The first week of June weather begins

re: The first week of June weather begins

adogg — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:18:54 GMT

Wow, this is looking like a very active week Gary! So are the models still consistent in showing a major outbreak thursday?

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No, there is no consistency at all. So, as usual, let's wait and see how it sets up.

Gary

re: The first week of June weather begins

simplykristi — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:27:46 GMT

Hi Gary,
What a neat pic of cancer survivors! I want to be there next year with my parents. :) My aunt has a survivor's dinner in Lawrence tonight. :)

I am with you, Gary... I am taking a wait and see attitude.

Kristi

re: The first week of June weather begins

jimmymac — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:57:39 GMT

Gary, just a friendly question. Why do wait until after the 10:30 p.m. newscast (if at all) to update your seven-day forecast on the website? Most folks are going to watch your weathercast anyway because we want to see the graphics and hear your explanations. It is especially frustrating when you hurry through your segment and the seven-day is only up a few seconds, or you stand in front of it. I definitely prefer the late afternoon update on the website.

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We are still having troubles with out computer that transfers our forecasts to the web. This should finally be resolved this week. This is why you are seeing the delays.

Gary

re: The first week of June weather begins

5kckmartins — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:09:42 GMT

Jeri,
I'm referring to last blog...you are too funny...

i'm not going to worry bout Thurs either... if mother nature wants me, she'll have to evade me. LMAO ya riight...

re: The first week of June weather begins

JeriCorrell — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:17:25 GMT

Hmmm, wonder if the single neighbor has a basement? <wicked grin, raising eyebrows>

re: The first week of June weather begins

f00dl3 — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:21:30 GMT

Watch this whole thing fizzle out... lol just checked NAM and GFS runs and they have us in less than 1 inch of rain for the longest out they go.

re: The first week of June weather begins

chieffan07 — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:39:46 GMT

Hey simplykristi, I just read your reply to my question on the last blog. I just got a weather radio but I was just hoping I wouldn't have to worry about it tonight. But hopefully the storms will hold off until late morning, if they even happen at all.

Thanks again.

re: The first week of June weather begins

adogg — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:50:26 GMT

whoaa, jeri, I have a feeling this conversation may become innapropriate for this blog!hahaha J/k : (( )) Thats my new smiley face, I call it the Mick Jagger Smiley

re: The first week of June weather begins

simplykristi — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 23:56:06 GMT

Chieffan,
I think that you don't have anything to worry about overnight. Gad that you have a weather radio. :) That will help you plan for things in case the weather gets bad.

Kristi

re: The first week of June weather begins

pvt_murphy — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:00:11 GMT

at this point im sure its a pretty safe assumption that there will be a decent chance of storms with any frontal passage.

to tell you the truth, i am amazed by the flood warning for my county(leavenworth). yes the river is pretty high...but we have been getting passed over in regards to rain since early april here. we have had exactly one severe storm all season(the bow echo night), and no hail at all.

--------------

Pvt Murphy,

Yes, this spring has been a strange one.

Gary

re: The first week of June weather begins

juniorfan32 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:12:42 GMT

I agree pvt murphy, I live in Tonganoxie and we have been spared too. I am having to water already. We have had one minimally severe storm. I am not even getting worked up about Thursday, probably won't materialize.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:51:06 GMT

I sure didn't get sleep last night. The weather radio kept going off all night. I finally crashed at 3 am. I hope tonight is not the same but I fear it will be.

I think we're having a severe storm every day. One went thru at noon today. Last night there were tornados all around. I can't wait til June 15 when Gary says it will calm down.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:53:14 GMT

I know you all get bummed when the weather passes you by. We had something like 13+ inches of rain for May. I wish I could send you some of our 'excitement'.

re: The first week of June weather begins

kurt — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 01:20:10 GMT

I am ready for some of the 13 inches of rain spread out over several weeks. I have had to water all weekend. We have missed most of the storms all May and were just barely above average for the month. It's hard to believe all this flooding and severe weather around, because it hasn't materialized near St. Joseph.

re: The first week of June weather begins

juniorfan32 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:03:48 GMT

Lorie I don't care about excitement,just want some rain. You guys have had it all. We have had nothing. sorry about all the severe stuff though

re: The first week of June weather begins

davidmcg — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:15:15 GMT

Good show about chasing on KTWU Chan 11 Topeka for those really interested in weather.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Nick Rau — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:34:15 GMT

The storms in Neb. and South Dakota are just moving in crazy directions, why? Because they are milling about thinking about a way to roll down into this region and only graze the St. Joe area, if that and then gather over SW Missouri again, this has been a GREAT LRC this winter but as we move into the Summer I'm beginning to wonder.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:46:16 GMT

No Rick, not SW Missouri. Please, No, not that.

