NBC Action Communities

Good Morning, Gary!  Just reporting that we have fog in Leavenworth, too.  Glad I don't have to drive in it until it dissipates.

I want to add my appreciation for the Winter Forecast and all of the work you and the team put into it.  It sure is proof a lot of effort and expertise.  Thank you so much for your diligence!

Have a great day--to the bloggers, too!  Edna

Sunrise through a fog is always so beautiful, and today's show did not disappoint. I just with I had caught it on camera.

Jeremy, I have so enjoyed your cool and calm manner of delivering the weather forecast, and your work on this blog has been exceptional. Milwaukee is lucky to have you. I just with if you were going to move north, you wold go to WGN in Chicago, so we could still catch your forecasts on cable in Kansas City!  I wish you and your family much success and happiness -- and a cozy holiday season by the fire. You'll be sorely missed!

By the way, I think if would be fun if you did your last broadcast wearing a safety orange hunting suit -- an authentic Wisconsin fashion statement!  

Tina

****************************

Tina,

Thank you for the well wishes!  I will miss the many people I've met along the way, but in this day and age with the internet it is pretty easy to stay in touch. 

Somehow I've never been deer hunting, just duck and pheasant.

Jeremy

Well, if the next weather event coming in is less cloudy and less rainy than the last storm system, then I'm all for it.

Was just outside, and I can see sunshine and shadows (OP), what would be nice (if unlikely), and I never want any forecaster to bust a forecast is for us to warm up and get to upper 50's or even a quick 60 today, I think we all deserve it right now. Especially those folks out west who got nailed with snow earlier this week. :)

H.

LOL, Jeremy, I was just thinking you could still stop by and blog here, but what screenname would you use?  "Winterstinks" has already been taken!

Good luck Jeremy with your move and new job. Safe travels too! Be sure to drop in on the blog and let us know all about the snow...you know many of us will be drooling over your entry...LOL!! :) Your smile will be missed!!

The sun is out and very bright to my sensitive eyes.....it has been awhile since I have seen it, :)

I sure am hoping Thanksgiving stays dry....we have a lot of company coming from out of town to my parents house, it is along drive and if bad weather comes they will bail on making the trip.....2 turkeys 2 hams, it is a must all these people show to eat it all!!

Have a great day weather team!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

***********************

Monica,

Thank you for always being a loyal blogger!  If KSHB ever has a blogger hall of fame I would nominate you:)

Jeremy

Jeremy,

How about "WisconsinWins"?

Edna

**********************

I'm excited to go to some Wisconsin Badger football games again. 

Jeremy

Good luck Jeremy! Enjoy the snow up in Milwaukee! I hope you get a good blog going there, and be sure to post it's link here.

Your input will be missed over here, I hope you still swing by to say Hi and let us know what kind of weather you're having.

H.

************************

I will make sure to send some snow pictures.  I've lived in Wisconsin for 9 years of my life and only 1 winter was really 'bad'.  The others were tolerable...and I'm hoping this another one of those:)

Jeremy

Speaking of deer, we hung up 6 nice fat corn-fed bucks in southern MN last week.  Not like the emaciated deer at Shawnee Mission Park.  Lots of crops still in the ground, as it was very wet there from Labor Day to Halloween.  Jeremy, you would like how the pheasant population has exploded by your old home town.  Maybe you can get there again to hunt.

********************************

Where were you hunting deer in MN?  One of the biggest bucks I've ever seen in my life was pretty close to my home town.  That was back in the mid-90s...so there are some nice bucks around that part of the state.

Jeremy

Good luck Jeremy you have been a wonderful contibutor to the education of those of us on the blog, please check in from time to time!

Anxious for more snow Gary, but a few dry sunny days in the 50's right now would be great as my roof project gets underway, 40 squares and a snowstorm is not a good thing at this point. Anytime after Tuesday would be fine.

*************************

I'll stop back on the blog.  Maybe I'll start asking the tough questions instead of having to answer them:)

Jeremy

Jeremy- Wondering if you were going to be using what you have learned from working with Gary and the LRC to help you forecast when you move.  Just curious.  Have fun and enjoy the snow.  I hope they find someone who will fit in nicely with Gary, Brett and Jeff!

************************

I will use the LRC and hopefully show others its benefits in long range forecasting.

Jeremy

I am a constant reader of the blog, but an infrequent contributor.  Today, though, I just had to stop in and say good luck Jeremy in your new life adventure.  You will be missed!

****************************

Thanks for stopping by.  I will miss all the great interaction in the blog but am looking forward to the new challenges.

