Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

macnkc — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:28:14 GMT

No complaints here Gary. Yeah, we need the rain but not a washout of the weekend. I think we are doing ok, in parts of KCK anyway. I have been mowing every 3-4 days since May and my lawn is still green with no help from me. As for the critics' at least you attempt a forecast and make changes. Others like to issue generic forecasts ("chance of rain today") and then boldy make a prediction when the system is on top of us.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

pvt_murphy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:28:53 GMT

the discussion from the NWS seems to be coming to fruition at this point... once again its too early to know for sure, but i think we will get several hours of rain beyond today-i just dont think it will amount to a lot...showery:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/312 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008/

SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE STRONGER WAVE IN WYOMING IS OF MORE INTEREST. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER ON A SOLUTION OF HAVING A ONE TWO PUNCH FOR THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEADING WYOMING
WAVE DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT IS KICKED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A MUCH
MORE WOUND UP SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTH AND CUT
OFF OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO...WHILE THE INITIAL
WAVE...LOSING ANY PUSH FROM THE MORE WESTERN WAVE...CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES FROM WYOMING INTO
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...EXPECTING A WARM FRONT TO SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI FEEDING BACK TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS TOWARD 06Z
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE WAVE SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS
WITH A WARM FRONT BISECTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAINING EFFECT OF THE
RAIN...PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SETTING UP...WITH THE MORE LIKELY REGION BEING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST JOSEPH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ON FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN BAND MAY ROTATE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS
THE UPPER WAVE BECOMES CUT OFF...AND THE SURFACE WAVE TAKES ON A
MORE INVERTED TROUGH LOOK TO IT. THUS THINK A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL
PRODUCE REPEATED ROUNDS OVER THE SAME AREA...OR SHIFT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FLOODING FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM. WILL NOT POST ANY KIND OF
A WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS IS STILL OVER 24 HOURS OUT...AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OF EXACTLY WHAT AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED.

THIS CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL AND
WEAKEN AS THE STRONGER WESTERN WAVE OVER COLORADO SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT WITH THIS KANSAS CUTOFF REMAINING
IN THE REGION...PERIODS OF AT LEAST LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED
TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WARMER AIR AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH THIS PATTERN...AS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
THE SECOND PART OF THIS ONE TWO PUNCH AS THE COLORADO WAVE SLOWLY
EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A VERY WET PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE AFFECTING THE CWFA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

what do you think, gary?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Ronnie — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:30:15 GMT

I think we need some new models.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

pvt_murphy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:36:56 GMT

btw scott,

i know you hate the NAM...and i dont blame you. the NAM really hurt my feelings last fall with the first potential ice storm that ended up being further north....errr. not that i wanted an ice storm, but i wanted to be right....and i wasnt.

but, i have found that the NAM performs rather well in the fall time, and spring time for that matter. it seems to do well with transitions. and like gary said, its good for short term trending as well...but i like it for the fall especially.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Stormdog — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:38:17 GMT

Stormdog - Okay, with models "all over the place" how do we buy the "latest solution" with such certainty. The initialization of the last GFS run (which according to some, hasn't performed brilliantly lately in any case) has the upper low just crossing into Montana, then Swd essentially into Colorado before dying out - it really doesn't show much of a southwestward trend at all, if one wants to buy any models solution anyway. And where was this disturbance spinning by today in the models - no one really forecast rain for today - it was Friday. Bottom line I think is, throw out the computer models and look out the window.

Beyond the next day, they are useless, or worse than useless right now - back and forth, and it's just as useful to hang chicken entrails up in your door - if the blood doesn't congeal and runs down the carcass, then it's raining, if it congeals it is not.

Now THAT'S A FORECAST YOU (OR ANYONE) CAN REMEMBER!!!

Later,
Dog

---------------

Dog,

Experience! We have always wondered, but not anymore. The models have been all over the place, but now this solution is correct. Dry this weekend.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

pvt_murphy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:44:32 GMT

wow dog...

