Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

angvic00 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:47:12 GMT

Hi Gary,

I guess the contest ends this weekend, right? Where do we stand now as far as 90 degree days and highest temp?

******************

Highest temp 97 and add one more 90 day on for today. High as of 1 p.m. has been 90 at KCI.

Jeremy

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:09:35 GMT

NOOOO! Oh well! I'll try next time! Can I say that I said 11 90s and it count? ;)

******************

Andrew,

You made a great forecast! You were closer than Gary, Brett, Jeff, and me:)

Jeremy

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Nick Rau — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:20:33 GMT

the 850 mbar front looks like it is lighting up to the north, I'm assuming since the surface front is to our south and the line of thunderstorms is still well to our north.! Let the games begin;)

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

RickMckc — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:36:57 GMT

Nice analysis, Gary. Let's hope it holds together and rains really good!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

MamaTSG — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:54:47 GMT

Gary's comment at the end of the blog entry regarding the lack of earlier thunderstorms that could have siphoned off the energy for tonight's potential activity made me wonder whether there is a tropical corollary. Specifically, is it possible that a potential five tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin all at once could rob some of them of the energy they need to explode into monster storms? Or is Gustav already too far along to have his energy sucked away before he blossoms into a major hurricane? I have always been fascinated by tropical weather, but my enthusiasm has been dampened somewhat in the last couple of years by several mission trips I've taken to the Mississippi Gulf Coast to help in the rebuilding efforts after Katrina. The devastation of the storm and the obstacles the survivors have had to surmount in order to rebuild their lives has been humbling; it's gut-wrenching to think that all their efforts could be undone or seriously set back this weekend.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

stormhammer76 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:57:10 GMT

Okay, we've got an MD on top of us from SPC. Development of storms after 21Z (4pm) and WW likely required. Probably STW until 11pm.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Bob in OP — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:59:04 GMT

Weather Team,

Presently 95 degrees [my predicted high] at my casa in south OP. I may squeeeze out one more degree. It looks like front has passed or is over KCI. The temp there is down to 89.

Gustav: Near hurrican status now. Latest 5-day cone has shifted back to the east by about 100 miles. Interesting! Perhaps the trough about to effect us has a bearing on the path of Gistav?

Bob

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

bewild79 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:01:47 GMT

What time is 21z?

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

drpostel — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:03:03 GMT

once again ... exceptional temperature gradient between OP and the NOrthland

@3pm 97 LWC, 96 IXD, 95 OJC, 94 MKC

and the rathole MCI ?

90

real weather or instrument error, i doubt such a tight long-lived N-S gradient has been observed in recent years

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Bob in OP — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:04:52 GMT

I posted too soon. We just hit 96 here...

Bob ;^)

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

slim — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:21:44 GMT

Is the line that is to the north of us now, what will affect us?

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

stormhammer76 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:22:06 GMT

STW #871 effective unti 11:00. All of KC area.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

DaveC — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:23:10 GMT

t-storm watch

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

mattmaisch — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:23:56 GMT

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire viewing area just issued.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

JPnKC — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:24:37 GMT

Thunderstorm Watch till 11PM- ALL of the metro

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

beckysma — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:31:14 GMT

I could have told you by my headache-o-meter that it was going to storm, even before reading the update.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

beckysma — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:33:03 GMT

Besides, it's Thursday! Remember eariler in the season, seemed like storms always came on Thursday.

:)

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

LSMOWatcher — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:38:05 GMT

Do we have an ETA for the storms yet? I am so looking forward to a good thunderstorm. It's been awhile since we had one.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

stormhammer76 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:38:57 GMT

Here is our watch probability tables:

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : < 2%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

BoiseStateFootballFan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:52:51 GMT

I dont know you guys, remember that we lived on an island here a few months back and storms had a habit of "diverging" or going around us..... I'll go WAY out on a limb here and say KCI and the Northland get missed altogether, downtown gets a .10th, south Olathe gets the bulk of the rain.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

KansasPatriot — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:53:38 GMT

Lets get it on Kansas City! Alright! Finally some fun weather....it has been a while hasnt it?

Can you imagine what this blog would be like if we lived in southern Louisiana right now?

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

BoiseStateFootballFan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:57:30 GMT

I feel like I'm at the casino here odds and all ... could you imagine all the weather enthusiasts (including me) down at the boat if they had a weather book that worked like a sports book! HA what FUN!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

stormhammer76 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:00:16 GMT

Looks like the line up north by the borders of KS, NE and MO is starting to expand.

I'd say ETA around 6:30 or 7 perhaps? Thats for that line if it does develop this direction. It also depends on if anything forms in front of it in this area.

Pete

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

WinterTracker — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:00:59 GMT

I am not too excited with how our weather looks today. I am more interested in what the tropics are doing. What's the weather team's latest opinion on the system? Gustav just ran in to Jamaica and could be further weakened by the mountains there. With the way this storm keeps running over all these islands, will it have time to become a major hurricane? I am just confused by all the reports on Gustav "possibly becoming a major hurricane" and "Gustav may be further weakened by land interaction". Does that make sense?