Jeremy

Jeremy, so very sad to see you leave KC, but happy that you are moving on to a new adventure and be closer to family. I bet your kids will love the winter activities like sledding, snow tunneliing and snowmen that last all winter.

Thank you for your great blogs and checking in with us weather scardy cats during severe storms and my fear of wind events.

Best wishes to you and your family.

**************************

Your reports from La Cygne have been appreciated in my time here.  With no automated stations we really rely on you checking in! 

Don't remind me about all the snow I have in my future:)

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Good luck to you in Wisconsin! We will miss you and the calm demeanor you have always shown on the blog. Keep us update and let us know when you get your blog set up. We'll sign in and "help" convince them of the LRC!

Pat

Gary or Jeremy,

Is the ECMWF still showing this solution on its 12Z solution today?

http://ggweather.com/loops/ecmwf_all_12z.htm

I went to this link and clicked on the 12Z run....i cant tell if it was from yesterday or today.

Thanks!

Okay, scratch that. I see now where the 0Z last night trended very much towards to the GFS.

The 12Z has yet to update for today yet....

Sorry Jeremy-it's analogus to catching "the big one".  There is a 16-point buck that is around the property we hunt.  It is a HUGE deer.  We saw it again the day AFTER season closed, so unless a bow hunter gets it, it should be around next year.  Let's just say it's "near" Windom. :)

Gary,

OK - so I just have to ask:  last night on air when you made a graphic for the teaser segment and talked about travel problems that are possible from a storm next week, you showed some possible snow along I-70 / I-80 and *on the graphic*, you included "Low Confidence".

Just last weekend, Jeremy posted about this idea (from WCCO in Minneapolis) here on the blog and he discussed how he'd never be caught in his career putting "low confidence" on a graphic.

So were you just ribbing Jeremy last night by putting that one there or what? If so, nicely played.  I had to laugh when I saw it!

********************

Keep in mind I said me...we each have a personal preference.

In the past I have put put something like 'Showers?' on the Powercast.  I was just saying 'low confidence' in regards to the 7 day.

Jeremy

Jeremy - Good luck in Milwaukee and thank you for all your hard work and dedication in keeping the blog updated on the weekends and while Gary was on vacation.  Hope this winter is not too harsh there.

It's a good day when the forecast is not quite accurate and you get a day like today.  Great to see the sun after five gloomy days, but today's 3 degree warranty will probably be toast.  Should've stuck with the 53 high you had at 6 p.m. instead of dropping it to 50 at 10 last night.  I doubt too many folks will complain.

Had a grand total of 1.72 inches of rain and melted snow from Sunday thru yesterday at the house in KC North.  Also had about a half inch of snow.

Bizarro Jerry - Good post.  Also thought about Jeremy's "low confidence" comments when I saw Gary say it in writing last night, lol.  In fairness, Gary used it for a regional precipitation map, and Jeremy was referring to a 7 day forecast for a specific location.

I will have to tell my friends in Milwaukee to watch for you on the ABC affiliate, Jeremy. Congrats! While we will miss you a ton, at least you can bring the LRC to a different audience too! Come me back here on the blog sometime, but don't rub in your snow totals to us too much!  

********************

Maybe I kept the snow away while in KC?

Jeremy

I just watched Doug Heady's winter forecast. He also uses the LRC. I was just wondering if you agreed with Doug's take on the cycle length and other info? By the way, since I know you read the blog, good job Doug.

Pat

Jeremy,
Are you taking on Chief Met.?  Good luck up there and your smile will be missed.  We may have "100% sunshine" but it won't be the same without you on the air telling us.
Becky

********************

Becky,

Thanks for all your great blog posts!  I'll miss the daily interaction in this blog, but hopefully we will get a good one going in Milwaukee too!

Jeremy

Jeremy, I'm going to miss having someone on KSHB that, like me, doesn't seem to really like snow quite as much as the others (both on the station and on the blog).  I'll really miss that. : )

Best of luck!  You will be missed.

*************************

Promise me in April you will send some Spring weather up north:)

Jeremy

Jeremy. I will say this like I did last week. Its a Damn shame your leaving the NBC Action News team. The Weather Bloggers on here that know you and all of your NBC action Weather Team are supporting you and you are always welcome back here any time you want.

We wish you the best in Wisconson. And have fun up there.

Zach Kumke
Kumke Weather Services™

******************

Thanks for the support!  I've had a lot of fun here and will only be a click away in Wisconsin!

Jeremy

Good luck to you Jeremy! As I have said before, it wouldn't be fair if we had all the good Mets down here;)  Hope you have a fun and exiting career, heck since you don't like a lot of snow, feel free to divert some down here.

