First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

kane1970 — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:14:25 GMT

Wow The end of next week lokks pretty nice.
And also wow LRCweather.com. Really cool. Have a great day.

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Thanks! And, we have to watch that Friday system closely. Then, next week, well we will see.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

weather export — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:30:29 GMT

Gary,

I hope this next storm stays at it's own strength by the time it get here, i really want it to be cold as i head out of town this week for orlando florida for thanksgiving. I have a question for you gary, is it going to be cold enough for the snow to fall and is the ground going to be cold enough for the snow to stick. These are the questions that i am thinking about right now. If the snow is going to stick then how much will we have.

brad

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Brad,

It is just a myth that the ground can be too warm for sticking. If it snows hard enough it will stick. The October Surprise on October 22, 1996 is the perfect example of this. We hadn't even had our first freeze until it dropped to 32 degrees the day of that snow. The ground was warm, but it snowed so hard that we had 6 to 8 inches on the ground during the evening when the trees came tumbling down. The snow melted fast after it ended. So, it is more dependent on will it snow hard enough, rather than is the ground cold enough.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

N2mountains — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:03:26 GMT

More like Ice crystals than actual flakes in teh southern part of the metro. I will continue to wait for the first flakes in my neighborhood. I did have shiny roof tops Saturday morning, but not from flakes.
Amazing how some perinniels in the downtown areas are still thriving, apparently they are protected and it has not been cold enough.

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Yes, tonight should be a hard freeze.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Nick Rau — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:21:08 GMT

So the LRC has it's own website? Now that is a story within itself!!
It has actually cleared out quite a bit here in St. Joe with still high clouds.

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

Nick Rau — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:40:50 GMT

Just checked out the new site... AWESOME , JUST AWESOME. Well, what can I say, just one week from tonight;)

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Thanks Nick! Now, did the roulette wheel land on the right spot or not? As every day goes by we learn much more.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

mamaof3girls — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:52:54 GMT

Having that site up will make your life alot easier....you can refer the new bloggers to that instead of having to explain it every time. Nice weather today....perfect for my youngest's (Eryn) 3rd Birthday!! I am looking forward to the cool sleeping weather tonight!! Have a great day!
Monica

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

Nick Rau — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:55:49 GMT

That is a tough question...
have had some good storm systems, although the track of the ULL's for most of them do make me wonder, and there has been a decent amount of east coast troughing(sp?) which USUALLY is kind of dry, although could bring strong shots of cold air... either way like last winter we probably will not know till' December if not later. I just have to be patient;)

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Nick,

Yes, but look at that long stormy stretch in October. A MAJOR FACTOR!

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:02:44 GMT

NICE Site! Who does Ed work for? I saw grlevel3, and Analyst on there too!

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:07:24 GMT

Compare this:

http://tinyurl.com/6748hy

With this:
http://tinyurl.com/5zfzjw

and look at this:
http://tinyurl.com/642yhd

94.5% sure it's around 46 days

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

twister11 — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:13:16 GMT

I finally know what Scott looks like! U almost feel like u get to know him on this blog

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:19:04 GMT

yah, Now it's almost a good as knowing Scott in person. :) Hopefully there will be a bloggers meeting in January or February next year.

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

Nick Rau — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:22:51 GMT

The one big reason I'm still waiting to get overly excited for the year is more of a mental one then a scientific one, if I keep my expectations in check then I am less likely to get disappointed, and if it goes over my expectations then it will be like a "weather" bonus:) If that makes sense. In other words... Don't count your troughs before they dig.LOL

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Good one Nick,

Can you imagine just the ground turning white? Keep the expectations at that level and you will be happy.

Have a fantastic day.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

RickMckc — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:29:09 GMT

Wow - way to go gents, on the new site!

So is your LRC team actually for hire?

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:33:15 GMT

Pretty cool to see Scott's face and read more about his background and experience at Sprint - he's coming out from behind the curtain!

So are the energies now more devoted to an interactive website and business in forecast consulting rather than continued research and an attempt at some academic research / writing / validation?

I know Penner isn't on air with you and may have more time for research? How about your partners in this business? Would they have time to devote to an academic effort at validation?

I know you have often discussed how busy you are and you simply don't have time to make any effort at researching this and publishing it in an academic journal that is peer reviewed...and I understand do your point, but I only raise the question because, as you know, rather than simply spreading this blanket theory to the masses with little academic backing, I'd love to see more rigor applied to the theory and a chance for academic interests to fully analyze and provide their input...

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Notes,

Yes, this is one of the goals of LRCWeather.com. The research will hopefully lead to a publishing of the LRC in an academic journal. We have a lot of ideas and we are working towards this eventuality. We will be sharing more of this research on our site here and, especially on the site.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp;amp; the developing weather pattern

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:42:52 GMT

...My comments got posted before I finished them.

I don't mean for my comments to come of harsly, but the reason I bring them up is that if your ideas have validity, I'd love to seem them verified scientifically which I think would add much more support to your efforts through your new business and elsewhere.

