Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

GianlucaRossi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:10:06 GMT

1 foot of snow will be awesome, When the major snowfall would take place?

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Or 1 inch. Be careful, we aren't predicting it for your backyard yet.

Gary

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

littleladybugs — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:15:25 GMT

so another round of winter! i love winter but man its been a wet cold one!
so you think we will be under any watches or anything?
are we talking just snow or snow/sleet or ice???

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

homerun — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:17:02 GMT

Good morning Gary--This storm should be interesting. Since it corresponds to the December 10th-11th ice storm here in Topeka to KC, you are right the track will be crucial. I bet we could get that 1 inch or who knows! Actually when would the precip begin to change over to the icy stuff or is that a question too? Would it also last most of Tuesday night? Keep up that good work. I will let you know our storm totals. Michael/Berryton/Topeka

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

KSuds — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:17:15 GMT

Dear Snow God,

Please set your aim on Platte City!!! I've been dreaming of a 1 footer for a long time.

Sincerely,
KSuds

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Bryan — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:17:48 GMT

WOOHOO! Part of me wants to be really excited, but I will contain myself until later tomorrow. A lot could happen between now and then.

Bryan

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

heavysnow — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:19:15 GMT

I am liking the looks of the models myself.... I would like the changeover to snow as quick as possible.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

John Moon III _Weather Enthusiast_ — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:19:19 GMT

WOW, I sure hope we see some snow down here on Tuesday!!! I would love a snowfall that lasts more than 1 day :P I know our chances in the southern viewing area looks slim for major snow, but like you always say, it could change. (What are the models trending towards?) I hope more snow than rain, rain is nice but it is winter and needs to be snow!!! :) It looks like well will see some very interesting weather the next couple of days though!!! :) READY FOR SOME WEATHER!!!

What are your thoughts right now?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

nwmowx — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:21:46 GMT

I will keep my SNOW HIT K.C. thoughts going all day for you guys!!! Believe me, you can have it!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

heavysnow — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:22:27 GMT

I have seen 12 inches of snow fall in one storm just 2 times in my life.... in 1989 during that brutal cold stretch and then back in 2001 right when I had just bought my first house in Blue Springs. We received 12 inches of snow and a pipe in my house burst that day. It was a new house and I couldn't the shut off so water flooded my basement. It kind of sucked but I still had 12 inches of snow outside!!

I am due for a storm greater than 12 inches.....it is my turn Gary!!

15 inches please

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

MrSteve — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:23:10 GMT

Spring is going to be gorgeous.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

mitchinolathe — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:26:15 GMT

This would be a fantastic birthday present! It was 3-4 years ago we got a good 6-8 inches on my birthday, WE'RE DUE!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Jayhawk — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:27:15 GMT

Can someone post the GFS link for the map Gary is referring to. Thanks.

Don

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Mike — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:29:04 GMT

It would be neat if Lawrence gets slammed...as long as it can hold off til maybe 10 PM Tuesday night so people can go to the caucuses.

Then, let it snow!

FWIW, the most I ever saw at once was when I was a kid in Omaha...we got 18 inches that fell over 2 days on a weekend in March...on Friday it was 70, the Saturday a blizzard...and we didn't have to go back to school til Wednesday!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

jbtornado — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:30:48 GMT

St.Joseph look out, you are the snow capital around... And I just have a hunch this is going to go north a bit!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Northlander — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:30:58 GMT

Ah yes, another day in Kansas City and another chance of snow in the forecast. With any luck, the angry little low will track either north or south leaving Kansas City happy and mostly snow free. I enjoy see snowstorms on my television when all the action is located in the arctic.
I understand that the majority of the bloggers really enjoy the snow, but my assumption is that most residents of this area do not even know about this blog. This would not be by lack of effort by the weather team. I have heard them mention the blog many times on the air. If more area residents blogged, especially the people who commute every day to work, the general dominating theme of the blog would be very anti-snow with the exception of Christmas.
All I hear at work is, when will it warm up and when will all the #^&$*$$9 snow go away.
Well no matter what happens the daylight is increasing every day as are the average high and low temperatures and it is only a matter of time before the cold area retreats to the north.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

heavysnow — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:31:28 GMT

Here you go Chickenhawk

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Look up 4 panel charts

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

JPnKC — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:36:02 GMT

Brett or Gary --Is this storm setting up like the ice storm moisture wise? It looks like that to me..

