Snow flake contest over here in Weston Mo, just measured 1.25 inches on my patio and in my yard!!!

By the looks of the radar, it doesn't really look promising for us in the metro area. But I am still holding out for some good snow.

I would love to see SOME snow in Lee's Summit. Even if it is just an inch. :)

I know this is the last thing you want to discuss right now with the snow situation, but does this storm have similar characteristics from the storm in mid-October?  I haven't gotten the chance to do the analysis on it yet, but I remember a slow-moving, four-corner low pressure system that had a similar track.  That would put it around 30 days.  I'm not saying this as certain, just looking at possibilities.  Wouldn't it be wow if we had two storms like this one as part of the total cycle???!!!

so blue springs is going to get just missed?.... please I hope not!!!

Scott,

What do you think? I think the changeover to all snow may be tough here in L.S.

All sleet now in Gardner, Kansas

I just talked to my friend who lives between Troy and Wathena KS in northeast ks...their schools are getting out at 12:30. They say their roads are covered and really slick!

Sleet at 147th & Pflumm

I will be extremely surprised if we get any snow in south Olathe today. In fact, watching the radar, we've been in the rather clear center of the storm almost all day. It only just started raining again a few minutes ago, and there isn't an awful lot of precip rotating towards us, just clear areas. So unless something else develops, we're just going to have a drizzly and gray day. Sorry if I peed on anyone's campfire, but I'm not wishcasting, just looking at live radar.

Falling nicely in Lawrence!

Yikes, I may have spoken too soon -- rain has turned to snow just west of us in Gardner-Edgerton, and we're getting a pretty good downpour now.

Sleeting heavily in Olathe at 151st and Blackbob!

What a difference a few miles makes.  I live just west of Wamego Kansas and have about a 1/2 on the ground and right at 32 degrees.  Snow plows were out this morning on the commute.  I drove into work in Manhattan about 15 miles and it's still snowing but is about 34degrees and no snow on the ground.  We are in a winter storm warning till 6am tuesday.  Well see if it can drop a few more degres and we can get the 6-8 inches they are predicting.  will keep you all informed with totals from Wamego.  

My thermometer says 30 at my house here in Parkville

OK, spoke too soon!  Now changing from sleet to snow in Olathe!

So far in Atchison Ks we've had just over 3". Very light right now. Tony

Heavy sleet Parkville

Gary,

What do you think about the trend for a little Cold Outbreak around the 26th?

http://tinyurl.com/yk39r97

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I see the potential for sure. But, let's see how the ridge forms over the eastern Pacific.

Gary

New GFS has a cold outbreak around the 26th and the 30th

http://tinyurl.com/yjqea5y

See.  I told everyone that the models would do this!  It may change over for alittle bit but it will just be a tease for us here in the metro.  BTW still rain here in Ex.springs.

Brett,

It is now snowing hard in west Lawrence.

thats been showing up for a while now andrew.  still a little too far out for my taste...although, given that it will be around nearly december by then I wouldnt be surprised-it would be due.

Heavy sleet/rain mix in western Shawnee

Can we block winterstinks? Same thing happens every year in the winter with snow lovers and people watching for road issues. Happens every spring too when there is a threat of severe weather. Personally, I'd rather have snow than tornadoes.

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We don't need to block anyone unless there is bad language, or personal attacks. So, we must all follow these simple rules.  If someone doesn't like winter or snow they are aloud to express their opinion as long as it doesn't attack anyone.

Gary

Nice to see you make an appearance, Winterstinks -- I wondered when you'd chime in!  I think our neighborhood is the only one that hasn't seen a flake, and once again, it doesn't look like we'll see any. We're at Ridgeview and 183rd and the rain is just exiting. At least for awhile. It came REAL close, but no cigar.

Tina

It was sleeting pretty here in Olathe near 135th and Ridgeview around 11:00, but it seems to have stopped, or switched back to rain.

Reafamily, it isn't right to block someone just because they express their love or hate of any type of weather. I'm sure I'm a pain in some peoples' backsides in spring because I hate severe weather and never want people to have to deal with tornadoes, but I'd be real surprised to be blocked for my opinions. Some people love the excitement of severe weather. I sure don't, but to each his-her own.

O.K. Gary this is too much, I mean how much money did the station have to spend for this trailer of your winter forecast? I mean the ULL coming right over the area is one thing, but to then have it stop and sit on us, I hope stimulus money wasn't involved;) LOL.   Well the snow looks like it may be mixing in with some rain again here in St. Joe, but no complaints at all, actually looks like the precip. may stop for a while looking at radar the main band seems to be pushing up north and west of us.

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Nick,

I think the ball landed in the right spot.  I really do. The winter forecast will be posted this evening.  Let me know what you think.  We are airing our winter forecast tonight at 10 PM.  What a day for the winter outlook.