Do you see where I'm coming from?

I'm curious too about Rick's question too - are you "for hire" on this? Does this mean you'll be offering different forecast details to people who are paying clients versus what you provide to your station and on air?

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Yes, this is another one of our goals with the new company. As you know I hesitate to make more specific long range forecasts until we know the details of the LRC for any given year. I have confidence that this can be done by sometime in December, and with more reliability in January.

We are going to work very hard to provide quantitative as well as qualitative support to the LRC. Otherwise it will not be embraced by the meteorological community. It is a slow process, but we will have a lot more in the coming days and weeks.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

superwizbang — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:53:38 GMT

Gary,

Interesting business concept you have there. I might suggest that next to your pictures on the "About Us" page that you place your full names on/around the photos though. Just a little uniformity with what is standard out in the web world. Good luck! I won't be home for your forcast but you bet it's going to be recorded.

-Ken

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

mattmaisch — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:07:01 GMT

Hi Gary..

The new LRC site looks great. Should be another good resource for everyone. 12Z GFS not as exciting as the earlier run, but we all know how the models can be when you get too far out.

The stormy stretch we had in October which you referred to in your dialogue with Nick is what makes me look forward to next Monday's forecast. Hopefully 08/09 in KC will be like 07/08 was in Madison, or at least relatively speaking.

Have a good one...

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Matt,

I don't quite see it like last year in Madison as this pattern has some big differences. But, there is potential.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

kcwxguy — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:07 GMT

Notes - we certainly will be taking on your thoughts head on. Certainly, you know I have a keen interest in this. The key first step is beyond the general definition of the LRC, rather breaking it down into smaller chunks and providing discussion/research on each segment. This is a key focus for us.

I have been doing extensive research and believe there are ways to provide evidence far beyond what has been done to date.

That said, certainly we will be active and as out front as possible on the theory.

As it relates to the current weather, it is very exciting right now and much is being seen and learned. This NBC Action News Weather team does a tremendous job of utilizing the LRC and providing the most accurate news weather forecast in town!

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:25:31 GMT

kcwxguy said:
[I]t is very exciting right now and much is being seen and learned. This NBC Action News Weather team does a tremendous job of utilizing the LRC and providing the most accurate news weather forecast in town!

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You're sure starting to sound like a member of the team around here, Scott!

Are the 45-day forecasts going to be put out again this winter once you have an idea of what your cycle is?

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Notes,

As soon as I think it can be done, we will do it. But, I am not comfortable with it yet, and this makes it very difficult to issue the winter forecast next Monday. It will be a preliminary forecast, and just like any forecast it will likely be adjusted. Last year's accuracy began as we moved into December and January. So, just like a forecast for this Friday, it will be adjusted as we learn more.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

mamaof3girls — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:50:35 GMT

I had some more time to check out the new website....what a great idea. Did you all keep this a secret until it was all up or have you given some hints that maybe I have missed in the blog??

How exciting to see Scott too....is he someone that you knew had a very good understanding of how the LRC and therefore you asked him to join the team?? How did that come about? How awesome that Scott is part of this, I hope it is a huge success for you all. What you all discuss is way above my head but I always enjoy reading the interaction's between the ones who do have a good understanding of weather. I do hope Scott continues to post on this blog from time to time. I would miss all the conversations he brings to everyone. Again congrats to you all!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Scott will be all over this blog. So, don't worry. This is something that we have talked about for over a year and we have been putting it together for quite some time now.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:04:28 GMT

Gary,

At the Surface:

http://tinyurl.com/5toau9
http://tinyurl.com/6q85xu

At 500MB:

http://tinyurl.com/5fyjap
http://tinyurl.com/65ouhp

Now this storm gave us .15 last time (October 7th), looks like it will only give us maybe a few flurries this time. But something could change.

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Andrew,

I don't think it is that storm from October 7th. Let's see how it looks later in the week.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:15:56 GMT

Actually it gave us on the 6th like .41"

We will see Gary, but it seems to have the same connections

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

davidmcg — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:48:18 GMT

Well Gary we have 46 degrees but no sign of the partly sunny skies here in McLouth KS

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

nicknack — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:50:05 GMT

Is there a connection with the storm system that came through the KC area on October 14-16th and the GFS estimates for November 27th-28th? This would be around a 44 day cycle. Could we get some snow fall on the back side of this.

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 20:22:13 GMT

Scott -

Did you remove all the comments and feedback people gave you on your own kcwx blog? I would ask you there, but I can't, as I can't seem to find a way to comment...

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

drumchick99 — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 20:25:18 GMT

Hi. I just moved to KC and am looking for a good weather blog. This is the best I've seen. I was living in DeKalb, IL the past 3 years getting my masters degree. DeKalb is near Chicago, so I got sort of used to the frigid winters. I was really hoping to come back to some milder winters. Any reason why we're getting below average temps?