What a strong warm front this morning!!

This storm will be incredible to watch come together- ---whoever gets the snow!!!

I will be ready for you new graphics on the 11 o'clock show..

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

sgt duck — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:36:49 GMT

Gary, Its been since the winter of 80 and 81 since our area (Chillicothe) has seen a foot of snow. I think it would be great, I know it would slow people down but that may not be a bad thing. People just need to realize mother nature is in control and go with the flow. Dont drive 70 mph on our roads, slow down and take your time. Spring is coming, enjoy the winter weather. Tim

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

weatherguru5 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:43:10 GMT

Gary,
Really looking forward to some more snow. My wife is a teacher and says that she needs a snow day soon! Hopefully this one comes through for us!

Nick

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

beckysma — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:47:21 GMT

Northlander, hoping for a snow day on Wednesday!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

CentralOP2 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:50:19 GMT

Currently the warm front is just to the south of St. Joseph and Kirksville.
South of that line the temperatures are near 60F already.

Here is the latest from the 12Z GFS!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_slp024042_l.shtml

It is only 36-42 hours away! We had better get some snow out of this event!!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

KCDewayne — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:51:51 GMT

just so you all know it is currently 60 on the south side and humid it feels like miami how can u all want more snow how do you not love this weather!!!!!!

Im am more of a Thunder Storm Lover then a cold and snow lover

Hey Gary what does febuary look like you think we will see a warm febuary or cold?

-----------------

I think the ups and downs will continue through February.

Gary

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:53:28 GMT

WooHoo!!! I was correct in saying South KC would not get much!! I was pretty confident on this and will remain so. Now I don't have to cancel my plans for Wed morning, thank gosh!! Bring on spring!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

BBTye — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:53:50 GMT

With all the excitement today, I want to stay connected on the road!

Can anyone recommend a good way to get NWS watches, warnings and HWO "pushed" to a mobile device? Also, does anyone access the blog on a mobile? What's the best way to do that?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

ShawnP — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:55:07 GMT

I saw 18 inches in Maine in 88 and was awesome with a nice full blown Noreaster blowing the snow sideways.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

CentralOP2 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:55:17 GMT

KCDewayne,
I believe the meteorologists at NBC have said that February will be warmer than normal temperature wise. (Don't quote me on that). However, I think this month will produce a decent amount of precipitation, including the event in the next 48 hours.
CentralOP

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

momtylerethan — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:56:38 GMT

I'm trying not to get to excited but I can't help it. I keep saying my boys (4 and 7) have never seen more than 3in of snow like I did when I was a kid. I want them to experience a big snow. This would be a perfect birthday present for my oldest to wake up to on Wednesday-no school and lots of snow. He turns 8 on Wednesday. Keeping my fingers crossed.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:57:35 GMT

60 degrees in Lenexa. Feels like a spring day. Wonder if there has ever been a storm that came through that started out as strong severe thunder storms and then turned in to a snow event with accumilations. That would be a crazy weather day. Well I geuss I will keep my fingers, toes, legs, arms and eyes crossed in hope for some great snow fall amounts.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

mattmaisch — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:01:20 GMT

Gary,

Wow! This is really exciting!! Can't wait to see the new models through the day. Let's hope the echo the 12Z data! What a great day...

Matt.

----------

Matt,

It still may go into the usual spots that have been hit this winter, so let's see. There is one key factor that I am looking at and we will go into this later (a cold surge moving into northwest Nebraska)

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

PK in LS — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:09:50 GMT

I was 4 years old during the winter of 1959-60 and lived in Trenton. We had well over a foot of snow in one storm. I remember it as if it were yesterday. We've got pictures of my older brother and I on the porch and the level of snow is unbelievable. We had a slight hill in our yard and all the kids in the neighborhood came over to build snow forts. They lasted forever because we poured water on them when we finished and the temperature stayed below freezing for days and days. My dad worked for MoPub and an area around the power plant was used to dump the snow taken off the streets. They had a pool to see how long it would be before the snow in the pile all melted. The winner guessed a date in April.