...you got any spare entrails lying around?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

littleladybugs — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:47:14 GMT

ok you told me to ask again on thursday so here it goes:
my girls party is outside in a northland park in platte county is it going to rain saturday before 1pm???

please so no!!!

*************

I the moment I would say your party looks ok.

Jeremy

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:51:02 GMT

Murph, for short range, I will take the RUC over the NAM anyday. The RUC has not changed much in the last 5 runs.

Gary - I will take that perfect forecast for Sat to the bank. I will expect no rain in the viewing area.

Based on what I see, I see the ULL in Colorado trying to "reach out" if you will to troughing from the NE. You can see that on the link below.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa5_p500mb+am+48

This would cause two things to happen. One, it would set up a boundary layer between the cool dry northern air you describe, and the southern moist air. It would also create a point of focus.

This is mentioned above in the NWS discussion..

The second is I see the vorticity wanting to stretch out a bit through the boundary layer. If so, this would allow each day to have rain chances as each little piece of energy that goes through the path to bring small complexes of storms.

No doubt this storm is tricky..but think the major models have made many look flip floppy right now.

-----------------

Scott,

And when it is nice on Saturday, I expect to hear back from you!

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:09:47 GMT

eww, gross Dog! Why waste chicken entrails on weather predicting when they are much better used to catch fish! :-)
audra

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:14:05 GMT

The over for .02 has confirmed. I will still take the over on 2 inches for somewhere in the viewing area through Wed.

;-)

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

bewild79 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:15:59 GMT

Ok so my hubby is in Rolla and planning to come home this weekend but he wants to ride the Harley....with all this flip flopping should I just tell him to drive?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

emcat — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:18:44 GMT

Getting a nice little rain in Greenwood.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

mamaof3girls — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:23:05 GMT

Good luck weather team..your feet are being held to fire on this one it sounds like. I am rooting for you, you are sticking with no rain this weekend no matter what....right?? Are the temps expected to rise any this weekend since rain is now out of the forecast? I was wanting to take the girls to the pool one last time this summer. There favorite pool closes on Sunday. Good luck!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:07 GMT

Gary, I am not saying that parts of the viewing area will not have a nice Saturday. I am saying that there will be a chance of rain as I don't see the high pressure getting here as quickly/strongly as you think.

If it does not rain anywhere in the viewing area on Saturday midnight to midnight, I will be the first to eat crow publically on this forum.

What will YOU do if it DOES rain somewhere in the viewing area on Saturday? LOL

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kvluvalcsens — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:07 GMT

Ok not to bother you guys but we are supposed to have soccer tonight in Lees Summit is that still going to happen?

***************

There will still be some showers around, hopefully they stay away from your area. You can play soccer in the rain right?

Jeremy

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Nick Rau — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:03:05 GMT

Getting some rain and thunder right now in St. Joe!!
I mowed the lawn yesterday, that was the impetus I believe!!

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

NotesInTheMargin — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:09:47 GMT

If we could have avatars or image signatures on this board, that team photo would be it.

That is all.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

simplykristi — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:47:06 GMT

I stayed up and watched the forecast at 1 AM.... Gary called for someone in the area to get six to seven inches over the next few days. It's not going to happen. The rain we got today will probably be the biggest event we get over the next week. I wouldn't change your outdoor events. If it rains, it will probably be nothing more than a brief shower. It won't be a washout.

BTW, I was down by Truman Lake this past weekend. Some friends of mine are building a house in Montrose. The building site had some rain but 26 miles to the ESE barely a sprinkle.

Kristi

----------------------

Kristi,

I meant 6 to 7 hundreths. Everything changed as you can see in my blog today.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kvluvalcsens — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 19:04:19 GMT

No, if it's raining we don't practice they girls are only 6yrs old and mine had been real sick so if it is raining I won't take her. there is a horrible virus that is going around that just wipes you out for days.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

bellgolfMU12 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 19:19:31 GMT

Gary its been raining pretty good in sedalia for bout 45 min. how long should it last. plus the temperature is absoultely amazing

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

DaveC — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:00:44 GMT

Gary said : The models have been all over the place, but now this solution is correct. Dry this weekend.