Gary

I dont think we are going to get any snow at all here in Blue Springs... my brother is up from Texas where he is in the army and I just wanted him to see some snow :(

I am loveing this weather and u guys are doing a great job.We just need a couple of inches on the ground here i am very excited.From brent in the dotte.SNOWDANCE TIME lol.

Look what I found on Weather Central:

http://tinyurl.com/yzx4pza

I've never seen you guys you these graphics before

Not the opinion - the language

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We will keep an eye on it. Thanks.

Gary

Not to bash the NWS or any body else for that matter just an interesting thought.
It is so amazing that even with all of the analyzing of the data and many mets. looking at the situation, the truth didn't present itself until with in 24 hours of the event, I mean all of the discussions of the reasons that it would not snow( several NWS discussions I read on the blog) and the laid out reasoning and then BAM my yard is white. It is nice to have this happen once and a while instead of the other way around. That is why alot of times I just wait to really dig into the thought of a storm until it is about a day out( unless Gary seems REALLY sure on something) but usually even he tries to tell people to wait until about a day before.

Hiawatha, KS - We've been getting heavy snow all morning.  It just let up a few minutes ago.  Schools are closing and the courthouse is closing at 1pm today.  We have several inches of heavy wet snow.  Will send pictures when possible.

Nick I agree 100% with your comments.  The snow or winter precipitation was not to have started until late morning or early afternoon; it is now late morning and the first wave of the event has passed us by depositing 2 1/2 or 1 1/2 inches of snow.  Looking at radar returns there is one area of returns moving north northwest with the Northwest edge near Clinton Missouri they will not arrive here if they rotate right and arrive at all until 3:30 to 4:30.  I see very "little filling" in South of I-70 or anywhere else other than this one blob.

Wolverine.........here's a little teaser to the winter forecast they put on the news home page.

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story/Wet-and-Stormy-Winter-Ahead/izkLOVCJpUqsWv4CMGzUAw.cspx

It snowed just a little here (2 miles east of Baldwin City) but is now sleeting.  The temperature here is 30 degrees.

Well someone on here wants to block me. I have the right to say wintestinks . if you guys like driving in ths stuff then so be it , winter stinks

We've had every form of winter precipitation here 2 miles south of Reno. Rain, gropple, sleet, snow (big and little flakes) and even a little freezing rain.

JHAWK23, the link does not work

Its on the home page......under top stories

Well....I don't see it now either.......they must have taken it down..

All quiet here in the Northland, still waiting for something to get excited about.  That's a nice batch of rain off to the east and southeast, if that can rotate around to the west and mix with the cold air maybe things will get interesting here this afternoon.

Congrats guys down in Kansas! Im up here in Omaha Nebraska missing this by just 3 counties! Too much dry air up here and not even one drop of anything.

Reafamily, I think you are WAY too overreactive about language. I've never ever been on a blog that blocks the words you object to. I've been online since 1994 and all blogs that appeal to anyone over the age of 16 are very tolerant of some of the more common and not-offensive four letter words, especially when they're not used in personal attacks. Come on, get with the 21st century.

darn...not much happened here at 135th and Switzer...at least not yet. We did get some sleet for a couple of minutes but other than that just drizzle all morning long. :(  Hope it comes back around to us!!

JHAWK23, what was it about?

Hey Andrew, care to post a date on that graphic? Surely it can't be today!

when I left Rock Port at 6:30 for work in Kansas City it was just starting to snow pretty heavily and it continued to rapidly pick up.  By the time I was to Corning and Craig on I-29 the highway was snow covered completely and didn't improve until near the Andrew county line.

HAHA I woke up here at Missouri Western in St. Joe to pretty heavy snow with large flakes that quickly accumulated to over an inch!! I jumped out of bed and did a snow dance and my roommate woke up and was like "What the..." It was hilarious, but right now it is cold with some flurries/mist.

Alex Pickman

I agree with Gary's policy that anyone should be able to express their likes/dislikes concerning the weather but after a while it gets old reading "I really hate <fill in the blank>" ... and yes, I know I can skip those entries.

It's just that this blog is so much more interesting and useful when people post info about what they are seeing/experiencing weatherwise and their thoughts about what might happen based on the models, etc, etc.

In any case, this is still a great blog. Just my two cents.

Becky, what's your temp up to in Parkville? Tiffany Greens shows 36.

RickMckc,
We went up to 34.5 but I am expecting it to drop back down when the next round gets here.  Hope I see some big flakes like I did when i was driving home this morning.
Becky

Gary, have today's events changed your winter forecast at all? Just curious and can't wait to hear your thoughts tonight.

Is this storm drifting to the East at all? Looks like it is stationary and just spinning like a top. Only had drizzle with some stronger down pours in La Cygne. No flakes for the South of the city.... yet.