--------------

Well,

Let's see what happens this time. This year's pattern is similar to that of 59-60.

Gary

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

bgmike — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:10:23 GMT

I refuse to get modelitus...............I refuse to get modelitus.......I refuse to get modelitus.... Maybe if I keep saying it I won't get too excited.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Tinkermom — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:11:25 GMT

Gary,

So all looks ok for tomorrow morning right (meaning no precip)? We have an early flight out to Florida where it looks like they are experiencing near record highs! I am looking forward to wearing my shorts and the kids are hoping for a swim tomorrow afternoon. :-)

-----------------

Tomorrow morning should start out dry, but temperatures will be dropping.

Gary

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fred — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:21:18 GMT

I refuse to get excited until Gary tells me more than "1-4..."

Also, did the strength of this storm and its track surprise you Gary?

Fred

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Weatherfly — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:26:32 GMT

Gary,

Will you feel confident enough after the 18Z runs to post an initial snow map? I'm taking a stab now of a broad area of 4-7" snow around the metro.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:34:13 GMT

I just watched action weather plus online and it looked like it way to the south??? what was that??? I am cornfused. oh well.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

inlimbo — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:34:59 GMT

I have 68.8 degrees in Peculiar...unreal... Its hard to imagine a snow storm right now..Looks like its going to be a battle of when the cold air sinks far enough south..

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

jesstone — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:35:17 GMT

Hey, Guys, I too am a snow lover......more like a kid than an adult. BUT........I am skeptical this time around. Remember how we were supposed to get 1-4 inches, and at my house (south O.P.) I saw ZERO. I would LOVE to get dumped on ( 6 or more inches), but I think that would take an act of God at this point. Don't get yourselves too excited, because, as I have found in the 2 years here, K.C. doesn't get the "good " snowfalls.

Oh, and if all else fails, try the trick my daughter tries..... put a spoon under your pillow and wear your pjs inside out:) She is conviced it works!!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

sertorius — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:36:23 GMT

Gary:

Good mid morning to you!!!

On my off hour so of course I just had to take a peak!!! Ok, here we go again-Bill's obsession with surface charts:

1. The front at 16Z has made it through Concordia, Kansas and looks to be on Manhattan's door step and, if I am looking at things correctly, the surface low appears to be sitting right on the broder of Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa. Will be intereasting to track this front and see how far it progresses in the next 3-5 hours.

2. Looking at the water vapor imagery, that Upper Level Low is really digging into S Claifornia-it is almost to the tip of the Baja of California-at least I think that is what I am seeing!!! LOL

This is going to be quite a trip watching this all develop-what a tempertaure gradient there is going to be with this storm-wow!!! I promise, I will not Blog every hour with the surface observations, but I have always found it so interesting to follow the fronts and the satelite imagery and of course I get carried away!!!

Ya know this has been a great winter already but man, as a freakish snow lover, to miss two major snow events in 5 days by 100-150 miles would be..well, it would sting-but, I could add to my KC snow storm book-Missed it by that much....
Have a great day

Bill hooked again on another snow chance in Lawrence

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

MikeTrainor1 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:39:37 GMT

northlander... i think there are only about 3 or 4 of us who participate regularly in this blog that would rather see less snow, or none. snowlovers are definitely in the majority here! you have to admire their enthusiasm at least. :-) - mt

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Barbara — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:40:31 GMT

62.4 beautiful degrees in Olathe. The breeze coming through my windows feels awesome! My house will definately get a good airing out today! I wish we could just keep this weather for the next week!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

KSuds — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:51:23 GMT

I LOVE SNOW!!! Bring it on! I really don't think it could ever snow to much for me.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

CentralOP2 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:51:49 GMT

The temperature gradient across the region remains EXTREME. It is still in the 30s in northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska with a north wind there around 10mph. Meanwhile, the wind is westerly around Manhattan, KS with temperatures in the 40s. Eastern Kansas is near 60 with southerly winds. It is another crazy weather day.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Northlander — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:51:50 GMT

Agreed MikeTrainor agreed. I wonder what they will be blogging about in June or July when there is no chance of snow.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

CentralOP2 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:52:35 GMT

I say bring on the snow as well. I think we will definitely have enough cold air to filter in to give us a good snow event.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

f00dl3 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:53:07 GMT

Ok, fine. Here's what I think right now:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=796045&id=508280943

I could be wayyyyyy off on this (by as much as 6" in some spots), but this is based on instinct, and I am going this one by my first instinct.

