Evening trends updated at 11 PM

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

stjoelawyer — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:12:57 GMT

first again nothing to say unless it is a total bust have been looking at radar and water vapor moving almost due east no NE motion...that leaves me out...Will the thunderstorms in LA choke off te gulf moisture??

-----------------------

The thunderstorms in LA are a very minor factor. They are a result of the storm approaching. Other factors are at play on whether we will see any snow up your way at all. The storm may track just a bit too far south. I am not certain yet, however.

Gary

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

stjoelawyer — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:16:31 GMT

dewpoint up to 12 degrees temp still 24

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

UberSteve — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:20:30 GMT

It seems this will dodge south and east once again, with it being this late in the season
have we missed the "big one" this year?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

f00dl3 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:22:09 GMT

This storm system is sure a good "precip"-teaser if nothing else! Watching radar this thing is expanding NE and on current trends it would blossom along I-35 up to the KC metro when it gets to Kansas... but will this track hold? I beg to differ!!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

chrissa — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:23:01 GMT

I hope this is the "big one" Gary. We have lots of small storms, but nothing big, so let's hope the storm tracks a bit north and we get DUMPED on! Please Gary, my little ones are counting on ya! :)
PS. The realist in me predicts 2 inches ..........

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

radman22 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:26:32 GMT

Is it me or will we be lucky to get 1" out of this storm. Mother nature can be cruel!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:27:25 GMT

this is cruel...

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:27:20 GMT

One of the 9:00 news channels just reduced their forecast and that is always good news in my book

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:28:02 GMT

The NASA Story:
http://redicecreations.com/article.php?id=2659

Gary,

I think the GFS will have more snow, this is the same storm that gave us the ICE Storm in December?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Daniel from Appleton City — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:29:44 GMT

Hey Gary how much youthinking down here in Appleton City....I cant see your forecasts

-----------------

Daniel,

I am thinking around 2 to 3 inches your way!

Gary

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Scott — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:31:22 GMT

Here are a couple of teasers..

First, the dual surface low. One in TX and one near ICT.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20080131&endTime=-1&duration=0

Second, looking at the most recent RUC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/fp0_003.shtml

Look at the ULL forming on the 500mb. Yes, this will dig, but how much? Not near as far as the NAM. Also, I can see a bit of the moisture coming in...

Watch it streaming in...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

The moisture from this storm is not Gulf dependent. In fact, with the dry wedge, I don't think it is a factor at all. It may be starting to pull from the baja in fact.

Watch the loop...follow the ULL. You can follow its spin following the CO/NM border.

Also..watch this 3 hr loop...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_us_loop.html

Seems like a NE propagation to me...

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

lezakEF5 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:31:25 GMT

Go north storm..go north..go north..go north

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

DPannell — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:31:33 GMT

My CATS have WON!!! I don't care if it snows a foot now! wooooohoooooo KSU!!!!!!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

wthrwatcher87 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:32:01 GMT

Gary,

I added up the snow totals from the previous blog and got an average of 3.42 inches. This is with 69 snow totals added. On the predictions with multiples I added those in too and added the highest number in the prediction.

Brittany

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:32:26 GMT

I will make a Snowfall Forecast around 10:30pm and have it on my blog.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:33:07 GMT

GFS STARTING TO ROLL OUT!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:33:33 GMT

another station says we will get no snow. this is ridiculous. I think the storm will turn north.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:36:26 GMT

UP TO 12HRS.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:37:05 GMT

The thing to remember for me was that the GFS has been consistent with .25 to .50 inches of precip.....one run doesn't break it for me and the little twist I see on satellite is in a favorable position for snow for us.

GFS has been most consistent and the NAM has been a joke all winter

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Scott — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:37:18 GMT

I think the GFS is still missing in initializing the location still..atleast from what I can see on the IR/Vapor.

The RUC has it right...

