Here it comes?

re: Here it comes?

HummerSeeker — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 16:50:49 GMT

First again! Me! :)

Is that STormy or Breezy (I'm ashamed to say I don't know which is which!) Is she a champion frisbee player? Our dog will chase it and then runs around the yard and won't give it back!

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That is Stormy! Breezy had to stay in the car as there were other dogs out there, and Breezy still has some initial issues when she first meets other dogs. Stormy, interacted well with the others, and I will try to show her going after a frisbee dog but then not quite getting to the frisbee.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

Trentonite — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:01:13 GMT

On Brett's net cast this morning, he mentioned that jet streak bringing a petty significant cold front nearby. Significant would mean what, 40's for lows, 60's for highs? Just curious.
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At this time of the year a significant cold front can become just a summer cold front very quickly. This is what the new data shows. It is forecast to stall near us and bring a good chance of rain this weekend. We sometimes do get a fall cold front before September, but I don't see it quite yet.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

DaveC — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:09:13 GMT

Where could we buy one of these LRC shirts? lol

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Their available at zazzle.com. We will be designing another version soon.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

kcwxguy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:12:54 GMT

The pattern is changing before our eyes.

"Pay close attention, but please keep in mind that I still strongly believe that next years pattern doesn't really reveal itself until sometime in late August to late September."

Gary, I went ahead and edited what your statement should have said above.

LMAO

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Scott,

I will be able to clearly show you that it doesn't set up until much later than you are thinking! Replace August and September with October and November, until we can show otherwise.

re: Here it comes?

daveg616 — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:22:54 GMT

Gary,
Is it possible that Fay could block the upper low from moving east for a day or two causing the area to get alot of rain?

Dave

re: Here it comes?

HummerSeeker — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:29:32 GMT

Hey Gary! New shirts would be great - I'd wear one! But you need to make them in some colors OTHER than white - it's too see-through. Well for girls anyway.

re: Here it comes?

Nick Rau — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:30:54 GMT

Yes it seems that even though the pattern is still mainly intact in August, usually August brings different things than the earlier parts of summer, like last year most of the summer was dry for us with most of the rain staying just to our south, but by August we started getting MCS activity in north Missouri. This year the summer has been wet but now suddenly we are in a decent little dry spell. It will be interesting to see what sets up.

re: Here it comes?

Nick Rau — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:36:57 GMT

WOW, the GFS does something really weird with Fay, yes it will have a different idea 5 seconds from now but still, I bet Florida does not like that solution.

re: Here it comes?

Dwight — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:49:17 GMT

Gary, I'm guessing that on the night you premiered your new studio you gave a quick tour or something. I am sorry to admit but I have yet to see your new diggs as we have been so busy. We just don't watch the 5 or 6pm newscasts because of work and dinner. We usually watch the 10pm but of course that has been pushed into the wee hours of the morning many nights. Can they post your "tour" on-line so we can see it?

re: Here it comes?

kcwxguy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:59:16 GMT

"I will be able to clearly show you that it doesn't set up until much later than you are thinking! Replace August and September with October and November, until we can show otherwise. "

Well...we will see. I found the pattern early [late last September] this last year and I will be using the same methods for this next pattern, I guess we will see.

Because so much of the specifics of the end, transition, and birth of the cycles is unknown, I can't take your dates at face value completely.

I think we both agree that it is visible in October/November at the 500mb level. I just think it can be seen sooner elsewhere. I think we also both agree seeing it before October at the 500mb level is harder and impossible if you haven't already seen one cycle and know where to look.

I look forward to the challenge again this year! So much left to discover....

"Their available at zazzle.com. We will be designing another version soon."

Huh. More t-shirts!

re: Here it comes?

kcwxguy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 19:13:58 GMT

PVT - you were thinking about Charley earlier...

I think we are ok this time...