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First of all, welcome to the NBC Action News Weather blog. Right now we are going up and down. Wednesday it will be surging up through the 60s. We are still figuring out the winter pattern and will have a lot more very soon.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

juba — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:23:25 GMT

Have ya figured out how to fine out what our snowflake ocntest entries were yet?

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Skylar,

You chose November 30th at 6:38 AM. Good luck!

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:42:21 GMT

nicknack,

Yes, I see. ok now I'm 80.9% sure that the cycle is around 46 days. I'm 97.9% sure the cycle is between 44 and 47 days/

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

kcwxguy — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 23:53:45 GMT

Notes - you can reach me via email, and I will answer any and all questions.

;-)

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

zeusthegreat — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:25:16 GMT

Gary,

Curious why you bought straight into either the 6 am or 12 pm GFS model solution for this chance of precipitation on friday night? Seems to me that the gfs is the only model suggesting anything like this. What is your reasoning for using it, was that the only think you have to display past the last day of the NAM?

You can compare the runs and look at model data here:

http://www.geocities.com/weatherboy05/weathermodel.htm?20069

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I will do more of a comparison on Tuesday if it justifies doing so. It is still way too early, but I didn't choose a model. The set up is there for the strong wave heading into the west coast to dive our way.

Gary

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

heavysnow — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:27:58 GMT

The new 7 day stinks......You actually had me paying attention with a chance of snow on Saturday. My Snowflake entry was Nov 23rd.

I already have my Christmas Lights up and I am ready for snow.

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Let's see how it looks on Tuesday.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

chiefsfan — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 01:34:53 GMT

Hello Gary:

I know it's still early, but do you think will have any accumulations here in the Metro on Friday- Saturday? What does it look like for Mon- Tues next week any storms?
Thanks for your time!!!!

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

weather export — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:54:11 GMT

Gary,

Since i forgot what i put for the snowflake contest can you find mine and tell be what i put down for the contest.

also i was wondering if you could find out the forecast for Orlando Florida since i will be heading down there for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

thanks

brad

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

NotesInTheMargin — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 03:03:52 GMT

zeusthegreat: I think you've got a good point...even the GFS appears to show this little shortwave losing steam right as it moves over us Friday PM...

If you take the models in toto, it appears as though that wave will have little if any lift left for our area.

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

zeusthegreat — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 03:13:01 GMT

No offense Gary, but obviously displaying a 500 mb chart and then talking about the potential of a storm 5 days away off of that chart is "picking a model".

Seems like anytime the word "snow" gets mentioned that far out its like the "snow drums" start to beat (i.e. look at blog questions already).

I can imagine its difficult to find decent graphics to use past 2 or 3 days and you have to work with what you have. Besides, i'm sure your weather producer did much of the show this evening as you were on site. However, "cautiously optimistic" may be a better work for describing any "snowy solution" in this currently transitioning weather pattern.

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Yes and no! There is nothing wrong with saying there is a slight chance of snow later in the week. I made it clear that this was not a strong storm.

Gary

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

LRCfan — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 04:15:10 GMT

I think we could see our second chance of flurries on saturday!!! :)

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Andrew_Stafford — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:26:59 GMT

I going for a 40% chance of rain and snow. I really think this is one of the storms from October (around the 7th) I've look anywhere from 40 days to 55 days and it look like 46 days for most.

re: First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

Winterfan — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:34:01 GMT

Sounds like a lot of people have modelitis. Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll be all warm or all cold.

re: First snowflakes &amp; the developing weather pattern

billinlawrence — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 11:37:59 GMT

Gary:

Good chilly late Fall morning to you sir!! Currently at around 28 this morning-still have to use the NWS data as i have yet to purchase a weather station for the new abode. It is great out this morning but you can feel the warm up out there-it has that smell to it!! Noticed some clouds this morning and looking at satelite I figured they were from the first phase of the warmer air comming in though the real warmth comes tomorrow!!

The Sleep Out went great Thursday night-that was the first time in 12 years of doing this that I got wet-the law of averages finally caught up with me!!! Time to pay the piper here: could anyone have been anymore wrong than I regarding the front last Thursday-talk about a led zepplin ballon of analysis LOL-oh well, live and learn-I'll keep plugging away!!!!

Haven't had a chance to really look ahead or behind for that matter but I just wanted to say hello and say thanks for the words of encouragement last week reagrding the event-we had 17 sleep out and then they worked for 5 hours at various agencies here in Lawrence on Friday-it was great!!!

I really like the new web site-what a fantastic idea and congrads to Scott-as Spocoli would say-awesome totally awesome!!!I am having some porblems getting logged in but will try to reset my pass word. Again-what a great idea!!!!

Have a great day-I am almost getting fully back into the weather swing of things...

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I think in the next two weeks, as the pattern gets more energetic and exciting, you will be in here. Have a fantastic day. I am glad everything went well.

Gary

First snowflakes & the developing weather pattern

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