The dense fog this morning symbolizes that there is plenty of moisture. I think if anything complicates this it will be temperatures.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

beckysma — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:53:48 GMT

I love days like today, I went out on my lunch hour just to take some deep breaths of fresh air and feel the sun on my face.

However, I also like a good snow, and I know spring will be here soon enough. So I'm rooting for the snow!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

nastyweather — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:54:36 GMT

Well last Thursday pretty much wiped me out mentally on the idea of having a decent snow storm this year. However, I don't remember a single time this winter season where it's been this close to the storm and we not only have the NAM and GFS in relative agreement, but there is this much moisture. Not only is it blue, but magenta too, WOW this is crazy!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

LibertyB — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:55:07 GMT

I really hope we're not getting excited for nothing this time.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Brent — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:56:39 GMT

"I think there is a strong possibility of a 1 foot band of snow somewhere between Paola and the Iowa border. "

paola!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
come on this is what I have been waiting for all year!!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Brent — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:57:01 GMT

nice snowfall map at 11:50 Brett!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

f00dl3 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:57:23 GMT

Argh delete the above one -- linked to the wrong photo the wrong way...

Ok, fine. Here's what I think right now:

http://photos-d.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sctm/v183/73/61/508280943/n508280943_875663_370.jpg

I could be way off on this (by as much as 6" in some spots), but this is based on instinct, and I am going this one by my first instinct.

The dense fog this morning symbolizes that there is plenty of moisture. I think if anything complicates this it will be temperatures.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

MikeTrainor1 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:58:38 GMT

northlander... in june or july it's been, at least historically, about the severe weather, until that dries up. blog postings dry up too. july and august tend to be "boring" to weather enthusiasts since most of the time it's one day after the other of the same hot, sticky weather. arrival of any clouds or chance of rain generates a little excitement then. lol.... all in good fun, snowlovers! ;-) - mt

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

ohsgal — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:02:00 GMT

I am liking this 64 degrees can we just skip the rest of winter please?????

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Nick Rau — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:09:15 GMT

Annnnnd, another storm to track...
After what happened a few days ago I'm not going to get way too excited, but will be watching, things to keep us all grounded...
not a negetive tilt...
doesn't form a ULL....
WIDTH of the snow band can change as well as track.
Not to be a downer or anything still though looks like it could be fun!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

W0XDL — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:13:32 GMT

I would agree with many of the thoughts expressed here today....I don't want to get too excited yet....it might just be 1".....could this be our turn?

I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

DL

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:14:53 GMT

NWS has us getting less than half an inch...hope so. I have family driving up tomorrow night for a flight out of KCI and wondering if I should call them to let them know to come earlier. Anybody have any idea's on when it will really get nasty? (If it does at all?)

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:16:53 GMT

This whole storm system is a joke the NWS is pretty much right

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:17:38 GMT

Absolutely beautiful outside today!! My weather station has it at 73.1 and the windows are wide open and wearing shorts!! :)

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

mattmaisch — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:18:32 GMT

Check out this snowfall link from the 12Z NAM!! Seems hard to believe, but wouldn't this be Amazing!!!

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

Matt

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:20:13 GMT

Can someone tell me why NWS has WSW out for north if the maps show the Precip south?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

inlimbo — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:20:23 GMT

70 degrees in peculiar... talk about your wild temp. swings

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

inlimbo — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:20:37 GMT

70 degrees in peculiar... talk about your wild temp. swings

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

StormWyndd — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:21:02 GMT

Brent, for those of us at work who can't see the show & the snow map, what'd it say?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

inlimbo — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:26:00 GMT

Seems like everyone(forecasters and maps) are all over the place on this one..why such a difference????? So far its between 1/2 " and 18" lol.. and its not THAT far out..