"Wind shear of 10-15 knots is expected to continue over Fay until the storm makes landfall on the west coast of Florida. This amount of wind shear usually means only modest intensification can occur, and we should not see a repeat of Hurricane Charley's rapid intensification."

This is the most fun time of year I think...we get tropics, a new formation of the LRC..and the bonus this week of Fall type weather!

re: Here it comes?

sjkelley6 — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 19:42:12 GMT

Our family moved from San Diego, California. We were told to prepare for a horribly hot August. Either we brought the weather with our move or there is something else going on!! Can you tell me why August is so delightful? Should we really prepare for September? Did I just jinx it? Thanks!

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First of all welcome to Kansas City. I doubt we will have an August like this next year, but it certainly has been nice. The weather pattern set up last October and it is still there in a weak state right now. This pattern has made it impossible for any heat to build into Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. There has been a "long term" longwave trough there and it is about to break down in the coming weeks. So, this is the main reason for the cooler summer weather. And, by the time it breaks down summer will be over. So, you came at the right time.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

MikeTrainor1 — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:54:36 GMT

looking forward to the ongoing debate between scott and gary on the LRC. i am kinda in scott's camp on this in that as the pattern breaks down and transitions into a new one, the new pattern (maybe trends would be a better word) start to show up. should be fun... i guess NOAA (CPC) has already called for a milder winter, tho' i couldn't find that specifically on their site(s).

when do they issue their long-ranger? scott... when are you issuing yours? if you're right, you should be able to predict out the pattern sooner.

btw... the new set is great! - mt

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MT,

Well, actually you are all in my camp. LOL We will see. According to the LRC the pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th. August and September are just a transition time, and still imortant, but something much bigger happens as we move into October. The debate begins.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

pvt_murphy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 22:10:24 GMT

fay is strengthening. if you look at the IR and visible sat imagery, the center of circulation has become more well defined and utilized a slight westerly jog to wrap moisture completely around the COC.

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Murph,

Fay is strengthening, but the convection seems to be mostly west of the center on the enhanced satellite picture. But, on radar there seems to be a more organized circulation. Did you see the latest GFS? It turns Fay west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The next 48 hours are going to be interesting to see where she goes.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

mamaof3girls — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 22:28:30 GMT

What a awesome weekend!!! It was the perfect weekend to get our new roof put on. They had the best weather for it. Looking forward to some rain soon. I have had too many zero's on my cocorahs calendar, but not near as many as some people. The Olympics are addictive, I have enjoyed watching it and feeling that unity as a nation. We are lucky!! Have a great day.
Monica

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Monica,

The upper low may track right into Kansas by Wednesday night, and this has to bring us some rain. If it takes that track.

Yes, I agree, this weekend was spectacular.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

pvt_murphy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:09:45 GMT

gary, do you think that when the low approaches us from the SSW that drier air will limit moisture up to the NW? this track clearly resembles a winter low that would bring us our best chances of snow...and usually a sharp cutoff(usually to the NW) of precip.

i saw that on the gfs regarding fay...and i dont believe it. they tend to follow the path of least resistance, which would be along the frontal boundary that has stalled out down there...however, mother nature does indeed have curveballs in her arsenal so nothing surprises me with tropical storms... they are more difficult to predict regarding track than a hurricane...they can get 'left behind' a lot easier.

are you still seeing an end of the month warmup? like you mentioned a couple weeks ago?

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PVT Murphy,

Look at the pattern we are in now, on the map posted. This upper low got caught under a ridge. If the low would have just moved on like it had in the past cycles of this LRC we would have had the hot spell right now. So, this low is preventing the heat from building in. Will it build in next week? It doesn't look like any prolonged period of heat. So, our # of 90 degree days for the contest may end up at 9, 10, 11, or maybe 12. We are at 9 right now.....amazing?

Gary

re: Here it comes?

