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12Z ECMWF brings this thing dangerously close to the are Monday into Tuesday....

wow, what does everyone think?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084m.gif

Unless Monday's low moves SE, which I doubt, given that model forecast Kcchamps posted, the snow is going to be N and W of KC and we will miss it, except perhaps for a few garbage flakes at the very end and even that is suspect.  Now, if the models continue to trend the storm farther south over the weekend, that would change everything.

You can be "dangerously close" to the center of a major snow system and escape unscathed, as Kansas City has proved on many occasions.  If the center passes just NW of the city, KC will be fine.

So are we looking at quite a bit of rain with snow on the backside?

lol...ya the 18Z NAM is totally different from its previous runs. The 12 or 18Z runs yesterday were showing nothing like the solution they are showing now.


Just goes to show how much the models struggle this time of year....

sedsinkc,

I completely understand your point. However, i was only implying that with such wording because in previous runs of various models at this time yesterday had the storm as a more progressive type system and had it digging near the central iowa area and affecting southern areas of MN as well.

Big shift today..

Doesn't look like a big rain producer for Kansas City, probably only a quarter to half an inch at most, if I am reading the model forecasts correctly...but need to see the latest GFS run to see if it strengthens the system and moves it farther south compared to previous runs.  The professionals out there, please clarify this data if I am incorrect.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_084m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_096m.gif

Given we're 3 days out from the storm, the final solution will likely be different from what the current model runs show.  By Sunday I'll have greater confidence in what this system is really going to do.

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And so will we!  If this tracks about a half state farther south then it will really get exciting.

Gary

This is sudden, I hope it is out of here for the plaza lights on thursday!

sedsinkc,

I couldnt agree more with you. Its obvious the models are having a very difficult time getting a handle on this storm and the overall pattern shift as well.

If the storm digs anothe couple hundred miles further it could be tricky very quick...

seds - have you seen the propensity for any of the ULLs this year to dive north of us?

Not saying it couldn't, but I would not be surprised to see it go a bit further south yet.  Just my opinion..and gut feel for what I have observed in the last month.

It is going to have to bring its own dynamic cooling as the surface still looks kinda warm in the progs, but we have some time yet for models to give a better look at it as we near.

Looks like the mid levels will be close to able to support it perhaps as even this far out.  That is a bit more encouraging as we move closer and if it deepens.

Why not?

Adam - yes.

seds - I have abandoned hope of the GFS or NAM QPF forecasts.  I use them for trending of location, but not as anything specific.  I like other models and the HPC guidance a bit more lately.

Continue to think about how lately we continue to show a trend of having mid to low level moisture about.  How many of the past month's storms did we get more rain than expected?  Again, just an observation, but seems moisture seems to kinda be hangin around.

the GFS isnt very good. it looks like it goes a little farther north

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_078m.gif

Kcchamps,

That solution has been what it has been showing since last night.

It is largely identical to its 12Z run this morning....

So is this storm going to be north and west just like the last storm? Is this how a lot of the storms will be again this year, missing KC? I was just wondering how this could happen again, where KC does not get the majority of snow?

Boo on the storm. I have been really enjoying our 2 days of sunshine. I think I'm going to get lots of winter blues if we don't see the sun much this winter.

kcwxguy - Thanks for the info re model precip forecasts.  You make an excellent observation regarding the abundance of available moisture for storms to work with so far this fall.  Could be interesting going forward.

kellyann, don't fret too much yet, it's only mid-November after all.  Let's see what happens between now and the end of December and then revisit the issue of whether KC will get missed repeatedly this winter once again.  Gary doesn't think we will, and I have a more optimistic feeling w/r/t KC getting more snow this winter, although of course I'm not a trained meteorologist.

sedsinkc, no frets here, I was just wondering because I know Gary had said this pattern was totally different from last years, but yet the last storm and possibly this one, looks like a similar track to last year. I don't like to drive in the stuff and I got caught in Highland Ks during the last storm and about lost my mind trying to drive, there was a lot of snow there!!

0Z NAM did not dig this storm any further south.

In fact, it pulled it a "wee" bit further back to the north...just ever so slightly.


This solution would give areas north and west of Omaha some decent snowfall.

new nam is has it just to the north of kc. we just need  it to go 75-100 miles farther south

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What is amazing about this model run is that even near the upper low it isn't snowing. Let's see what the latest GFS run does.  The system is still offshore.

Gary

As long as I can drive to Lincoln next Friday, I'm happy! It will be clear by then, right?

I can't beleive 540 MB is all the way up in Canada, surly it would be cooler than that? Have I lost my ways? :)

0Z GFS sticking to its guns.

Still a very different solution from that of the NAM.

Has the low closing off over Iowa and further north.

Not buying any model right now with the evolution of the ULL for early next week.  

Too many inconsistencies right now.  00z GFS is just sorta odd.  I think it wants to dive south..and it may, but all models are having some weirdness trying to sample the vorticity characteristics.

juba - you have lost your way.  It is not unusual for the 540dm thickness to be in Canada this part of year....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/climatology/Height-500-NH.shtml

Beware of more fog tonight...more moisture trapped at the surface...

Scott,

Lol....interesting take.

Obviously you must know something the rest of us dont.

Scott wrote: "Continue to think about how lately we continue to show a trend of having mid to low level moisture about.  How many of the past month's storms did we get more rain than expected?  Again, just an observation, but seems moisture seems to kinda be hangin around."

I was thinking about that earlier today as a partial explanation for why we have had a dramatically cooler fall and yet still not had a low temperature below freezing. Moisture does seem to be much more abundant this year.

Yea moisture trapped at the surface this time of year, bam fog and low clouds, the sun is getting closest to it's weakest around here... in other words, when the sun's away the stratiform will play;)  Now I am going to say something that might make Scott puke, I remember back in October, with the storms/vorticity there were a few times in this "medium range" span where the NAM would have one idea, and the GFS would have another and as we got closer to the event the NAM seemed to win out, one ex. that I remember was the wet storm we had right before Halloween, the main storm was going to go to the north of us, but the GFS wanted to cut off some energy and have another storm to the south of us, but the NAM didn't really want the energy to break off and kept it connected to the energy up north, as time wore on the NAM pretty much kept to its idea and the GFS over time got closer and closer (even though it still wanted to cut it off just further east with each run) until I think the NAM was pretty much right. I think I have seen this trend more than once, so MAYBE and this is a big maybe this years LRC is a bit kinder to the NAM in these medium range situations, well as Gary would say I guess, this next storm will be another test of that;)