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:38:16 GMT

I am sorry another favorable position for me its that both the other stations have backed off or even saying it won't snow at all.... everytime I have seen this in the past we have been hit with significant snow. I love it

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:38:35 GMT

Come on fire dog

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

SamsMom — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:39:17 GMT

This is killing me!! I hate the waiting game! NORTH, NORTH, NORTH, NORTH!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

steveluvs3 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:39:49 GMT

well somebody just changed their forecast from 2-4 to dusting to 1, somebody around here is gonna be wrong again. Why is it every year some sports team in our area weather it be professional or collegate gets somebody hopes up and lets us down every time.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

juniorfan32 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:40:00 GMT

what a bad night. Hawks lose, no snow, school tomorrow. BLECHH!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:40:20 GMT

still sitting at 12hrs on the GFS

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

spaceotteradam — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:40:34 GMT

andrew interesting story. :)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:41:06 GMT

Still waiting for it to get off of the 12hrs!! Im about to pull my hair out!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:41:09 GMT

Scott,

Does that mean you think there will be more snow?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:41:11 GMT

Fire Dog, what does the GFS look like?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:41:40 GMT

up to 24hrs now

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

FutureNursLori — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:42:08 GMT

I will say 4-6 inches for LS, blue springs, independence areas.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:42:23 GMT

Looks further south to me.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:42:28 GMT

Its up to 24! BUT I am NOT likeing what im seeing. More north then the NAM BUT!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

LVStormSpotter — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:42:37 GMT

Weather team how much do you predict to fall in Columbia???
More than KC?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:42:45 GMT

Scott - "the RUC has it right" ... but I am not seeing precip amounts forecast for it anywhere ... got a link?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:44:02 GMT

haha i dont think i have ever hit the refresh button so many times...all waiting for new data!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:44:21 GMT

Come on fire dog what is say?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:45:01 GMT

gfs yuck pewey :(

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:45:07 GMT

i NEED to wait till it get to atleast 36 hrs

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

spaceotteradam — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:45:50 GMT

andrew interesting story. :)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:46:01 GMT

BRYAN I know what you mean! Im hitting it on this and NOAA/GFS every 5 sec. ************* Watch Gary at 10pm. New GFS is out. Still has snow, but I'll let Gary give the details. Jeremy

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

pvt_murphy — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:46:15 GMT

remember people, the 'big' storm in the cycle would be the dec. 22nd storm. so dont get too disapointed with this...yet.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:46:19 GMT

It says .18 liquid at downtown airport by tomorrow midnight ...

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

chiefsfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:47:07 GMT

What time will the snow tomorrow here in Downtown KC?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:47:22 GMT

Rick where did you see that?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:47:24 GMT

it does appear to be further north then the NAM, but it is still too far south *********** It trended less again. Jeremy

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:47:29 GMT

Fire Dog, does the GFS look good for snowfall? *************** Some snow. But there is no way a WSW should still be in effect. Then again that was clear to us earlier today. Jeremy

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

spaceotteradam — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:48:21 GMT

andrew interesting story. :)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

spaceotteradam — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:48:30 GMT

andrew interesting story. :)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:49:19 GMT

Which GFS do I look at?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:49:29 GMT

Ok well ill look over the data at 4am to see what it says but 2-4 as of right now.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:49:32 GMT

... and .18 at Johnson County Executive ... but very cold should be better than typical 10:1 ratios ...

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:50:40 GMT

Firedog, if I tell ya, I'll have to kill ya ...

Accuweather Pro site has numerical data output.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RDub — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:50:40 GMT

Andrew, that's not really a "NASA" story. The story is actually about some group interpreting NASA data. If it's really something that NASA is saying, it will be on a nasa.gov website. When you are looking for scientific information, you should always look at a PRIMARY source.

If you look closely at the site redicecreations.com, you will see it also has a story about "New world order astrologers". Not exactly what I would call a reliable, primary source of scientific information. *********** Neither is the blog it came from;) Jeremy

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:51:17 GMT

heavysnow look at the 00 utc and 4 panel charts are nice

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:51:38 GMT

I believe Gary will either keep his predictions or lower the totals.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

steveluvs3 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:53:00 GMT

gary says on weather plus still 1-4 I-70 southward

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:53:12 GMT

Jeremy ... I'm shocked! :)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Fire Dog — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:53:30 GMT

Well, I am off. Unless something DRASTIC happens 2-4, BUT it can always change.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:53:54 GMT

The NWS service should definately take out the WSW. Jeremy, do you think they will keep the snow advisiory?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

CentralOP2 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:54:45 GMT

0Z GFS looks horrible. Most areas look to get .10-.30 inches of QPF at best. If you want heavy snow move somewhere else.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Barbara — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:55:39 GMT

"Neither is the blog it came from;) Jeremy"

Jeremy, you're in quite the mood tonight! LOL!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:56:16 GMT

Okay I am looking at the GFS and based on it at 10 to 1 ration would be 1.25 to 4.5 inches I-70 southward..... remember the storms NEVER follow the path exactly...and the storms have been more north all winter.... I still think up to 6 is possible.