Glad I left the horses in the barn today, it really is raw out there. Time to go and make some more cocoa.

Can anyone tell me if its going to change over to snow in Blue Springs?

Oh, you think it landed on the right spot!  Wow this is a very good day off, can't wait for 10 p.m.;)   Being that my parents are not as enthusiastic about "winter weather" as I am, maybe I should strap them down to protect the TV?LOL

Unfortunately, this event doesnt change what I think will be the overriding theme this winter.  I am glad that some snow fell before the jet dips south putting the KC area in the dry sector though...

...just wait until springtime comes around-there should be a near perfect setup then!

pvt - I know where you are coming from.  I truly do..but even during El Nino years, not each is the same and anomalies can/do happen which change the flavor ever so slightly, else all would be the same.

I am not in agreement that the flow will be dominated to the south as you suggest.  Yes, it will be an influence and will show itself..but I am not thinking it is something that will rule the Winter completely.  Guess more will be discussed this evening on air and over on the blog(s)  ;-)

Indeed Spring could be interesting in parts..  already thinking about that...can't help myself.  LOL

Nick - hope you got your chips down on "00".  I will defer comment beyond that.

Rick - I agree...I hate (.....)  LOL

I'm in south Kansas City, and so far, nothing's going on.  It's coooooold, though.

So... it looks like everything is pretty much done

Guess what it is doing here up north in Ex. Springs....

RAINING!

Well it looks like I will not see a flake any time soon : ( .

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_24HR.gif


hehehe

Don't know, saw that on the Weather Central Website.

Weathercentral.tv

Yea, that is not happening!

I don't think this storm is done yet, remember this is a slow moving storm and it still needs to spin by KC, we will have another round later tonight into tomorrow.

Turd I thinking you are dreaming! Because something smells funny.

Is it safe to say that we are done? I have to admit, I am disappointed. I was really hoping for a little snow. Is that weather map real?

Have we had a killing/hard freeze yet?  With all this talk of snow, I can't remember the temperature dropping into the upper 20's and staying there for any length of time, which is kind of the definition for the end of the growing season.  I still saw lots of insects around during last week's warm spell.

Anyone?

Done? Watching the radar loop, it is getting ready to swing back through Platte County...looks a ways from over...

yeah maybe not for you, but here in blue springs we have had nothing but mist... they said we would get a inch but that doesnt look like its going to happen since i havent seen a single flake yet..

If we reached the point where we are relying on anomalies to bring the white stuff to the KC area then I believe we are nearly on the exact same page as far as how the winter will play out scott...

If you are talking about the southern jet not being in complete domination then I agree with you....if you are speaking for those in the southern canadian praries and points ESE.  There should be an active jet around those parts too, but those 'backdoor fronts' coming from GL lows or even Hudson lows that we have had the privelege to experience the past few years wont be around this winter-and that is our most efficient source of cold air(while allowing moisture influx from the south).  a predominant WNW-NW flow looks to be in the cards(which brings the cold air sometimes, but doesnt allow for moisture influx from the south as well)...and with a dominant southern jet I expect the fusion of the streams to be further east- way further east than in the past couple years where it was centered over the miss. valley area.  And speaking of anomalies the east has gone several(atleast 3-4 depending on area) years without heavy snows and even nor'easters.  I hate to use the phrase 'that they're due' but its true, and it fits with whats happened thus far to boot.

I believe these four corner lows are going to drift south during the winter months, leaving the best opportunities for snow in the form of WAA events proceeding sharp intrusions of cold air.  While it will most certainly happen, the area isnt exactly known for prolific waa events so my optimism is tempered regarding heavy snowfall events until late feb-march when the jet starts retreating a little.  So, we are stuck looking forward to anomalous events.

Maybe I am just down on being in the south where it takes an anomalous event just to get snow to fall.  Did I mention its in the 70's here already? Its the middle of november for crying out loud! And it isnt like those rare 70 degree days in KC where its really windy and a front is coming.  Everything is behaving as it should and its utterly nauseating and boring.  We had Ida to deal with but honestly it wasnt that big a deal after having experienced real tropical events and cold events(it was a mix of both with 40mph winds and temps in the 40's)

Snowed here in Ottawa about a half hour ago - nothing stuck. Now rain alternating with or mixing with light snow. Ho ho ho - here comes winter! Gary or Brent, when will we get our first real cold snap/spell, you know, temperatures in the mid or low 20's?

Be careful eveyone.

and for those wondering if its done, here is an excerpt from the latest HWO for the area:

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT SNOW FROM A KANSAS CITY TO GRANT CITY LINE BY THIS EVENING
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

There is also the deformation zone to conted with as the storm is exiting...with snow on the ground, cooler conditions could prevail leading to another round of snow then as well.

*contend

Raining in St. joe now... interesting.