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:26:42 GMT

Where is Bretts snow fall map? Is it available online???
mattmaisch thats a cool link I like the potential.
I think that everyone that wants it to snow should hope it doesn't
And every one that doesn't want it to snow should hope it does.

So here it goes. Its not going to snow at all!!!!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

supercell — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:27:40 GMT

StormWyndd: 12Z NAM reads 14" for KC if you believe the high end.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

RodB — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:27:44 GMT

That maps put KC in line for 12". I'll believe it when I see. How quickly we all forget last Thursday.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:29:18 GMT

67 in Lenexa. With sun screen on. Man its a hot one.

Hot time, summer in the city.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

f00dl3 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:30:24 GMT

I am becoming a bit concerned that since it's up to the 70s now (even North of the river here) - that that may cause issues with temps tonight & tomorrow ...

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Luthur — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:31:08 GMT

Everyone is falling for the models again. Have't we learned?

I'm sticking with 1 - 2 inches in South KC. It'll be about the 8th time this winter that has happened.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

mamaof3girls — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:32:32 GMT

It is now 71 down here....feels great!!! Tomorrow should be exciting for someone!! Might it be my turn, LOLOL?!!!! I am not getting excited yet? I will enjoy today though.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

reafamily — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:33:07 GMT

Please, please, please snow!

I love snow and nothing was better than the 26 inches we had at Adrian last December. Bring it on.

We will be posting "boo-hoos" and "come on winter" this summer. I HATE the hot, humid weather and am not looking forward to summer at all.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

marlina10 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:40:46 GMT

I hope a lot of snow falls all around Kansas City. I'm tired of seeing the northern areas get 10 inches and Johnson County getting one inch.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

sertorius — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:43:11 GMT

Gary:

Just me again-I know, i know but I am on lunch now so I swear I am not blogging while students are in my room LOL!!!

Looking at the 18Z surface charts the front has passed throughj Manhattan, Kansas-they are already in the lower to mid 40's-fun to watch the progression of this front-it has moved a significant amount since this morning. Again, will be fun/interesting to see where it is in the next 3-5 hour and see if the front can get through Topeka by say 3-4 P.M. . Wow-another fascinating strom to watch!!! 2 in 5 days-so cool!!!!

Bill so into this in Lawrence

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Buddy — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:44:00 GMT

I lived in Silver Spring, MD a few years back and woke up to 36 inches of snowfall from about a 16 hour period. I've never seen anything else like it.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

JeriCorrell — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:45:31 GMT

While the rest of you are praying for high snowfall counts, I am in love with today! My furnace is off, I am actually not at work so I can enjoy this summerlike weather and have my doors open. I don't care if I am in the minority, I am loving this.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Jennifer and Kelsey — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:45:44 GMT

i gotta tell ya...i went for a run and it's simply awesome outside. i see a little bit of green grass poking through the yellow stuff on my lawn and i'm getting itchy for spring.

To answer the question about what weather hobbyists do during the summer...we watch out for hurricane weather and head south if we can.

Jennifer

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Brent — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:47:26 GMT

the snow map had 6 inches in st joseph 3 to 5 for the metro, and lesser amounts to the south

but forget that!

look at this!

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

come!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:51:24 GMT

Brent-settle down!! LOL . I have a bad feeling we are going to get missed down here again. I would say 1-3 if we are lucky, unless the track takes a more southern track....

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:54:06 GMT

Brent, don't ya know this will not happen? Maybe for KC, but not South KC..We might see a mix and dusting..If any accum. I would go for 1 inch.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Scott — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:56:05 GMT

I do not want to shovel snow. However, selfishly, I am praying for this storm to connect in this area. I have been waiting over a month on this one...and it fits perfectly. Even if it does just miss, I feel that the analysis was valid.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

4caster — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:00:28 GMT

Someone mentioned why the NWS has the watches for the north and the track is further south. This is because they posted those advisories BEFORE the 12Z model came out. All of the discussions are based on last nights (00Z) model runs. The new data is for the afternoon shift, and are they going to have fun deciphering it all! Still am not 100% on board, as I have seen a model shift back and forth in a 6 hour period in '05. But, the kid inside is dreaming of 18-24 inches of snow that stays for longer than a day!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

heavysnow — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:02:23 GMT

I think those people calling for one inch are crazy....the GFS has been real consistent bringing snow on this forecast and this storm in December produced quite a bit of precip.