What kind of ratios can we expect?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

RDub — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:57:30 GMT

I think the team has a done a great job holding on to the (probably correct) forecast. I know everyone wants to have a good snow, and gets excited when they hear about 5-8" totals, but if it's not happening, it's not happening. Gary is probably as disappointed as anyone.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

chiefsfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:58:32 GMT

I think the Downtown area will still see decent snowfall amounts

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

sertorius — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:00:29 GMT

Good evening again!!

The 0z Gfs-man-I can hear Dandy Don Meredith from Monday Night Football: Turn out the lights the partys over!!!! (Kind of like for us KU fans right now-oh well it was going to end sometime.....congrads to K-State-you have a great team this year!!!)

However, the 0z RUC has a different solution at 0z (6:00 A.M.) than does the GFS-it is much stronger storm and slower and is pulling warmer air in at the 850 level plus, it did indeed intialize that surface low in Texas better.

Well, now I am just enjoying trying to analyze this and learn!!!! Great opportunity to do that!!!! But man this does sting a little bit-we had so many ingredients present with this set up....

Bill in Lawrence

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

StormWyndd — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:01:43 GMT

;O)
Ok everyone, we know why the storm is sinking south.... Gary didn't go on vacation.
j/k
Honestly, I'll be very happy if I don't have to shovel the driveway in the morning.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Barbara — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:02:17 GMT

Does anyone think it's going to miss us altogether? That's the impression I got elsewhere (I'm so sorry weatherteam) *hangs head in shame*

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

TeacherInStJoe — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:03:03 GMT

Still hoping for some good snow up north, but have a feeling I'll have to wait for the next storm.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:07:10 GMT

I'm out. People, dont despair, the weather can change in the blink of an eye. I wont be surprized that when I wake up, we are still under a WSW.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

kb0rpj — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:11:47 GMT

gary and all, EAX just said in IEM chat they are dropping the WSW and lowering snow totals.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

adogg — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:13:27 GMT

I was soooo hoping that this would give us south our good snow(sigh)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

radman22 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:15:10 GMT

So close, bet yet so far!!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

adogg — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:15:11 GMT

I am starting not to like snow anymore

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

kb0rpj — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:17:16 GMT

EAX will be going 1-2" for the metro

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

weatherjaded — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:21:59 GMT

This may be a little blasphamus to the mets, but based on the statistics that 92% of all snowfalls in this area for the last 125 years fall in that 1-4" category. Without every forecasting based on the LRC or any prediction model, once you have enough information to decipher that it will snow, you can arbitrarily forecast 1-4" and be spot on almost everytime. Or on average 14 out of 15 snowfalls in an average season. I am without a doubt an amateur blogger, but it seems that you can be very accurate without ever attempting to figure out which model is lying to you this time.
simple idea from a simple person

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

simplykristi — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:22:26 GMT

Gary's not excited about the storm.... The totals are trending down... dusting to 2 inches in the KC area. Gary's disappointed. :(

Kristi

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

beckysma — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:24:01 GMT

Wow this is so interesting. I just watched Gary and a competitor at the same time. I had Gary on the cable and the competitor on hand-held battery TV, LOL.

The forecasts could not have been more different! The other guy was calling for the biggest snow of the season so far.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:24:32 GMT

This is not our day, snow lovers!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

kellyann — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:25:12 GMT

Teacherinstjoe, what do you mean? you ppl up there have been the ones to get the decent snowfall, not south KC, so don't complain! At least you have had snow!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:26:01 GMT

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

adogg — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:26:01 GMT

no its not!!!!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

subby64735 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:26:13 GMT

warnings are now cancelled ......darn the flies!!! Jim in Clinton
************* The warnings last all of about 6 hours!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:27:00 GMT

I saw that beckysma and their in house computer had snow in the north as well

Here are the 4 local stations forecast now

4-5 inches
2-4 inches
D-2 inches
D-1 inch

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

kellyann — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:27:04 GMT

Andrew, I don't know why you always post that you will have a new blog or forcast up. And also, the NASA story is from another blog that you are always on, so why bring it here?