**********************

I'm sure this winter will be a good reminder of why I don't like snow:)  Good luck with your studies now and in the future!

Jeremy

Jeremy good luck up north, we all know you will do a great job.  Well with the latest trends on the models and what they are showing next week it makes me wonder if the cycle length is in the upper 50s days.  I have been thinking it was around the 50ish day mark, but it could be around 58 days or so with the latest trends.  It will interesting to see how this next week sets up.  Either way you can trace it back a ways, but I would actually like a little longer cycle.  That would mean that the beginning of October hasn't returned just yet.  That is a good sign for the winter weather lovers.  Gary and I had very similiar winter forecasts b/c we believe the same things and see the same things.  I still have a pretty good feeling about this winter in the KC metro area and mine in SW MO, SE KS.  This is actually easy and a tricky pattern this year.  It is easy b/c  we are going to have much more action than last year.  However, it is tricky b/c so many systems look the exact same.  Fun Fun times, I might be in panic mode but I am excited.
Doug

Your giving me more hope of a real winter Doug.....:) Between seeing what Gary wrote and reading what you just wrote I am dreaming for a dream to come true!!!!!!! Yay... bring on winter AFTER Thanksgiving! Hee hee!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

I just wanted to say Good Luck! to Jeremy as he goes to Wisconsin.  I wish the best to him and his family.  You will be missed.  

Well...its tough to draw a conclusion on next weeks storm at this time.

I dont think its time yet to write off the stronger system JUST yet....that may come soon...lol.

12Z runs of the EMCWF, UKMET differ significantly from the 12Z run of the GFS.

The GFS is weaker and much faster as well as further northeast than that of the other solutions. Will be waiting for the 0Z runs this evening.


And as for Jeremy, it has been so wonderful having you here. You have been a tremendous addition to the weather team and will be greatly missed. Good luck with your new endeavor...

Doug, you really got specific in your forecast -- wow!  Talk about putting it on the line -- I'm impressed! If you're correct about the 12th and 13th, I'll lose the snowflake contest because I chose the 11th. But at least I won't have snow on my birthday. I could do without it.

Doug, what is your web address?  I'd like to read your winter forecast.  Thank you.  Edna in Leavenworth

I know this is kind of late, but it was amazing! At one point this morning on my drive the fog was so thick I had to pull over because vissibility was almost nil. The only time I've done that before was in the mountains when a storm was rolling through! :) We will all miss you Jeremy!

Happy Holidays,
Skylar

I like this winter forecast for here, but coincidentally, I will be in south-central MN, near Albert Lea from Dec. 20-January 3. I hope I don't miss too much of such a rare thing (snow in kc) while gone! Gary, does it look like the pattern would favor that region for snow too? I know that is really looking far ahead! XD All I hope is that the 15 warm days start and end around then! HAHAHA That way I won't miss anything XD


Have fun up north Jeremy, you will be missed by the weekend weather watchers!

Oh Jeremy, this is such a sad time, hate to say to goodbye to you.  I wish you and your family all the best in your move back "up North".  Thanks for all the times you commiserated with me about the snow and cold...I will surely miss that camaraderie.  Please come back and visit here often!  Take care!

deb in paola

I'm confused, who's idea was the LRC?

http://tinyurl.com/dklk29

Good luck Jeremy! We've always enjoyed your forecasts, you will be hard to replace. Send some of that snow our way!

Gary came up with the LRC back in the late 80s or early 90s.  We just have different beliefs on how it developes.  But I think Jeff does to and I know Scott as well.  Same pattern, Gary found the LRC.  I found it in college but about 10  years after Gary.  That is why it is called the LRC.  The only reason I don't call it the LRC is b/c I am not part of the LRC company.  When I worked with under Gary 8ish years ago that is when we really started studing it hardcore.  Scott got into it, I want to say 2 or 3 years ago.  I have my theories on how the pattern works from my research, but the LRC is the pattern.  Gary and I talk a few times a week trying to nail out the details on this years LRC.  I hope all of that makes sense.  Anytime I do interviews on how I do long range forecasting, Gary always gets credit from me.  
Doug Heady

I liked your winter forecast for Joplin, Doug.  Impressive details and with a lot of dates mixed in, you really are putting your neck out there. It will be interesting to see how everything unfolds this year.