The NAM actually got the last storm correct and has progressed south each run but has been pretty consistent on moisture and temps

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

N2mountains — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:07:57 GMT

Remember last storm, I think I will wait to see flakes before I get all into another round of this. YES I-70 south is DUE, but will this be the season highlight, or another bust? Time will tell.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:08:01 GMT

Heavy snow, I think one inch for south KC is correct, but maybe not for areas right in KC and to the north.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

heavysnow — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:10:10 GMT

sorry kellyann, but if you look at the GFS and NAM they are both painting a consistent band of snow in KC Metro, even south.

We are going to get more than an inch of snow and its looking like a good amount

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:12:51 GMT

Heavysnow, the models might say that now, but I bet you anything, come tomorrow, that will all change and it will be north of I-70. Heck, that track might not change til the last minute.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:14:06 GMT

one inch of snow for kc the snow track will go north thats my prediction

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:15:46 GMT

I guess it is obvious that I don't see a big snow for south KC nor do I want one...The weather today is so awsome!! If only it would stay this way, wow!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

LVStormSpotter — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:17:42 GMT

Weather team, how far east do u think the heavy snow has the potential to fall?

Any chance in Columbia?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

radman22 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:17:46 GMT

I am suprised (maybe not) that the NWS has not issued a WSW for the metro. They seem to be pretty slow to react to the model changes. I would think they would give people a heads up for something 24hrs away. They could always then make it a snow or winter weather advisory if it is not too major. Last week they had the warnings out and we knew we would not get much.

No matter what happens the last 10 days have been a wild ride and we got a taste of everything. This may be our last shot for a good snowstorm, so lets hope it all comes togeather to put us all in the zone.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Hushpook — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:24:01 GMT

Looks like that cold front is on the move. Chadron NE....north western part of the state....24 at dawn, 14 now.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Nick Rau — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:25:03 GMT

The visible sat. loop of the region is very impressive showing how close we came to getting out of the low clouds and fog here in St. Joe, the fog has lifted but the clouds are hanging strong, it also shows how the low clouds are surging south in Neb. into north central Ks. Talk about two different worlds, 43 here and 67 in K.C. By the way congrats to Brett on the Polar Bear Plunge!!! Definitely was not a warm day on the beach, as his wardrobe would have suggested!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:26:05 GMT

WOW Definitely a temperature contrast between KC and St. Joe! It's 67 in KC and 43 in St. Joe.

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Luthur — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:27:25 GMT

"This may be our last shot for a good snowstorm,"

Um, it's the fourth day of February.

--

I'd be shocked if we got more than 2 inches.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

spaceotteradam — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:27:39 GMT

I like your enthusiasim Brent! Always in for the biggest forcast :) lol

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:30:32 GMT

There is obviously something the weather service sees that we dont, or they would put out a winter storm watch for KC

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

adogg — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:31:30 GMT

A foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I so hope so

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

nastyweather — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:33:34 GMT

I'm not sure if I want the NWS to issue a WSW for JoCo, because that seems to be the kiss of death for a good snowstorm. However, Gary appears to be excited about this storm and he wasn't last time, so that makes me feel more confident about things.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

radman22 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:34:19 GMT

"Um, it's the fourth day of February"

Have you looked at the long range temps. The inactive period of the LRC is about on us and we should see a surge in the temps for the last part of Feb.

We may get a suprise in March, when the active part of the cycle starts up again, but it will have to battle the warmth as well.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:35:05 GMT

I wouldn't worry about the weather service! They were calling for large amounts last storm, and we got .......... you geussed it nothing. So this time they are calling for it to go north and we will get .............................................................
.......................................................................................................
to be continued

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

weatherguru5 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:38:31 GMT

Whats the latest?? Still only a 60% chance I see... Are we in for a major storm or will we be disappionted like last week?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

pvt_murphy — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:40:30 GMT

people, the only reason why there are weather advisories to the NW of us is because they are basing their forecast on the 00z runs. and on those runs, the main emphasis for bad weather was NW of us. things will change by the time the new 00z runs are out. i have a better feeling about this storm for if anything-than the fact that the qpf is much, much better. not to mention it looks like there could be convection with this one...