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Daniel from Appleton City — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:31:48 GMT

This sucks and I have to stare at the winter storm warnings knowing ill get 3 inches at most

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

sertorius — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:32:29 GMT

Gary and Weather Team:

Just me again-kind of like the Saturday Night Live Skit: the People that wouldn't leave LOL

Man, the current water vapor loop is really cool-you can see that low comming together-what a great pic!!!

I just want to throw this out there: I hope my posts today did not come across as trying to challange your forecast-that for sure was not the intent at all. I was just looking at things and really voicing my thoughts out loud and seeing if any of them were even a stone's throw from being on the right track. The more I think about them, I can see where they could be construed that way-if so, I apologize. I do often worry about going too over board with all my musings but in the end, I am a History teacher who happens to really love the weather especially winter weather but do not have much weather acumen in reality-but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night....

Oh well, I am still going to follow this for a while, because it is fascinating to follow and it is always fun to learn!!! As always, the weather team did a fantastic job and thanks for keeping the BLOG updated and providing so much information from which to learn. But man, we had so many ingredients for a decent 4-6 inch snow for the whole area-just kind of stings to miss it beacuse we just don't have it very often. Well, at least in my little hobbyist mind we had many of the ingredients LOL!!!

Have a great evening-yea, I have to admit, I am still grasping at the 1/2 straw of the RUC hoping that for some strange reason things change in the next 4 hours-would sure feel better if that precip. in Oklahoma was heading more North!!!

Bill in Lawrence

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:32:32 GMT

I'm trying to find every way to get rid of the G.W. theory.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

PatsSoxCelts — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:32:59 GMT

WSW is cancelled, not surprizing. I am tired, going to sleep. Ill be up in the morning to see if the storm has shifted farther north. Goodnight all. Sorry Snow lovers, this isnt your day.

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

heavysnow — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:33:13 GMT

I know I am being nice when I say this... and I know Gary wouldn't mind it either

But I hope this is one of those times that Gary is WRONG. I know it doesn't happen often... but its got to happen every now and then

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Dwxtracker — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:36:04 GMT

Heavysnow, I'm right there with you!! lol! I was hoping for at least 2", but now it looks like that may not even happen :(

David

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Nick Rau — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:39:01 GMT

Well, we can't have them all, although I would have liked to see a Bigger storm system out of this. oh well we have to have a possible storm miss us sometime I guess this is it. Sorry I haven't been around much, Busy day;)
A sad trend anyway, well I hope at least Brent's area still get a good snow they deserve it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YESTERDAY WAS FUN:):):):)

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

Scott — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:40:16 GMT

I heard the newscast. I read the NWS discussion.

I guess I will have to learn the hard way.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_bu/.//+sa5_p500mb+am+21

http://weather.unisys.com/radar/rad_us_loop.html

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

kellyann — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:40:30 GMT

Time for bed, no reason to stay up. I still dont see how this figures in the LRC except yea, it does figure in the time frame within a few days, but that is within either way. The precip and nothing else is the same, maybe the time frame somewhat. Everyone have a good evening and go to bed, there is nothing to stay up for!~ Gary, Jeremy, and Brett, you guys are a good, accurate team! Keep up the good work and get some rest!

re: Evening trends as we wonder about this storm

weathermom — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:41:08 GMT

Bill, I think you are hilarious!!! I love your blogs....the holiday inn comment was classic!! Keep them up!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

simplykristi — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:47:16 GMT

I will check in tomorrow but I am not going to spend a lot of time following the storm. I probably won't get up til noon anyway. LOL Have a good night, everyone! :)

Kristi

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Barbara — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:49:00 GMT

Kristi, I'm jealous that you don't have to get up until noon! I can't remember the days of sleeping in that late!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:51:30 GMT

I'm watching the radar is any of those radar echos in Wichita, and south west of them reaching the ground?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

dpollard — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:53:53 GMT

What in the name of weather is going on around here. I'm about ready to puke. For the love of weather could a storm just get organized, grow into a monter, and dump some copius amounts of snow. Why, why, why does this happen time and time again. Can someone give me some hope for snow's sake? I would love to see the radar light up like a christmas tree and suprise everyone. I want everyone to be shocked, amazed, bewildered, and awestruck at a storm that turns sharply towards us just when modern technology seems to have a handle God says "not so fast, I will orchestrate a masterpiece in which the final production is wonderfully and suprisingly different then what was anticipated." I want to will this storm into exsistence. I believe, I believe, anything is possible until the strom passes by, you've got to believe.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:58:45 GMT

I still think it's too early to say how much will fall. The storm is 12 hours away. I guess you could go ultra conservitive and say 1-7 inches and not be wrong.