They are really downplaying the really severe weather for us tonight and this next week. Usually they say "severe storms with a possibility for tornados" but they're just saying "possible severe storms". They still want spotter's so I'm wondering if it's really *just* severe and not tornados or are they trying to shelter us from stress. And what exactly is a "severe storm"? I really forgot. I don't know how to disassociate "severe storms" from tornados.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:50:23 GMT

Oops, I meant Nick.

re: The first week of June weather begins

John Moon III _Weather Enthusiast_ — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:53:49 GMT

SPC AC 011722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AS A 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
MOVES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE JET MAX WILL SPREAD A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLATTE AND MID-MO RIVER VALLEYS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD AND NEB LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN MCS
DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS NRN MO...NE KS AND SRN IA MONDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND THIS WILL BACK FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
KS...ERN NEB...IA AND MO. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WLY FLOW
ALOFT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CREATE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A WELL-FOCUSED 40 TO
50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. 00Z TUESDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR LINCOLN NEB SHOW 0-1
KM HELICITIES AROUND 250 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT AND DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS. AS THE MCS ORGANIZES MONDAY EVENING AND MOVES SEWD INTO
NRN MO AND SRN IA...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE. AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IF A LARGE-SCALE
BOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET CAN RIDE
ESEWD DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

re: The first week of June weather begins

John Moon III _Weather Enthusiast_ — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:56:46 GMT

The Relay for life went really well, it was nice for the event after 8 pm or so.
Very interesting setups are unfolding for this week, that is for sure.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Matt P — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:01:21 GMT

Chieffan07, just get your radio adjusted, turn it on, and leave it on at all times. You never know when you may need it. Rather than worry about when it should be turned on, if you leave it on at all times, you'll have it on on the one time you need it.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:12:52 GMT

Except that it sounds off for everything and I mean everything. I wish I could have my weather radio skip the flood statements since that doesn't really concern me. And I wish the weather radio would do partial counties. We're close to 4 counties but I don't need to know stuff northeast or southeast of me ~ at least not in the middle of the night.

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:14:14 GMT

Glad the Relay for Life went well. I used to have a team at ours every year but it was in August.

re: The first week of June weather begins

5kckmartins — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:17:40 GMT

Lorie, I think it would be a good idea to leave those counties in.. extra added caution.. ya know for us chickens ;) j/k.

I'm getting redi to pull up my manual again and get all the counties entered for the next couple days.. then re program it once we figure out where we're camping for the night..

re: The first week of June weather begins

simplykristi — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:31:02 GMT

Lorie,
Does your weather radio have SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) technology? You can program whatever counties you want. I just leave mine as is. I am too lazy to plug the codes. :) Besides I like to know what is going around me even if it is off to my east.

Kristi

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:36:25 GMT

Yeah, I plugged in just Jasper County to the SAME. I wonder if it would narrow it down if i went back to default.

I may sign up for our local stations severe weather alert by phone. I think it's $7 a year, you can add multiple phone numbers, and it's GPS coordinated to your home. So it only calls if the alert is going to cover that GPS.

re: The first week of June weather begins

5kckmartins — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:39:15 GMT

Kristi...
HELP
Hand held weather radio.. is it supposed to be flashing to show alerts? This manual has me confused..

re: The first week of June weather begins

briantchr — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:40:12 GMT

I have not commented for a LOOOOONG while...with school ending etc...time just tends to get away from the best of us.

Since winter proved to be good for us in St. Joseph, I think the Rain bubble is around us and down south it has been lifted. We have only had one severe weather outbreak where a tornado touched down the street from the school I teach at and that is it. We have not had a decent rain for awhile it seems like, but KS and SW MO have been getting pounded. Any signs of this changing?

I look forward to a cool summer and not that intense heat like last year. UGH! Makes the start of school unbearable!