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Hushpook — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:41:20 GMT

Maybe the weather service is gun shy, after being so aggressive with the Winter Storm Warning last week.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:43:33 GMT

weatherguru5, we must wait for the next model runs before anything can be said. Just like last week if they are going to change, it will be on the next model run.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:44:06 GMT

murphy when do the ew runs come out?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

mbmeek — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:45:03 GMT

I will be shocked if any part of the metro picks up 3+ inches from this storm. It's way to early, and WAY to many things can and will go wrong. I have a new personal policy of not believing a snow forecast until I see heavy radar echos directly over my neighborhood and I look outside and confirm that it is reaching the ground.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

weatherjaded — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:45:48 GMT

The next model runs are at 4pm is that correct?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Luthur — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:46:17 GMT

Or maybe the NWS knows what they are doing. Or,perhaps pvtmurphy is correct. Time will tell. When do the 00z runs come out?

--

Radman - Wasn't trying to be mean. It just seems to be a bit early in the year to call off snow.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:46:46 GMT

i hear that mb, thats why i am calling bs, Kc dont get snows like that anymore

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Bryan — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:48:26 GMT

per the 1PM hazardous weather outlook they will issue no watches with the afternoon package.

Bryan

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Bryan — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:49:00 GMT

I meant to say new...not no

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

RickMckc — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:50:27 GMT

The track on the NAM looks wonderful (for us snow lovers) ... but it is very, very rare climatologically-speaking. I've lived in KC for 20 years and that track has happened maybe 3 times that I am aware of. But, here's hoping!

On the link posted above:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

Check out the amounts in northern IL!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:51:06 GMT

what does that mean bryan

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Brett34 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:53:14 GMT

Pay attention to LJB weather service "LezakJeremyBrett" weather service, its much more accurate. It would be sweet if that band set up where they are thinking, it will change probably, lets just hope right now!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

pvt_murphy — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:53:32 GMT

the nam comes out in about 2 hours, the gfs, about 3. because of the timing, i wouldnt expect any advisories until the night shift. maybe a winter weather advisory at the most for now(unless if they feel the 06z and 12z is enough to warrant a WSW). once the 00z models come out(2030 for nam, 2130 for gfs) you will likely see your WSW posted.

something to keep in mind though...it looks like it may get quite windy during a good part of the storm. if winds can get gusty, a blizzard watch/warning is possible given the anticpated duration of the event. however, since 35mph is the threshold for a blizzard, i imagine we will have a blowing snow advisory instead.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:53:52 GMT

Looks like new watches will be issued later today to include KC according to the latest NWS hazardous outlook.

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Sheree — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:58:19 GMT

I'm still feeling the burn from last Thursday. I can't get excited about any amounts being predicted - feels like it will all be rain, with maybe a 1/4 inch of snow at the end. I thought the Giants would win last night but hope I'm wrong about the no snow tomorrow!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:58:35 GMT

This storm I think is going to be tricky because it is actualy several peices. Not just one big ball of energy. That could throw off how this storm comes together.That is making it hard to forecast. Just my thought. I have already dropped a degree here in Lenexa.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Teamster83 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:00:21 GMT

sure does kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:04:50 GMT

NAM ROLLING OUT AS WE SPEAK! Stay tunned for more info!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

KSCityKitty — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:07:01 GMT

I will not be holding my breath.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:08:25 GMT

You may be correct time will tell.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

CentralOP2 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:12:16 GMT

Let's see:
Heavy Precip potential on 12Z NAM
Heavy Precip potential on 12Z GFS

Both models say this 36-42 hours in ADVANCE
NWS will likely issue a WSW for the metro area this afternoon based on the NAM and GFS.
The cold air is not far away at all.
These warm days are very annoying this time of year so enjoy today.
I will hold out hope that we actually get SOME snow this time.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:13:19 GMT