I'm not saying I don't believe you, but I'm not sure I understand why you have even more confidence in this latest model run then say last night, or the night before last. I understand we are getting closer to the "event", but even that in itself sometimes means little.

--------------------

The reason I am now much more confident is because there is no evidence of that second upper low forming. So, high pressure must take over at the surface, our dewpoints will drop and there will be almost no forcing for rain after Friday. So, This is why my confidence level is very high, finally. My lawn is not too happy about it though.

And, your confidence in our forecast will be growing too. Everything is now falling into place for the dry scenario.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

KansasPatriot — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:03:14 GMT

Is this weather pattern a hint that the possibility of a earlier than normal first snowfall?

I LOVE snow! Snow is very exciting, and when snow approaches im glued to the weather information sources more than ever.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

lezakEF5 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:29:27 GMT

Very cool here in Marceline.

Alex

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:30:43 GMT

Kristi...bold. I like it, while I disagree, I appreciate the firm stance.

LOL

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:40:25 GMT

Well the NWS lower the rain chances for me earlier today, now they are back up. Did the front change again?
Audra in Lee's Summit

--------------

Audra,

No, and I don't know when they will catch on, but it will be dry this weekend.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:45:27 GMT

In looking at Personal Weather Station data and at radar estimate rainfall amounts, it appears areas near Chillicothe have already recorded upwards of two inches of rain today.

Is Chillicothe in the viewing area? LOL

In looking at the new model data [why do I even look with this storm?], Sat looks much drier. I may start early eating crow early.

[I think there is enough crow all around for anyone else..LOL]

-------------

Scott,

This is why I said that our confidence level is high. It will be dry. And, it is amazing that those areas in Livingston county had nearly 2 inches of rain today, in our viewing area.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Brocksmama — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:58:20 GMT

I am sooo happy!! It is around 70˚ and it has been sprinkling/ raining here (68th Terr. and Oak ) for a couple of hours off and on!! I have around 1/10th of an inch in my rain gauge at the moment. I'm happy, my lawn is happy, and my flowers are happy! My dog is not happy. He does not like rain. Oh well, 3 out of 4 is not bad!! Lovin' this weather! Dea

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

radman22 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:15:10 GMT

I went with the under 2" So no crow for me :)

Gary nailed this before everyone else. Did some flip flopping, but everyone did with this storm. He is sticking to his guns now and if the metro gets more than 1" widespread from even 1 event, he will take the hit.

I am glad for a nice cool dry weekend. Go back and find another stretch like this in mid August. No way we would have 5-7 days like this!!!! Will we hit 90 again at KCI? LOL

------------------

Yes, I think we will hit 90 degrees. And, I can't even imagine 1 inch of rain in the next four days. Thanks for noticing the correct forecast change before everyone else. Are we right this time? YES! But, my lawn is still thirsty.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:21:29 GMT

Well the NWS says our rain chances are down again. I feel like a yo yo, going up and down, up and down..
Audra Goyette

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

sapper — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:23:34 GMT

I'm glad we're getting some rain. We put up a Davis weather station two weeks ago and haven't had any measurable precipitation since then. So far .12" of rain here in Higginsville MO.

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

weatherwunder — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:27:42 GMT

Oh, Gary, I have to hand it to you! You are the best meteorologist, and you are the most fantastic critter person. I so thoroughly enjoyed the video segment of Stormy, Breezy, and your two house guests. Congratulations on enjoying life so much---it’s contagious---I’m sitting at the computer with a big smile on my face!

That “rejuvenated” me this evening!

---------

I am so glad you enjoyed the segment with Breezy, Stormy, Stuey and Slick. I am showing it again tonight at midnight or 1 AM whenever we are on. It is just amazing watching Breezy and Stuey getting along so well.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

weatherwunder — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:41:04 GMT

Gary, another thought just occurred to me. How was the behaviour of the 4 of them in your car coming to the studio? You are also very brave!

By the way, we did get to enjoy a very nice kind of rain in Leavenworth this afternoon. Just my kind: easy-does-it kind of rain, no storminess, mild temperature. It's been a beautiful day!

