How much rain? updated

re: How much rain will fall this week?

N2mountains — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 12:43:59 GMT

Gary,

Any possible rain amounts this week? These temps are fantastic and the 7 day looks great. Will we possibly have seen the worse heat and that be behind us?
Have a great day.

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I still think one more run into the 90s is likely, but the worst of summer is likely behind us. We barely had one moderate heat wave.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

pvt_murphy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 13:36:06 GMT

i say we get a modest 1/3rd of an inch out of the whole shebang. which, sadly, would triple our monthly total.

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Pvt Murphy,

We need to break the ice. Suddenly it has dried out. Maybe, this will produce more than what you are expecting. There is a chance.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

C in Raymore — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 13:50:03 GMT

okay so when should this all start moving in. I was watching the news last night and it had some green here around 12 but it was late so I might have read the times wrong.

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The Powercast we showed had rain south of Kansas City at noon, but then bands started moving in during the afternoon. We will update it tonight with the model of our choice. We have different Powercasts to choose from. Remember the potential is there for us to get less than a tenth of an inch. So, don't set your expectations too high yet.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

C in Raymore — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:30:29 GMT

i am fine with whatever we get just dont want to get rained out of the zoo. so if we dont get much i am okay with that. my lawn would love some rain but its august you cant expect too much. should it still be highs around 80 tomorrow or if it doesnt rain lower than that?

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It will be somewhere between 78 and 84 degrees Wednesday, and then if it stays cloudy Thursday it will be in the 70s. But, will it rain? Yes, but just a little or a nice soaking? It is difficult breaking a dry spell. And, this is what August has turned into.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

jonkleinow — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:03:39 GMT

My parents on Sanibel Island reported a peak wind gust of 40 mph overnight and about 1.25" of rain. Nothing spectacular.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

weatherfreak01 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:04:34 GMT

Gary,
When should we expect it to hit close to the 90's again. Will we actually get into the 90's? We are having a pool party over labor day weekend and it would sure be nice if we had warm weather to help keep the pool warm for the party. Other than that, I love the temps in the 80's with lower humidity. At least you can do stuff outside without feeling like you are wading through the air.
Audra in Lee's Summit

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Audra,

There is no indication of 90s at this point. I still think we will have three or four more 90 degree days, but likely no more than this. If we get through three more weeks we may not see 90 again.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

weatherfreak01 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:45:43 GMT

Gary, the three or four 90 degree days would help rewarm up the pool. Any chance that will happen before Labor Day weekend?
Audra

re: How much rain will fall this week?

WycoSpotter — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:50:26 GMT

Anyone else see that Tropical Storm Fay has actually strengthened over the Florida Peninsula. Winds have now increased to 65 MPH, and has created itself somewhat of an eye on radar. Will be interesting to see what happens with this system when it comes back over open water tomorrow. I saw that the CPC said some models showed it making landfall in florida three times in the next week or so. Who knows if that would actually happen, but would be interesting for sure.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

kcwxguy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:02:29 GMT

Fay. Pfft. Nice rain for those that need it.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

kcwxguy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:06:25 GMT

We have had ULLs drop over KC with lower pressures than Fay. I am not impressed.

The only thing somewhat interesting is watching Fay bounced around like a ping pong in the steering flow.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

HailJonathan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:12:42 GMT

wow...that is the most beautiful radar image of a TROPICAL STORM I have ever seen, it's amazing that it's not strengthening over land or that they didn't classify it as a hurricane. Amazing!

re: How much rain will fall this week?

lezakEF5 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:12:55 GMT

Fay is strengthening over land and is now up to 65 mph.

Alex

re: How much rain will fall this week?

HailJonathan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:17:08 GMT

okay I just looked at satellite. Fay has developed a TRUE eye as it's moving over lake okeechobee. wow. Gary this is amazing.

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I agree, and if Fay moves out over water tonight then she will become a hurricane. She is close to hurricane strength right now. But, will she move out over the open water?

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

RDub — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:22:37 GMT

Yes, Faye is intensifying over land, very unusual. Of course, south Florida is not exactly land; it's mostly the huge wetland known as the Everglades, so there is a lot of very warm water in the area.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

davidmcg — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:26:41 GMT

Hey Gary the NWS is pretty much forecasting the same rainfall as you have. Anywhere from 0.25" to 0.30" depending on which county in the area you look at. Now that summer is in its last month, when might we get your autumn temp and rainfall estimate?