You don't need NAM SAM OR WHAM, just look at the existing pattern and use the force. umm err I mean .. umm yeah that's what I ment.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

rodney — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:00:07 GMT

guys,
I am puzzled by this one. The trend has been north much of the season. Is this a new trend for the storms to start tracking south? I thought the way things were going this could have been the big one for us. Do you think we will still get some larger snow amonts this season? Or do you think it is over for us?

-Rodney

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Scott — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:02:42 GMT

The gridded MOS is still ranging around 2-3 inches for KMCI.

Sigh.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:02:46 GMT

umm yeah dpollard, I think you need a social life. Perhaps a date?? You put some thought into that one I can tell. Or do you always talk that ummm,.. dramatic? Maybe that's why you don't have a social life? It would annoy the hell out of any normal person. Besides if you are putting so much stock into the weather as if your very existance depended on it,.I'd suggest a mental health professional. Have a drink,. get a date.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:03:51 GMT

Who cares what the weather does at KMCI,.. nobody lives at the airport!!!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Scott — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:05:45 GMT

You are right brian1234. What is the station id for your house?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:11:21 GMT

my station id is PWNL 69 Why?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

rodeomann65 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:12:42 GMT

well i think we are going to get more than 2 or 3 inches out of this storm i think we will get some where around 5 to 6 inches the storm is going to get on top of us and just pound us

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

rodeomann65 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:14:34 GMT

well i think we are going to get more than 2 or 3 inches out of this storm i think we will get some where around 5 to 6 inches the storm is going to get on top of us and just pound us

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:16:12 GMT

that's what I mentioned earlier rodeomann, however with the data that most of the weather teams are coming out with, it does not look that impressive. However as I stated earlier, it's Kansas weather and anything can happen. It's one of the most difficult states to predict weather in. But all in all the 41 team has always done a nice job.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Ronnie — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:16:42 GMT

brian1234, grow up.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Husky07 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:19:13 GMT

i agree with rodeomann its going to turn north and we will get pounded!!!!!!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

dpollard — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:19:24 GMT

Hey Brian 1234 this one's for you...

As I look into the sky
and the snow begins
I see legions of angels
coming to cover our sins

To most snow gives feelings
of utmost disgust
but to me these feelings
aren't just feelings but a must

The bigger they get
the closer they seem
and one day in heaven
with them I will team!!

No one in KC wants snow more the me!!!
Unless they freeze snowballs in baggies and keep them until summer just to spite the sun and warm weather!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:20:56 GMT

no thanks ronnie, I'm perfect the way I am. How about you grow down a little and grow a sense of humor? We already have enough wanna bee forcasters and rocket science engineers talking on this blog.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Ronnie — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:22:43 GMT

Grow up.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:25:40 GMT

dpollard,

Great one! Very touching.

"As I look into the sky
and the snow begins
I see legions of angels
coming to cover our sins "

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:27:14 GMT

My Snowfall Forecast as of 11:15pm,

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Daniel from Appleton City — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:28:04 GMT

looks like the precip in Kansas is moving in the right way to me? BRING THE SNOW TO APPLETON CITY PLZZZZZ

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Daniel from Appleton City — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:28:10 GMT

looks like the precip in Kansas is moving in the right way to me? BRING THE SNOW TO APPLETON CITY PLZZZZZ

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:29:05 GMT

Thanks dpollard

I'll copy and paste that for my scrolling screen saver, I'll read it every day and think of you. Full of wonderful religious overtones. That warms my heart like a summer's day. Thank you.

Here is one for you that I would like you to read.

Don't pray in my school, and I won't think in your church.

Now,. back to the program.......