MikeTrainor1 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:36:34 GMT

thanks for the response gary! i'm interested in the first long-ranger that isn't the almanac or noaa! i have a professional interest.... like watching the natural gas future prices! talk about a gamble, folks...

this board has the best folks watching the weather and in my opinion, everyone has learned more. that what this blog has done over the years. compliments to all!

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MT,

Thank you so much. That is the best compliment we can get. We would love for everyone to learn by reading the blog. I learn as well, believe me, so all of your input is so appreciated.

Gary

re: Here it comes?

marlina10 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 01:17:52 GMT

This weekend was amazing; it did feel like California weather. Now that summer is slowly winding down, I'm ready for fall!

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It did really feel like a California summer day in Santa Monica. There was barely a breeze, 55 degree dewpoints, and a few clouds. Not bad!

Gary

re: Here it comes?

HailJonathan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:16:00 GMT

my friends in florida still worried about Fay but it looks like it's moving more NWward now. interesting to see as this differs from the forecasts. Could this make for a stronger storm when it makes landfall potentially farther north?

re: Here it comes?

mamaof3girls — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:16:04 GMT

I had to tell you my funny Gary. My daughter Emma is in Kindergarten and she was drawing a picture on the back of one of her papers. It was a TV with a person standing in it...he had very little hair and was wearing blue. My mom is a teacher's aid in the class and asked her who it was. My Emma said, "it is Gary Lezak"!! So my mom sent the picture home and wrote off to the side, "this is Gary Lezak." Hahh...I thought that was hilarious, see my girls even know who to watch on TV for the weather. Even my oldest Ella will ask, "did Gary say it would rain or thunder tonight?" Anyways I thought you might find that kinda cute. I know I did.
Monica

re: Here it comes?

stjoelawyer — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:25:36 GMT

WELL let it stay dry for another two weeks corn is made beans as well. That way my lawn will burn up and I will not need to pay to have it mowed. Then September can start out out a new LRC pounding STJOE with cold and snow for two years running......Ted

re: Here it comes?

Nick Rau — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:56:06 GMT

Well finally maybe we will get that upper low after all, it just waited for about a week!!
It is interesting watching the GFS model move Fay around like that, I hope it does not take that track if so the "speculation" monster will once again be terrorizing wall street!

re: Here it comes?

Nick Rau — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:20:38 GMT

WOW, windsurfing during a tropical storm... thats right up there with climbing a TV tower during a lightning storm in the list of "bright" ideas!!

re: Here it comes?

sertorius — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 11:12:15 GMT

Gary:

Good beautifull, spectactular, amazing mid August morning to you sir!! Man is it nice out or what?? The past 5 days have just been amazing!! Wow!!

Just checking in to say hello-no, it is not winter yet but, but, thought about you this weekend with the snow they recieved in the high country of central Colorado this weekend!! This Upper Level Low has for sure produced some great weather-Denver almost made an all time low maximum this weekend-great stuff!!

Speaking of this low-just funny stuff-for 5 days the models had nada, zilch, nothing all week-even as late as the 6Z GFS yesterday-and then bam the 12Z comes out and vola there it is-I feel kind of like Johnny Test on Cartoon Network-should of seen that comming!!

I do think it will be interesting to see what will happen the next 48 hours. We do have some high clouds streaking in from the south this morning and it looks like on satelite it is indeed trying to drift North. But I wonder-will it actually make it?? I wonder if this strong ULL barreling into Southern Canada off the Pacific will maybe not suppress this southern plains energy if it speeds up some-prob. way off base but just a random thought!!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!! By the way, those T-shirts are just TIGHT!!! Those are awesome!!

Bill yea, I'm ready for winter but expecting a boring one here in Lawrence

re: Here it comes?

juba — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 11:31:17 GMT

Sleepy me tired myself and worn out I. ;-)

I liked last winter, it fixed up all the footprints in the snow so it looked smoth just in time for the weekend! I want a whole bunch of big storms but im diddoing (if that's a word!) sertorius.