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The weather pattern is going to be in transition. So, issuing a long term forecast is tougher until around late October. The new LRC will be setting up between October 1st and November 10th.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

Nick Rau — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:01:33 GMT

Fay is definitely an interesting thing to watch in this dry spell here, I to have thought how weird it is to see the storm looking as close to a hurricane as it ever has so far, only after making land fall in Florida, then again if a tropical cyclone HAD to choose a place to make land fall it would pick Florida since it is flat, swampy, and surrounded by warm ocean on three sides. The slight strengthening over land is not as surprising to me as it would have been since I now have seen tropical systems do this on at least three other occasions that I can remember. 1. T.S. Danny over the southeast some years back, 2. Erin last year(tropical storm in OKLAHOMA?) officially no according to the experts, but it had the radar signature, the sustained winds at the surface ect. if I was in it I would have probably said that I was in a T.S., 3. Fay over Florida. There may have been others, but those are the ones I can remember right now.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

davidmcg — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:02:21 GMT

Ahh Gary, tough is one of your middle names. Coming up with the LRC was tough,. I know forecasting during the autumn is one of the hardest times of the year, but can't you just give us your best estimate while we all await the new LRC? I can guess, but what good is that? I bet we have a better than average chance for a hard freeze the first 10 days of October and I believe we might be moving back into a cycle for another October surprise the middle to end of the month. Just my guess. Also, we are just far enough north and west and an additional 300 to 500 feet in altitude out here in Jefferson County KS than all of you in KC that this is the time of year when our weather starts diverting drastically from yours.

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Actually, if this pattern holds on in a transitional state, then we could have an early frost in late September. Jeff Penner has been thinking this way for a while now, but I think the pattern changes enough by the end of September that we will have lost our "long term" longwave trough just east of us by then.

I just can't tell you right now. We will learn more and maybe next year be able to make a September prediction. Right now it is anyones guess.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

GaryB — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:03:36 GMT

With the contest, looks like Kcbrett82 is closest so far and is the front runner. Kcbrett picked 8, 90 degree days and we've had 7 and the high picked was 97 and we had that on the 3rd. Too early for congrats, but a pat on the back is due for being the closest so far.

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I believe we have had 9 90 degree days since July 16th. So, it is going to be an exciting last 12 days of August.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

Nick Rau — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:18:56 GMT

If the LRC really falls apart by the time we get into September than we may have occasional 90's off and on for awhile I remember some years where we can have some 90 degree days in October. Although it likely would be a different kind of "Heat" it would not last and would likely develop under lower fall humidity and be helped out with downslope winds as we will have stronger wind fields due to the strengthening jet. That being said if we do get a cool fall pattern then summer might be over and we just don't know it yet.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

kcwxguy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:42:52 GMT

Nick - Summer is over. It ended when we broke the mini heatwave.

The LRC is already falling apart..slowly. It is morphing. Pieces of the new pattern are establishing.

Blah blah blah..Gary and I will hash it out over the next month or so.

re: How much rain will fall this week?

nastyweather — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:55:06 GMT

Jeff Masters is saying that Fay is actually strengthening over Florida, which he can't explain. Really a weird situation it sounds like:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1033&tstamp=200808

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I can explain it! Conditions are very favorable for intensification with the only limiting factor being the fact it is over land. But, it is over a very tropical marsh land today and the favorable conditions have allowed for strengthening. When it moves out to sea tonight watch out, it should rapidly intensify, stall and threaten areas of Florida that haven't been hit by a hurricane directly FROM THE EAST very often. Only ONCE since 1851.

Gary

re: How much rain will fall this week?

WinterTracker — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 23:28:34 GMT

What would happen if Fay took the possible course of going back across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Would it intensify there and make another landfall, or would the shear from the upper level winds cause it to fall apart?

re: How much rain will fall this week?

juba — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 23:36:38 GMT

Would Fay have done the same thing that Alison did if Fay moved over no land or very little land, then went strait into the gulf of mexico? Could Fay still become another Alsion like storm if stays over water long enough? In tresting little storm he/she is!

re: How much rain will fall this week?

pvt_murphy — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:18:53 GMT

one of my contacts in SE seminole county has had max sustained winds of 30mph with a gust of 57 in the last squall to pass through. they are still hours away from the center of circulation. by the way...7 inches of rain already, and not even halfway through the event!

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re: How much rain? updated

Randy Cooper — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:35:24 GMT

wow, that was a great story on the tires! i had no idea, and i shouldnt be saying that cuz i work in walmart tire and lube in chillicothe. we just werent trained to watch for that! its unbelievable! im gonna talk to my shop manager to see if we can get that changed so all the techs can be aware of it.

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Randy,

Russ is very interested and if they make any changes let Russ know! Thanks. Now, is it going to rain.

Gary

re: How much rain? updated

kcwxguy — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 05:13:58 GMT

Gary - yes, the GFS is right. In pouring over surface data, I can already see the beginning of the change.

I believe this ULL is the beginning of the new cycle and the end of the old cycle. Think of it as the baton handoff between two cycles. The ULL was spawned by the old cycle, but controlled by the new.

This is the transition, but feel the new pattern has started with this ULL.

Could it be? Could you see it now?

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Scott,

I don't think it is the beginning of the new cycle, but the beginning of the transition.

Gary

re: How much rain? updated

WinterTracker — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:59:41 GMT