Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

W0XDL — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:00:19 GMT

No kidding on the gas prices. I filled up this morning and I can't remember the last time it cost me $14 for a full tank. As for the weather, bring on the SNOW!

DL

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Anderstar — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:07:37 GMT

Hello,

Although I'm sure many would like the weather to be nice to get around in for the holidays, I am hoping you can forcast just a little snow. My sister who lives in Florida will be here the 26th to the 1st of Dec. and it would be such a nice treat for her to see a little snow while she is here. So what chance do we have for that snow?

LetitsnowLetitsnowLetitsnow

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

NorthlandKB — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:33:26 GMT

I'm seeing some radar returns just north of the metro area and into St. Jo...is there any precipitation actually hitting the ground?

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There may be some flurries or snow showers. Shouldn't amount to anything though.

Jeremy

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

boootz — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:52:05 GMT

WOWZER, was that temp change ever a shock. I went out to feed and with no wind break from the North I was smacked right in the face with winter, certainly wasn't ready for that, and will now spend the day getting water bucket heaters turned on and tested and straw out for all the animals. My only hope is that the pattern has changed enough to allow someone else besides us to get all the snow this year, I am good with just hearing about it, I don't really have to experience it. I do have to put in my old wive's tale forecast, since the squirrels haven't been as busy this year, and the wolly worms were half black and half brown and the persimmon I cut open showed a knife, having observed all that, I am going with a cold winter, with one severe ice event and light snow for North of I-70.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

MCSev — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:21:39 GMT

I still think we are getting the 1 inch of snow on the 26th of November at around 11 a.m. Not sure I'll like the cold & snow this year but I think I speak for EVERYONE -- $ 1.50 for gasoline is a sure welcome!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

N2mountains — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:30:27 GMT

Maps look good for Thanksgiving event. Trans-Siberian Orchestra is in town the 29th and my one inch of snow is measured at 8pm when the concert begins. Perfect timing, bring it on!
This weekend looks great for decorating the house outside for Christmas. reminder for everone of us Clark Griswolds to be extra careful with the ladder use and doing things we do not normally do on a daily basis.

www.angelsinlight.com

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:51:02 GMT

38 Degrees Today, I hope! That would make two days in a row! crossing my fingers.

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For those that love snow there has been about 30" or a little more in Marquette, MI so far this month. Check out the camera on the NBC station's website there...pretty amazing!

Jeremy

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

reafamily — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:21:43 GMT

I hope the storm does wait until Sunday to materialize as I will be driving home from Sioux Falls, SD on Saturday. Then bring on the snow!

Pat

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

marlina10 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:57:52 GMT

My dog was invigorated by the cold air this morning, too. I, however, was not! =)

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Chris — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:04:22 GMT

http://www.wluctv6.com/weather/content.aspx?id=81028

Webcam Link

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:44:37 GMT

Thanks Jeremy! I'm Jealous!!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

A dogg — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:12:29 GMT

Long time no blog!! I have been really busy lately and haven't had time to get on, but I am here now! This next storm system looks to be right on track for my 1 inch of snow! Also, I am going down to Branson tommorrow and fly fishing sat. What do you think the temp. will be down there around 10 a.m.? I hate fishing down there when its cold!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

kcwxguy — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:10:51 GMT

Hey Jeremy -

Marquette has had that 30 inches or so, with another possible 24 inches on the way. More amazing than that, is that they have only 11 cancellations for school [including private or related education].

In Kansas City, that would happen with just a THREAT of snow. LOL.

It seems Accu [you know..THEM] Joe Bastardi's Winter forecast is dead on...NOT.

"The Great Plains was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last year."

[Don't take the literal location definition of the Great Plains for the above, as in context, it is referring to the central part of the country. Other references in the forecast are broad such as East and West and North West ;-)]

A quick look at the October and November snow totals between 2007 and this year for Marquette shows that this year is already ahead of last year, and that is not counting the additional two feet of snow expected in the next few days there.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mqt

Specific to Marquette, I would not be at all suprised to see them exceed last years snowfall. In fact, the expected snowfall in the next few days alone would match the 30 yr average snowfall total expected for the ENTIRE MONTH.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/normals/marquette.php

Lake effect snow may be wicked this year for those normally impacted by this..but I digress, that is a thought for another time. ;-)

Guess we will wait for the better answer for our area here on NBC Action News on Monday at 10PM. Stay tuned...

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

EdRoberts — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:52:55 GMT

@kcwxguy

Hey Scott, while it certainly looks like the Great Lakes may continue to have persistent cold weather (and lake effect snow threats), keep in mind that this was also a slightly cooler summer for these same areas. Lake temperatures are lower than what they would typically be for this time of the year. This makes a HUGE difference in lake effect snows. Had it been a hot summer, those 30 inches could have been significantly more. Also, keep in mind that Marquette averages over 140 inches of snow a year with snow on the ground from Thanksgiving through late March. Getting 30 inches at a time is not horribly unusual.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

kane1970 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:06:36 GMT

okay here is my guess, since Gary picked the 12-3 it will probably snow 1"-2". Then I think that the 5th and sixth look pretty interesting maybe double that amount. However I think the storm on 11-29 through 12-1 may give Gary a run for his money. (dout it will be an inch though.) I picked the 27th of this month, not sure what time. It was something odd though like 3:27 and 26 seconds I think. lol. Well I can't wait for the forecast next MONDAY on NBC at 10:00pm!!!!!!! Watch it!!!!!!!!! Or some one may whip out a can of LRC on you.