--------

They ride well together in the car, but the video was done at my house! I just watched it again.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

juba — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:23:47 GMT

I was wishing it was sunny all day long, then right when my day was about to be ruined, the sun came out and My Family & I went out to Red Robin! Don't think it'll rain again though for a while anymore, has everything changed again?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

juba — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:24:28 GMT

Woops, we got .20" at Jhonson County Executive Airport today!

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Dwight — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:13:08 GMT

What about all the storms in Iowa moving sw and nebraska moving se. How can they all miss us?

-------

Some things are hard to explain, but there is no chance.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

pvt_murphy — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:02:34 GMT

currently sitting at a coolish 63 degrees here at the fort...may want to lower the projected low for KCI tonight...we have already hit it.

---------

Murph,

We were just outside. The low will likely dip into the 50s. Do you think dense fog will form?

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Randy Cooper — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:37:23 GMT

im getting a feeling of deja vu. those storms are just about to enter osceola, ia, just like last night moving soutward. i wouldnt be surprised at all to see them make it down here just like last night.

---------

Randy,

I won't ignore them tonight, I promise. But, they will likely fall apart soon. We will see.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

lezakEF5 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:44:44 GMT

Hey Gary, when you told Dwight there is no chance with the rain moving south in Iowa, are you talking about Kansas City. Is there a chance the rain may make far south enough to affect areas around Marceline to Chillicothe?

Thanks,

Alex

---------

Alex,

I wouldn't be surprised if it did make it close to you, but I still doubt it will.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

pvt_murphy — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:47:45 GMT

yes, 91% relative humidity. no doubt it should be foggy in the usual spots.

---------

Murph,

I just went outside and saw some low fog forming here, so there has to be patches at least by morning.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Randy Cooper — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:52:29 GMT

hey alex,
i dont know about gary, but im gonna say yes. the radar just looks exactly like it did last night. i predict we will get the cells around 2 or 3 this morning. they are only moving 25 to 30 mph.

Randy

-------

Randy,

Let's see if they make it across the Iowa border.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

KansasPatriot — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:58:58 GMT

I am going to wait up for the rain to hit...Do you guys see that cell in Iowa making a dash straight down I-35 heading S/SW?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

LRCfan — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:07:32 GMT

I was looking at the des moines radar shows nice outflow boundary with those storms might create some new storms in northern missouri at least!?!?!?

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Randy Cooper — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:11:55 GMT

outflow boundary just ahead of the storms in iowa!

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

radman22 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:12:23 GMT

You picked the wrong time to take your vacation Gary!!! You got another week of these late nights?

------------

I do get some time off in September and October.

Gary

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

kcwxguy — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:15:00 GMT

Vorticity pattern is much different tonight than last night.

Pvt, I thought upper 50s was plausible with this storm...looks like tonight is the night!

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

lezakEF5 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:27:24 GMT

Randy,
I agree, the radar does look very similar to last night, but lets do what Gary said, and wait to see if they make it across the border. I am still thinking they will make it down here, or very close. They are getting offly close to the border.

We'll see what happens.

Gary...BTW, my guage had 0.70 inches today.

Alex

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Randy Cooper — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:42:02 GMT

alex,
looks like its gonna split around us and the one to the west will head toward st joe / kansas city area if it holds together. we miss out this time. but thats ok with the rain we got last night and this morning here in chillicothe, we got probably around 4 inches possibly 4 and a half total rainfall the last 24 hours,

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

radman22 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:45:07 GMT

Those poor storms never had a chance

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

lezakEF5 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:49:02 GMT

Gary,
How much rain do you think will fall tonight out there in Western/Southwestern Kansas?

Looks pretty impressive out there.

Alex

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

lezakEF5 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:52:04 GMT

Randy, yeah, I gave up on those storms. I am watching the area of rain in Western Kansas. It looks impressive.

Alex

re: Rain moving in.....update on the forecast

Randy Cooper — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:59:43 GMT

looks like the cell is weakening as it approaches the border. How bout USA!!! They were amazing!

weather forecast

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