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:31:22 GMT

I think that precip might make it up here before 7am.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Daniel from Appleton City — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:31:43 GMT

Hey Andrew where are you going to go to college at?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:33:55 GMT

We'll be right back to the weather,after this importan tmessage:
We got to get prayer back in to the schools, and the BIble back into schools.

Now Back to Weather :)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:36:38 GMT

Daniel,

Don't know yet, it could be KU or it could be Oklahoma, or I could do online college, then I would be able to get out 2yrs earlier. But I just don't know. It's something I continue to pray about.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:37:47 GMT

Ummm ... can we keep the secular/religious wars out of the blog?

Rev. Rick (seriously)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:42:05 GMT

I'll make a prediction right here and now that I know I'll nail. About 12 hours from now your going to read alot of comments from alot of whiners and complainers about how we hardly got any snow. Or not enough snow. And although we all would love for a great big snow for tomorrow, (myself) included, the computer models don't look that great. However remember Kansas weather is hard to forcast. Weather systems are codependent on other factors. Sorry to burst your bubble dpollard, but it's not god or angels.

The bottom line is that if we have 3-5 weather stations here in the KC area and they are all calling for a different forcast, what does that tell you? They all use the same computer models. What are the differences? Ask yourself that.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:44:33 GMT

Rev. Rick LOL

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:44:43 GMT

Sorry Rick,

I get carried away sometimes.
----------
I still think we might have a chance for 3" at least for Olathe anyway.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

FutureNursLori — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:47:34 GMT

Ronnie, I agree, Brian's comment about pollard was out of line. Nobody needs to get personal here, or take things personally here. Easier said than done? Yes. However, this blog is the best for KC weather and it is up to us bloggers to keep it that way, and, of course, the accuracy and involvement of the wx team. Thanks again to those I just mentioned. I still think this is gonna be one of those surprise snows. I am not just hoping... I am thinking so. I don't actually like winter at all, but I think this is gonna still bring more snow than we have had. Granted, we haven't really had more than 3 inches in the immediate metro thus far, but I feel this will be more, and all will be surprised/happy, depending on one's viewpoint. My two cents have officially been thrown into the well.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:48:05 GMT

brian1234,

There is one who controls the wx, and the universe for that matter.

I think we all are looking at the models too much. Ban the Models! Ban the Models!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:50:42 GMT

While Andy is changing into his alter boy robe and confessing his sins to Rev. Rick,... take a look at the name chart and compair it to the updated GFS model. The pricip is a teaser but it still looks encouraging.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Northlander — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:50:55 GMT

Well put Mr. McGinniss and thank you.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:50:56 GMT

Hey Andrew - it's OK, I admire your enthusiasm ... just think that it's sometimes wise to consider the venue in which those (valid) opinions are expressed.

And, Brian, I wasn't joking. :0)

Peace

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:53:35 GMT

Oh, no, Northlander ... my secret is out! :-)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:53:50 GMT

Good Night Everybody!

I hope I wake up with good news!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

FutureNursLori — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:54:56 GMT

Rick- Amen.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:56:05 GMT

Andrew, who is this Master Meteorologist you speak of?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:56:05 GMT

Hey Brian - can you post the links for that NAM/GFS comparison?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:56:30 GMT

Thanks Rick, but I plane to be TV Met, but I plan to be different, w/ a different point. A viewpoint that has a biblical perspective.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:57:27 GMT

Thanks Rick, and I pray/hope/plan to be TV Met, but I plan to be different, w/ a different point. A viewpoint that has a biblical perspective.
The one who gave me these interests in weather, will help me to be the best I can be.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Northlander — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:57:47 GMT

Last, I looked; about 30 seconds ago, this was a weather blog. Lets us discuss weather, if there are other subjects near and dear to your hearts find a blog of like-minded individuals and post all day and night. Religion, hmm…not a topic related to a weather blog, not a topic of discussion. Is a concept that we can agree to?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:58:28 GMT

radar looks promising in north oklahoma hopefully it continues to increase and move northeast toward kc looks like a couple of inches not out of the question but this will not be a crippling snowstorm by any stretch of the imagination,did I just say snow storm I'm sorry I dont know what to call it.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:58:54 GMT

Brian1234,

Read the Bible, it's all you need to know about the master/creator of all things.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 05:59:56 GMT