I do read this blog from time to time and I see some of the comments that some people post.  I know a lot of people ask how accurate the LRC is.  So when Gary makes a winter forecast and I make a winter forecast we are going off what we know right now.  Because the LRC is in a fresh new pattern we don't know near as much as we will know about it in 2 months.  I think Gary, Jeff, Scott and I think it will be a pretty active winter but we will have to adjust forecasts as we get closer to it.  Just like on a 7-day forecast.  You adjust it everyday as you get closer and you get better ideas about what the weather will be.  Hopefully Gary and I nail our forecasts.  I think they are pretty much the same forecast, just for two different areas.  It is just much harder to do than what most people think.  It isn't a cut and dry thing.  Like right now I have been thinking the cycle length is around 48-52 days for weeks.  However, I as we get further into the pattern I am realizing it might be in that upper 50 range.  I think Gary's winter forecast is going to turn out pretty good.  Also for Gary & I and all of the other snow lovers out there, lets hope we get more snow than what we have had over the past couple of years.  If we don't, then my forecast will be wrong and I hate when that happens, lol.  

Best wishes on the new adventure in Milwaukee, Jeremy.  I lived in Appleton, WI for two winters when I was a kid--definetely a lot of real winter weather to enjoy.  You'll be missed here in KC.

Luvsnow
Well there is a trick to putting dates out there.  I am going to miss some, especially if we aren't right at the point that I think we are in the LRC.  However, I am going to hit more than I miss.  When I started in KC I thought I was a pretty good forecaster.  However, working under Gary and Jeff I learned to forecast much much better.  I have used that as an advantage over the past 10 years of forecasting.  Because I have always thrown dates out for years on all of my month long forecasts, I have learned to mention the big systems.  If you mention the big systems that your pretty sure about and hit them it really stands out.  The systems that I could see going either way, then I don't mention those dates.  However, it is a forecast, Gary and I are going hit and miss.  We just hope not to miss big or often.  Gary is a fantastic forecaster and is going to hit way more than he misses.  That is why you all watch and follow him.  I think most people know that we are making educated guesses.  With the LRC I think it gives me and the LRC team a huge advantage over other forecasts.  

Doug,

You mentioned earlier today that you might be in "panic mode" Why so soon?

I felt like your forecast was detailed and well thought-out. I was just feel that if you would have put that much thought and effort into it, you would feel fairly confident.

Are you just second guessing your forecast now??

Adam,
Just b/c I don't have the full grasp on the new LRC.  The pattern is fresh and I hate to be wrong.  So of course I am going to worry about it a little bit.  Also the models just flat stink this time of the year.  So I will sit and look at them and try to figure out why one model does one thing and so on.  I overthink things to much.  So is Gary going for any snow next week in KC?  It doesn't look like a very good bet.  December looks a lot better.  I never get to watch Gary anymore.  I grew up watching him all the time, sorry Gary your getting old.

Gary,
What do you think of the 00Z GFS?

Gary,

Thank you for letting us know about Jeremy.

Jeremy, we will miss you. You all have made a great team ... covering for one another when circumstances presented the need to do so. I wish you the best in your new endeavors in the snow country. I love cold and although I've never lived where I received lots of snow, the city that you are moving to is blessed to have someone like yourself, covering their weather, to keep them safe.  You will be missed ... enjoy the warmth of the fire place and a good cup of hot apple cider with the family. :)

*************************

Thank you for your comments.  I can't wait to have a home with a real fireplace again!

Jeremy

Well, does anyone know where it looks like this storm will be? Gary said something about southern minnesota, and I have relatives there. I am not going there, but I am sure there will be much traveling among the family. They live all around Albert Lea,MN, which is about where I-35 and some other major interstate intersect. Right now, does it look like they may have a snow-storm from this next system?

So it was Jeremy's last day today?  I knew he was leaving but I didn't know it was already today.  

I believe Sunday is his last day Joplin! We will miss you Jeremy thanks for keeping us updated during the weekends and on Gary's vacations lol! Go Badgers! Good luck in Milwaukee!

Milwaukee, he shouldn't be hurting for snow there.  I would enjoy that.

*******************

My last day is Sunday.  I really think the only thing worse than snow in Miwaukee will be the lake breeze on what should be a warm May or June day.  The lake breeze can turn a 70 degree day into a day in the 40s or 50s in minutes.

Jeremy

Good luck Jeremy!  We'll miss you bunches.  Come back to KC sometime!  Or else.

Just kidding on the or else part... You better make some pretty epic snowmen while you're up there, though.  =P

*************************

Nicole,

It was great to have you part of the blog...you were one of the loyal weekend bloggers.  You were also one of the few weather bloggers I had a chance to meet, you stopped by the Plaza Art Fair a couple of summers ago!  Hopefully I get a blog going at my new station soon!

Jeremy

Aw, you remembered.  =P  Good luck, dude.  ♥