Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

GaryB — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:22:36 GMT

Excellent blog entry, Gary.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

Ross — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:25:38 GMT

Wow...check out those wind speeds up North.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

MelissaLG — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:27:28 GMT

I should probably know this from reading the blog for so long, but what is a meso discussion??

Thanks!

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

Jenn6428 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:34:50 GMT

Can someone please remind me what a microburst is?

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

HummerSeeker — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:43:15 GMT

I think a microburst is "sort of" like a tornado - but it goes straight down, destroys and goes straight back up. I may be wrong - but it's sort of like that! (Not a technical definition I know . . . ) I also don't think that they can warn and do sirens and things for microbursts -t hey just happen and are gone.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

KansasPatriot — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:45:09 GMT

Wow check out the storms to our north..

Storm hits Iowa with 100 mph wind, causes blackout

Jul 21 01:34 PM US/Eastern
By MELANIE S. WELTE
Associated Press Writer 6 Comments

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - A line of thunderstorms battered Iowa with winds of up to 100 mph early Monday, knocking down trees and power lines and blacking out more than 200,000 homes and businesses.
No injuries were reported, and there were only a few reports of structural damage, including a roof torn off a small building at the state prison for women in Mitchellville near Des Moines.

The storms didn't produce a lot of rain, but a wind speed of 100 mph was reported at Dawson, a town of some 150 people about 30 miles northwest of Des Moines, the National Weather Service said.

By late Monday morning the storm system had crossed Illinois into Indiana, where the weather service posted severe thunderstorm warning for northern counties.

In Iowa, about 177,000 customers of MidAmerican Energy were without power from Sioux City on the state's western edge to the Davenport area on the east.

"It started about midnight in Sioux City. One of the unique things about this storm was that it never really broke up. It just moved across our entire service territory," said Ann Thelen, spokeswoman for MidAmerican Energy.

Thelen said the major problem was "an enormous number" of trees on power lines. She said she had no idea yet how long it would take to restore service.

Iowa's other large utility company, Alliant Energy, reported 31,000 customers without power.

Power outages in Des Moines shut down traffic lights, snarling the morning commute. Police posted signs or directed traffic at the busiest intersections.

At the women's prison, part of the roof hit cars in a parking lot but no one was hurt, said Fred Scaletta, spokesman for the Iowa Department of Corrections. He said the building houses a voluntary clothing donation center for inmates who are leaving prison.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D922CIR80&show_article=1

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

jstonemo — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:48:20 GMT

A microburst from my understanding is a massive downdraft from a dying thunderstorm. The cold sinking air drops out of the storm straight down and spreads out in all directions. I think they can be very strong winds and cause major damage like a tornado but there is no "path" of damage. Raintree Lake was hit by a strong microburst a few years ago.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

Teamster83 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:48:45 GMT

i think there like straight line winds not twisting winds like a tornado

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

LSGolfer — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:57:50 GMT

Jenn6428:

Here is a good link for information on a microburst:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microburst

Jason

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

sedsinkc — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:04:40 GMT

Gary, you should have posed the question about what's wrong with the map from the meso discussion to the bloggers and see who noticed it first, lol. The SPC is in Norman, like OU, but perhaps the meteorologist who put the MD together didn't graduate from OU, lol!

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

sedsinkc — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:08:30 GMT

Good thing oil dropped from $145/bbl to below $130 before Dolly formed. Oil prices today rose to over $131 on concerns about Dolly, predominantly.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

Mark M — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:16:23 GMT

The new set looks nice. Are they primarily putting together the background right now? I didn't realize the set would come in pieces to put together like a puzzle. Cool.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

dougbce — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:21:40 GMT

The SPC has put northern Missouri and central Illinois into a Moderate Risk for this evening.

re: Meso Discussion from the SPC

kcwxguy — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:57:15 GMT

Amusing. Having been corrected on my synoptic drawings, I am glad someone else gets it this time.

Ross, the "wind speeds" you mention is what is representing the effective bulk sheer. These values shown above are not overly strong, but are a bit high for this time of year.

Normally as the vorticity is stronger earlier in the year with a more interactive jet, there are times you may see Eff bulk sheer with values of 70+ kts. All the same, these values above are plenty good for supercell development and with the very strong instability..I can see the need for these to be watched.

Gary - any thoughts on where the purple horseshoes, red balloons, or blue moons would go on the drawing?

Your statement of ["The red half circles, and the blue cold front triangles should be the other way around on that stationary or backdoor front"] made me think of Lucky Charms...

LMAO

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

chieffan07 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:20:40 GMT

Hello. What are are chances for severe thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday morning? I see that there has been a severe thunderstorm watch posted to the north and east of here until midnight, should we expect that watch to be extended into the metro area after 12:00?