St. Joseph just had a 45 minutes to one hour of lite to sleet mixed with light rain.  The temperature is saying down there at 33°.  Looking at the current radar it appears as if the next batch of precipitation, good yellows and oranges and even some reds will likely rotates south of my area or we will be on the extreme northern fringe in and out of it.  The most effected by it are Clay, Platte and Dekalb counties in Missouri and Leavenworth in Kansas.

The biggest question is will it be snow?  Sleet?  Rain?  Or mixture of all?

Turd, I think that NAM map is from 06z - midnight last night. Here is the 12z NAM from this morning:

http://tinyurl.com/yl88zso

Will be interesting to see what the 18z NAM does with that mass of precip looming just to our east. This is the 18z RUC:

http://tinyurl.com/yzq69rl

Doesn't look that promising ... but I love these kinds of "developing situations" right over top of us because stuff just happens that the models didn't anticipate.

hoping we get a bit tonight! so far we haven't had anything in Raymore! I think I need to move a bit more North or to Colorado to fulfill my love of snow and winter!

It almost appears as if the precip. moving in from the east is a "new comma head" forming with another band of north to south (frontal like) rain in central/east central Missouri extending south into Arkansas.

As for the temps at my house, my thermometer( which in situations like this usually reads a couple of degrees too warm) was at 35 at 10 a.m. with the snow, but since then has been steadily increasing and is now reading 38.8 degrees, not only that but I have been putting my arm out in the rain and have not noticed any ice pellets since the new round of precip. began, I am wondering, not sure though, if the best cold air which is usually on the northwest side of the storm is not being shifted to the south and the west( the RUC is showing this somewhat I think)( I know how models are). It will be interesting to follow.

The surface low literally is almost right overhead. This situation is typical in these setups - Kansas City is left with very little if any snow - all rain most of the time (which is probably what will happen here as well), while areas to the north and northwest of the low get the snow.

http://tinyurl.com/yj735kl

Be careful on the roads even if it isn't snowing in your area.  Found my back wheels wanting to break loose very easily this afternoon.

f00dl3:  The surface low is actually down near the bootheel of Missouri if you look at the map you posted - both the surface circulation and the pressure readings on that map demonstrate as much.  

Sleeting pretty good here in parkville

Just a few flakes mixed in today in the 2 heaviest showers we had today, and then dry and cool. :(

pvt - I will go more into detail what I am thinking tomorrow after the Winter Forecast is out.  There are specific things I am thinking about when talking about anomalies.

I know it stinks to leave it at this, but will have more availability to go in depth tomorrow.

;-)

Good analysis regarding the remainder of this storm.

Nick - the coldest air aloft has always been south of us regarding this storm closer to the center of the ULL.  One thing to note is that the ULL is not done yet heading south.  Watch the vapor.

It becomes a trade off...we lose some of the top side lift/moisture, but gain the backside deformation potential.  Less moisture, but better temp profiles.  Much still depends on the track of this thing.  It isn't a quick mover.  

A few times this year, it had been thought we would have reduced precip based on dryslot potential, yet remained in a region of enhanced mid level moisture.  We have already caught the back side of storms earlier this month with rain bands [due to less cold air].

I am not ready to write this one off yet...but need to watch the better wrap around dynamics which will help cooling especially with some snow already out there to help.  

Should see some better banding form as the backend continues to develop on this evolving storm.  Will it get into the metro?  That is my question...

I agree Bizarro.  [How many times has that happened?  LOL]

bring on the first inch... TOMORROW. That's my date for the Snowflake contest. :)

wow so now it is 40 degrees here in blue springs... its definatley not going to snow.

weather team, is there going to be a longer video on here or the website of your forcast for winter where you will be talkin alot more in depth behind your reasoning? also, is tonites prediction gary's only thoughts or the weather team all together?

Hmmm ... this is interesting: http://tinyurl.com/djqspj

Notice that it's for TUESDAY 6PM into WEDNESDAY, not for tonight.  I guess HPC expects the upper low to hang around for a bit.

I was looking at the Platte Brook North reporting site for the temp and it has it up to almost 40 but here at my house in Parkville, its down to 34..looked like snow was starting to mix in with the rain again..thats a big difference within a few miles..

hey rick is that just showing that it might snow again on tuesday?

and correction not again.. for the first time hopefully here

it is now up to 41 in blue springs... no snow.

That just simply wont due Scott, I need instant feedback! In all seriousness though, since your getting a free pass tonight then you must have a better and more in depth explanation of your thoughts than what the weather team will provide tonight! JK gary et crew, you are great(ly ambiguous)!

Good morning Gary,

Thanks for the wonderful job that you are doing.  Quick question, when will the Storm Tracker Seminars resume?  There seems to be no new updates on the website.  Thank you so much!