Andrew, I'd be interested in hearing about how that would work (not here, though). Have you posted something on your blog about it?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:00:26 GMT

no,. there arn't any I just wanted to see if you were that hard up for new data. You all need to stop taking this all so seriously. It's midnight, you should be cuddled up with your wives or husbands. Instead your on here looking for "NEW DATA" There are more interesting things on the web to surf than weather. This is a great tool here, but have a little fun with it. Man it's like talking to a bunch of book worms, engineers and ultra right wing christians.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:00:28 GMT

This so exciting to track this storm, I don't know if I'll be able to sleep!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:04:05 GMT

well northlander, it seems that in andrew's mind, god controls the weather, so perhaps lets blame the master meteorologist. I think your all missing the point here. I have stated some very valid facts here that have been missed.

Sorry Andrew I don't read fiction.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:04:12 GMT

LRCfan,

I was thinking the same thing! The radar is starting to look promising.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:05:06 GMT

Well, Brian, it is a WEATHER BLOG ... people who like weather and get excited over potential snowstorms tend to come out of the woodwork for such things. Yes, it's goofy, but we're nuts. Is someone forcing you to be here?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

CentralOP2 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:06:48 GMT

Please keep this site a WEATHER BLOG. Thanks!!!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:07:27 GMT

Rick,

how what will work? You me my different viewpoints?

I've posted a little on my viewpoint in my blog, if you go through the archives, I've posted a few things about why I dont believe in Global Warming.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:09:30 GMT

Andrew,I think the models are out on vacation looks like we will have some snow at least 2 inches if not a little more.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:09:40 GMT

brian1234,

The Bible isn't fiction, it predicts what will happen in the future. When the world will end, and Christ will come back and reign forever.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

CentralOP2 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:10:57 GMT

Here we go again.....

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:11:37 GMT

Andrew, I've read your GW stuff ... I was more interested in what it would mean to do meterology from a biblical perspective ... seeing that I have an interest in both. Have you written a post on that on your blog?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:11:47 GMT

Well b/c this is a weather blog, and I need to get to bed, and I want to respect others wishes, I'd better stop.

Anybody can email me, or PM me.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:12:23 GMT

yes Rev Rick I have a man, in my office with a gun to my head. It was either read the lates popular Science mag, or got on the weather blog.

I agree withyou and I love weather. I chased tornados for years. I'd love a huge snowstorm. And yes this is a great resource to get information from , expecially from other people around the city. I am a realist and I make observations. But I also have a sense of humor as well. And most people in here talk like they are meteorologists themselves. I have my geek out moments as well. BUt many take it all too seriously... some chick says "OMG,.. will it snow will it snow... !!!! how much will it snow, will I be safe to drive, will the schools get canceled!!! CHill out!! its just snow. It's Kansas.. and well it's rather amusing to me.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:13:19 GMT

LRCfan,

I know, I believe this is the storm that hit St. Joe. with the major Ice storm in December?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:13:25 GMT

Andrew, I just posted a comment to your blog ...

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:13:39 GMT

Hey Andrew, when is the last time you spoke to you imaginary friend?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:15:13 GMT

Not yet, but I will, I guess that's what I've been doing on this blog.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:18:51 GMT

Good night Andrew,. Darwin loves you.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

David Sanders — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:19:34 GMT

This is my first post on this blog but I've been reading for a long time. Please, Andrew: stop the discussion of religion. It does not belong in this blog and it is only reflecting poorly upon yourself. Let's stick to talking about this interesting storm.

Speaking of which, I find it interesting that Topeka reissued the winter storm warning for Douglas County (4-6" still predicted in Lawrence). I'll be surprised if we get more than 2". Hopefully, current models are going to be proven wrong! :)

-David W. Sanders (Lawrence)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:19:43 GMT

Andrew I've really lost track I believe that this is the storm I'm not totally sure you would have to ask Scott he is really good at keeping track,I know I was effected really bad from that ice storm too in leavenworth I was without power for a few days but thankfully it will not be ice this time.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:19:48 GMT

I agree Brian, that sometimes people get stupid-silly over the weather. But I don't agree that most people here talk like meterologists. There are all levels of expertise here from novice to pros and some, like Andrew, who hope to be pros someday.