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

HummerSeeker — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:08:09 GMT

I think WinterTracker Gustav weakens over land, then over the open water/warmth it strenghthens again. So I guess it could get stronger. Depends on how many islands it runs into I guess! I think it will have plenty of time over open water to strengthen. But yea - I'm keeping a closer eye on that than our storm! LOL

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

stormhammer76 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:12:10 GMT

Once Gustav passes Jamacia, a majority of the forecasts show it going straight into the Gulf of Mexico, which it could without touching any more land. But, as with all hurricane forecasts, it is never exact. If it scoots closer to the land of Cuba, then it will remain weaker and by the time it hits the gulf, it may only strenghten to say, Cat 1 or Cat 2. But, if it is unobstructed after Jamaica, it could strenghten to Cat 1 or 2 on its way to the gulf then higher once it gets in the gulf. This this what their major concern is.

Pete

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Nick Rau — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:27:10 GMT

The air is very still and humid here in St. Joe with a dark sky to the north with thunder rumbling... the anticipation;)

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

farmgirl — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:32:38 GMT

Gosh darn it, under a serve thunderstorm watch. I am so through with the weather this year!!!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

juba — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:32:50 GMT

I still think it will blow over, miss us, LIKE IT always does. Just meso-rain. Been way to dry lately.

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
TOPEKA KANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW VERY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BOTH ALONG
AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WITH SHEAR OF
25-30KT PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS STORMS DEVELOP E AND SE THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

lezakEF5 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:33:18 GMT

Gary,

When you mentioned the storms will electirically active. How can you tell this...just curious??

Storms are looking pretty strong...I hope many places get a lot of rain, and maybe KCI will end up above average?!?!?!?

Alex

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

farmgirl — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:40:26 GMT

Why can't we just get good old fashioned rain stroms this year instead of the strong winds and hail. I'm still doing repairs from the June 2nd storm. Been on a three month waitng list just to get the old barn roof fixed. It's still just perched on the old rafters so if we get 70 MPH winds I'm afraid it will just tear off!!!

Just got a new house roof too. Grrrrr.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

C in Raymore — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 21:45:14 GMT

oh man i am so hoping for rain but I am thinking they will slide right by us. oh please rain come to KC!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

farmgirl — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:09:14 GMT

A couple cells blossoming just north of Johnson County.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

farmgirl — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:10:04 GMT

Can someone post where the front is located right now?

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Stormdog — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:20:13 GMT

Stormdog - Don't forget the BSHE (Blue Springs Hole Effect) I am leading toward nada here. Hope I am wrong.

Dog

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Alden — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:33:07 GMT

I am so mad! I think anyways. I have STRONG feelings that it will not rain at my house tonight!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

weatherwyco — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:36:14 GMT

Yeah I am thinking nothing here in western wyco tonight.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

BoiseStateFootballFan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:39:13 GMT

Look at this! Latest radar looks like some cells "jumped" KC!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

mstauss — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:41:25 GMT

We recently had a 33mph wind gust from the North and the temperature has dropped more than 15 degrees up here by Trimble, MO. No rain yet, it looks like it's going just to the North of us. Semi-Live updates and a webcam can be seen here. http://www.houseofstauss.com/weather/wx.html

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

Kimberly — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:43:38 GMT

Had to leave my son's football practice early. When we heard the first rumbles of thunder, the coach wanted to keep going for a bit. Then we saw lightning, and all of us said practice was over! This was in Overland Park and 95th and Roe

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

whirlygirl — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:50:01 GMT

I got lotsa rain, a little wind and a few thunder runbles. Nothing severe, nothing active, just , you know, rain.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

sheldan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:50:27 GMT

Hail in Raytown with pretty good rainfall for a short period

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

PlatteCityMatt — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:53:33 GMT

KCI forcefield in full effect....Not a drop here....thunder...but no rain. Why am I surprised???

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

jules7373 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:58:29 GMT

Good rain, little hail, quite a bit of lightning in Lees Summit right now

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:59:39 GMT

Yea, it is raining here in Lee's Summit. At 5:17 it was getting dark and stormy looking W of the 50 & 470. We drove home and within 10 minutes we started to hear thunder. It is pouring here now with winds. The cell just appeared suddenly. The rain will make pulling weeds easier though so that is good. Good luck everybody else with the rain.
Audra

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

mstauss — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:02:06 GMT

Looks like my web host is having some problems. Sorry for the error messages for anyone that clicked on my link above.

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:07:44 GMT

Wow, it is getting really loud here in between Lee's Summit, Blue Springs and Lake Lotawana. We are under a severe tstorm warning. There must be wind shear because the clouds outside the window are moving towards the cell. weird! I swear it almost looks like rotation, the clouds looks like they don't know which way to move.
Audra

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:16:48 GMT

It is raining so hard and the wind is blowing so hard it almost looks like fog outside. Tons of bolts with thunder almost at the same time, very loud! The laptop is unplugged from power even though we have surge protectors on the house. I think we might have had some hail as the rain once in a while sounds louder than normal on the skylight.
Audra in Lee's Summit

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

mdg2fast4u — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:18:13 GMT

new post!

re: Thunderstorm threat is about to increase

C in Raymore — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:45:31 GMT

wow this has been some crazy rain, its been pouring yippee for rain!