Still think we get no more than an inch!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Heymom — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:14:32 GMT

Plus 70 in Harrisonville. As much as I'd like a big snow event I will not anticipate it this year. I'm tired of getting skunked, but more tired of allowing my hopes to be built up. If this storm is anything like the storms in Dec., we will get moisture but lack the proper temps. for anything but rain.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:16:34 GMT

Braysmama, I with you on that thought! But wow! isn't today wonderful? Just makes me anxious for spring!!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

twister11 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:17:47 GMT

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_036.shtml
New NAM model, the heaviest band is to the southeast, and east of Kansas City

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:18:56 GMT

As of right now on the NAM its showing the REALLY HEAVY PRECIP. just to the east of I-35 north to south, but its JUST now getting into day 2 so we will see. The GFS usually comes out 1 hr after the NAM so we will see.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:20:01 GMT

why does the NWS graphical chart still show the heavy snow and precip north of here?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

radman22 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:20:03 GMT

I did not take your comment as being mean Luthur. I just have a gut feeling this is our last shot at a 4-8" snow. I know it is way to early to make that prediction, but I really feel February will be much warmer, with cold spells.

Too many near misses for me this year! We better get 3" out of this storm or I follow the groundhog and go hybernate till spring.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

f00dl3 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:22:06 GMT

If it's not North of Kansas City it has to be South of Kansas City.

I hereby enact Weather Law #20080204a

Winter Storms must track either North or South of Kansas City, and leave most portions of the metro with less than 3" of snow.

Effective immediately.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

radman22 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:23:23 GMT

Officially in a WSW

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

bellgolf08 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:23:25 GMT

could we be seeing what happened last week where it shifted south?

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:23:49 GMT

Well, It still is showing most areas getting at least 6 inches. I will wait for the GFS and see what it thinks and take the middle between the two.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:25:49 GMT

74.2 in Kingsville....and as for the snow...I"ll believe it when I see it. ;)

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

shawn67 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:26:15 GMT

winter storm watch now in effect for viewing area

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kellyann — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:26:32 GMT

so now KC and south is in a watch, lol

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Scott — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:26:56 GMT

I can't remember the last time so early in the season I saw these types of dewpoints...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_dew_iowl.gif

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Fire Dog — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:27:57 GMT

AND the NAM is showing snow for at least 5 frames!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:28:05 GMT

Yeah-weather watch equals no snow.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

nastyweather — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:29:25 GMT

Well the 48 hour gives us a lot of hope. There is a ton of moisture for this storm. We're right on the edge of this thing and these maps are never accurate on location. Anyway, someone's getting a whole bunch of snow.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_048l.gif

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

RodB — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:29:38 GMT

I second the motion on Weather Law #20080204a. All in favor say I.

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

bellgolf08 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:31:12 GMT

of course pettis is left out of the watch! just my luck lol

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:32:44 GMT

I am going to get up early tomorrow to go vote!

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

twister11 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:34:23 GMT

lol Kristi, That is probabaly the smartest thing to do!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:34:39 GMT

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:34:43 GMT

It's pretty warm out there, Scott, for this time of year. It's too early to see those kind of dewpoints.

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Braysmama — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:36:31 GMT

Thought about getting the four wheel drive full, nah, no need to.:)

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

MelissaLG — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:36:59 GMT

New Blog!

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:37:10 GMT

Just in case, it is bad in the afternoon.

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:37:52 GMT

No one has said the horrible word yet. Let me be the fist.
If you are going to inact Weather Law #20080204a I suggest I write it. It would be very simple to write. Here is a preview.

Weather Law #20080204a.

1. DOME
2. DOME

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:41:50 GMT

It should be forbidden to type the following words "dome" and "dryslot" in this blog. :)

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Jayhawk — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:41:58 GMT

Hasn't the NAM been wrong all season? It's not a DOME, it's the Tonganoxie split, as one of my favorite retired weatherman, Dan Henry, use to call it.

Don

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

simplykristi — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:51:27 GMT

The NAM has usually been way off.

Kristi

re: Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

kane1970 — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:53:56 GMT

New blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!