Thank you

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:23:48 GMT

Good catch on the MD map.

While we're correcting graphics - gotta admit that your temperature contours have left a bit to be desired lately...I just saw a current temps map that showed places with the same temps (Kirksville and the Ozarks) but with different colors... and that seems to happen very frequently that the colors don't match the temperature/gradients very well. Is that automated or do you do those on your own?

I bet your synoptic prof would rib you for that one!

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

Bandito — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:30:51 GMT

I was living in Lawrence when the microburst hit a few years ago. It was interesting because we had really strong winds go in one direction. Then they shifted and went really hard the other direction. I then saw a large debris field hit a power line causing the line to arc. That's when I thought it was a tornado. I also was amazed by the clouds, they were flowing downward almost like a water fall. It was super freaky.

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

Matt P — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:32:16 GMT

Chieffan07, if a watch is posted for the metro, it would probably be before midnight. Normally, the watch will be issues progressively, not as a finite time for certain areas. I hope that makes sense.

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

Dwxtracker — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:33:37 GMT

A thunderstorm has formed over the middle of Jackson county. Time for a new blog? :)

David

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

A dogg — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:35:39 GMT

I was in Branson once when a mircoburst hit. We were staying at the coleman resort on indian point, and we thought for sure it was aa tornado!! The next morning we helped the owners clean up. Their sign was ripped to shreds, one piece missed our car by like a foot, shingles everywhere, trees uprooted, all trhe billboards around the area were shredded, it was a mess!

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

chieffan07 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:37:55 GMT

Thanks Matt. That makes sense. I was just trying to figure out how late we should expect the threat for severe weather.

Thanks again

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

jonkleinow — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:47:33 GMT

Why is it that St. Louis is under a heat advisory and we aren't, even though temps are slightly higher here than they are in St. Louis?

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

Alden — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:52:01 GMT

Can you post the time lapse online?

--------------------

Alden,

Between tonight and tomorrow I will try to get your request done. I will get today's and tomorrow's time-lapse and do a little segment for the web.

Gary

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

Dwight — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:56:03 GMT

come on. thunderstorms are forming over Jackson county, NOT NE Kansas. Can we get some new information on the blog?

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

juba — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:22:09 GMT

So should i expect morning dew?

When would be the best time for me to turn on the mower tonight, it has to be tonight. It can't be 7:00, my sprinklers will turn on! Hope you can help!

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

juba — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:22:27 GMT

So should i expect morning dew?

When would be the best time for me to turn on the mower tonight, it has to be tonight. It can't be 7:00, my sprinklers will turn on! Hope you can help!

re: Upated at 5 PM....Meso Discussion

auroramama — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:23:38 GMT

A dogg, was your experience in Branson in about 2003? I used to live on Indian Point and had gone out to Wal-Mart late to get worms (night fishing). I heard a sound while driving like a train coming and had to pull over and lay in a ditch. By then husband almost got hit in the head by a flying piece of fence. That experience to this day is why I'm scared of tornados! I never did hear for sure if that was a microburst or a tornado...it was very scary for sure though.

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

Alden — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:37:42 GMT

Thanks Gary

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

mattwalker — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:40:33 GMT

gary im headed to the royals game tonight is it going to rain? what is the difference between a microburst and mesa?

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

stjoelawyer — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:23:11 GMT

well the watch is just to my north and the t-storm west of here in northcentral KS is just setting there. will it pull in a lot of the heat and humidity before it colapses and create an out flow boundry? Could the outflow boundry wipe out the chance of strong or severe weather by settling things down and raining out only with no severe weather?

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

JeriCorrell — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:43:20 GMT

Absolutely beautiful huge cumulus starting to anvil out off to my east , from my deck facing Lenexa.

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

Lizbaugh — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:44:03 GMT

I was just out in my Jeep...of course there were showers in Lee's Summit!! The one time I choose to take the top off my Jeep it has to rain and thunder!! Go figure!

**I am glad it cooled down a few degrees!!

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

Randy Cooper — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:02:25 GMT

come on gary. theres a tornado warning for northeastern grundy county and your not gonna cut in? whats up with that? not trying to be disrespectful or anything but the public should know.

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

emcat — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:10:51 GMT

New blog

re: Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

bewild79 — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 01:13:22 GMT

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THRU CNTRL/S CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 220100Z - 220230Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 PRIOR
TO 03Z.

WHILE AREA OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION MAY SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/
INDIANA THIS EVENING...FORCING ALONG A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS MAY BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 BY
02-03Z...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS/COLUMBIA...POSSIBLY KANSAS
CITY...AREAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. WHILE...INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS
EXTREME AS NOW PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI... THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A CURRENTLY EVOLVING LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.

..KERR.. 07/22/2008