Have a great week!
Brian in St. Joseph

re: The first week of June weather begins

Lorie in SW MO — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:43:49 GMT

Chat with you all tomorrow. Possible severe storms by 4 am so I'm going to try to get some sleep before hand. Hopefully, it'll be alot of fluff.

re: The first week of June weather begins

simplykristi — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:45:09 GMT

If it is Midland, I can try to help you, Stacy. That is what I have.

Kristi

re: The first week of June weather begins

5kckmartins — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:45:58 GMT

Crossing fingers for ya Lorie. Rest well..

re: The first week of June weather begins

simplykristi — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:46:14 GMT

Lorie,
I would plug in some counties to your SW, west, and NW. It would give you some lead time on severe weather.

Have a great night!

Kristi

re: The first week of June weather begins

LVStormSpotter — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:47:41 GMT

chasing tomorrow, hopefully it turns out well. Then again on Wednesday.

What are your thoughts on tomorrow? Nebraska?

re: The first week of June weather begins

LVStormSpotter — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:53:38 GMT

*Meant Thursday, not Wednesday

re: The first week of June weather begins

chieffan07 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 04:31:45 GMT

Are we now expecting severe storms by 4am? Just wondering after reading Lorie's comment. Or am I misunderstanding?

Thanks

re: The first week of June weather begins

Emmysmom — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 04:36:08 GMT

So going to the Power & Light District Tuesday night is probably not going to be possible? Our neice is in town for a few days and Tuesday is possibly our only chance to take her down there.

re: The first week of June weather begins

auroramama — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:22:03 GMT

Husband and I spent the day at Gay Pride Fest downtown today with our dog rescue booth. Was fun like it is every year, maybe one of these days it will get to get some news coverage too. Except I forgot my sunscreen. :(

I'm so mad to hear that the severe weather threat has moved to Tuesday. It is my sons big "CARS" rating scale diagnosis test day at KU Med and now I'm nervous about weather. Does it still look like Tuesday is shaping up to be a bad day or is it an evening threat, does anyone know??

re: The first week of June weather begins

weatherfreak01 — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:41:08 GMT

Auroramama,
I just looked and K.C is well covered in red for Tuesday. So if you live anywhere near or SE of Kansas City, Tuesday might be bumpy. But that could all change, we have seen that happen time and time again. Good luck with your son's test!

re: The first week of June weather begins

auroramama — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:48:23 GMT

Oh I hope it changes! Thanks for telling me and for the well wishes. I looked at the convective outlook maps and it still looks like Thursday will be quite an interesting day.

re: The first week of June weather begins

John Moon III _Weather Enthusiast_ — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 06:17:44 GMT

SPC AC 020602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY AS IT
TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE U.S. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC NW SYSTEM...AND
GREATEST FALLS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER ERN CO
WITHIN A LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO NRN/ERN KS. A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER OK AT 12Z TODAY WILL
LIFT NWD AND SHOULD EXTEND EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER INTO ERN KS
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO SD/NEB TO SRN MN/IA/NRN MO...
A CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
SD/NEB AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY. REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM THESE EARLY MORNING
TSTMS MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN
PARTS OF SD/NEB...AND THE RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER W...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN NEB/SD INTO THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES
ACROSS NWRN KS INTO WRN NEB SHOULD RANGE FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.

SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMANATING ENEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY WITHIN LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TSTMS.

TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN OR MOVING EWD INTO THE VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT...OWING TO 50+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN EXISTENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE
OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL /SOME VERY LARGE/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
IF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FARTHER EWD INTO ERN NEB WITH
GREATER TSTM COVERAGE...THEN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY REQUIRE
AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

00Z NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE A VERY STRONG SLY LLJ /60+ KT/ DEVELOPING
OVER OK INTO KS THIS EVENING...AND VEERING TO SWLY TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OVER NEB/SD TO
MN/LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS/S
TRACKING EWD FROM SD/NEB. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S.

...ERN KS THROUGH LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE
AIDING AN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX/MCS ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB AT 12Z
TODAY. THIS IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SE REACHING THE
OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS ACCOMPANYING THIS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS AT LEAST ERN KS/MO
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SD/NEB MORNING MCS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND
E OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO...WITH WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS
REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON.

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