As for me, I studied meterology many years ago at Univ of Maryland, but didn't finish my degree for various reasons before moving on to other things. But I still can't get the weather out of my system, especially in the winter. So, if I post stuff, I hope it's not coming off like a know-it-all ... I just get fired up.

Now, tell that man with the gun to put it away ...

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:20:28 GMT

I pray everyday, I read His Word, and my Family prays,Reads His word,and goes to church for more spiritual food.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

VdoManZ — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:20:44 GMT

brian1234 why aren't you i bed?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:21:34 GMT

Rick,
Got it!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:23:27 GMT

I have an I phone but not an I bed..lol

yes I happen to think I'm very funny. No seriously I'm about to turn in. Why is it past my bed time dad?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Ronnie — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:24:28 GMT

brian, you're not funny. You're an ass.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

VdoManZ — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:25:56 GMT

no father figure here... I just find it funny that you are poking at the weather bloggers for being on so late....while you are reading the same blog? anyway off to bed I hope we can keep the blog on track and weather related tomorrow, after all this is a weather blog :)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:26:02 GMT

LRCfan,

I know, I will have to see tomorrow, I better get to bed, if I want to get up around 6:30am to track this storm. :)

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:27:09 GMT

I really think we should stick to this interesting storm system and future weather issues,Andrew you are a cool dude but the religion should stay out of here and let's stick to this storm I encourage you to keep your faith elsewhere and continue your faith..

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:27:22 GMT

Andrew at least we agree on one thing.. I think we are going to get more snow than expected. The amature meteorologist in me predicted 5-8 inches for the JOCO area, with blowing snow decreased visibility, and cars all over the road cause most weather teams have down graded the storms , and well since only fools believe everything they read and belive it to be true, they will not use good judgement and comon sense, and there will be accidents. Watch how many cars are off the roads tomorrow , oh and for some real entertainment value, look for the 7 car pileup on the interstate tomorrow afternoon.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

David Sanders — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:29:26 GMT

let's keep things civil. that's what's so great about the discussion in this blog. where's gary and jeremy when we need them?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:29:36 GMT

lol,. sorry but with a name like ronni I can't take you serious. And yes I am very funny. And to a person such as yourself I may be an ass. But to most others I'm a riot.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:30:18 GMT

Andrew chat with you later and everyone be careful tomorrow if this does indeed materialize..

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:31:37 GMT

Brian, I thought there was more interesting stuff elsewhere on the internet?

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:33:11 GMT

i'm not making fun of all bloggers, just the ones who are wound up too tight. And no I'm not refering to Andrew, he's pretty mellow, and that's cool. If you took the time to read what I said a few minutes ago, then I wouldn't have to repent,..oooppss,. repeat myself again.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:35:08 GMT

yes you all have bene warned of my prediction,. well there is, but watching porn all night has it's limits. Plus I'm fresh out of lube..

come on seriously , nobody smiled at that.??.. wow what a bunch of stiffs. It's actually more intertaining on here.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:36:08 GMT

here check out this latest website that is really hot....

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/01/30/2461959.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

brian1234 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:38:53 GMT

alright i'm off to bed,. I can't use all my material in one night,..

Ok serious now,. everyone please be careful tomorrow. Take yourtime getting in to work in the morning, and wath out for those crazy drivers. Cause you know, that everyone on the road is either a crazy person or a moron. And your the only normal driver on the road ,. right?

Good night everyone. be safe tomorrow.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:44:28 GMT

Brian, for what it's worth, I smiled at your humor ...

If we're all really lucky, this will all be gone in the morning!

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:48:45 GMT

It's cool that we have fun in here and talk about weather but we must respect Gary and channel 41.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:51:41 GMT

I'm surprised Gary has not woken up and wrote a new blog about the increasing area of snow just south of wichita lol

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

RickMckc — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:54:18 GMT

LRCfan, that is very interesting - looks almost like the upper low is closing off ...

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

LRCfan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 07:00:26 GMT

it sure does these models have not done too good this winter so far and the gfs has been the best so far this season.

re: Evening trends updated at 11 PM

radman22 — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 07:06:34 GMT

I have a feeling the precip will rotate around the low pressure. It will have a hard time reaching all this way. We will have to wait for the low pressure to get closer before any snow starts here, which will be tomorrow sometime, if we are lucky.