Done with the rambling. ╡↔º╕½◄+↓│ÜÆ♀∟↔§├A▓▒≡◘φ ╪φ╩☻ò

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

kane1970 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:31:25 GMT

Okay I have a question........ lets say I was playing around with things and I wondered if a few days ago we got 1" of rain how would I turn that into a snow fall amount?Thanks.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

WeatherCop2112 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:39:43 GMT

Anytime snow is predicted more than a day or two out I take it with a huge grain of salt. I am almost always proved right. Even with the latest technology and the LRC I've found that modern forecasting, when it comes to anything further out than about 48 hours, is fairly worthless.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:44:03 GMT

It does not look like my guess of an inch of snow on the 23rd will work out. Oh well, winning the bling would have been fun but I don't think it is meant to be. Hopefully the snow will wait until after Thanksgiving. We are having some friends over from the northland and I would hate for them to have to put up with dangerous driving conditions just for a Thanksgiving meal.
Audra

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Nick Rau — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:44:25 GMT

Well another Canadian high dropping almost straight down on us tonight, yes definitely some very cold air this winter... but when will "October" come back...;)

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Snow Day — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:09:46 GMT

Thanksgiving could get interesting

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

DaveC — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:35:31 GMT

nick, oct will be in 11 more months. :)

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

kcwxguy — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:20:34 GMT

WeatherCop - Interesting post. It leads into another whole discussion, but in a nutshell, predicting amounts of snow is a nightmare, even when just hours away.

It is easier to say that in summer that it will rain or it won't, and generally, folks don't care about how much..unless it is excessive or causes flood conditions. .50 inches or .25 inches is not a huge factor generally. In Winter, that is the difference of about 2-6 inches.

With snow, having ratios of generally 8:1 and above, predicting how much snow requires a much greater level of precision in forecasting to get it right...

That is why you often see ranges for snow. Precision vs. accuracy in Winter time becomes a greater topic than Summer.

To that end, using the LRC will give you better ideas as to where storms may track, dig, intensify and lift as well as precipitation pattern trends - and long range, much better guidence on location and storm behaviors based on the expected tracks.

Is the LRC or any other model perfect? Clearly not, but would say..even with all the data available, it takes a talented meteorologist to interpret all of the facets to come up with a reliable forecast. The data and theories are one thing, but translating them to a forecast is another thing.

;-)

;-)

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

Alden — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:42:08 GMT

http://bottomlinecom.com/currentnews/kshbsratingsclimb.html

Congrats! I know, off topic of the weather. So, it's cold outside, and it's time for snow!

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Alden,

Thanks! It is about time. The November numbers are more important. They don't come in until mid-December.

Gary

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 23:15:47 GMT

It's cold outside today and the wind runs right through you when you go outside.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 23:45:22 GMT

Congrats Gary, and the rest of the news team!!!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

LRCfan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 23:51:03 GMT

Congratulations to the nbcactionnews weather and sports for your ratings I watch all your newscasts especially the 10pm news for your "New Data". I would love to see some snow sometime soon Gary.

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

A dogg — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:00:30 GMT

Kane, I picked the 27th too! It looks close for us, but we may just miss out!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

twister11 — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:14:06 GMT

save the snow for later please! now that i have to work and drive in it, it bites! Gary you r crazy!

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

yewtrees — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 02:54:29 GMT

Here is the US winter outlook for 2008-2009 released today by NOAA

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081120_winteroutlook.html

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Winterfan — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:12:07 GMT

I doubt that NOAA goes off the LRC. We'll see how they compare come Monday night.

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

rymac — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:16:59 GMT

Gary,
It's been a while sinced i've posted, but i guess it's time to again.
First, i really feel like we are in for a dry winter. i think we still haven't seen a complete cycle. which means it's a long one this year. and we really haven't seen any good precip events... much more later, ryan in COLD chillicothe

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I actually am leaning way against your thinking. Thanks for checking in, and we will talk much more in the next few days.

Gary

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

KansasPatriot — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:17:47 GMT

So I am assuming the warmer temps mean a lot of moisture coming up from the south and that would explain a wetter than average winter?

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

pvt_murphy — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 06:39:03 GMT

the gfs has trended real warm with that after-thanksgiving event gary, although it is the gfs a week out. so its probably meaningless anyway. what do you think about what the last few runs have put out for the latter quarter of the extended range? obviously the jet wont likely assume that shape, but if it does that would be a first for me to witness an odd shape like that. thats some wild rollercoaster its riding. if it holds true, the first week of december could be real cold, huh? not only that but the last couple frames have what would be considered an epic storm for our parts...with a second punch that looked close on its heels. an 'ol 1-2 punch down the road perhaps? needless to say, it looks different than what has happened so far at any latitude this season. per your theory it wont likely unfold that way then...

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The data this morning is colder. So, just wait and see how it sets up.

Gary

re: Early Holiday Forecast & the LRC....November 20, 2008

Nick Rau — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 07:19:47 GMT

My digital thermometer at my house is reading 22.5 degrees F., wow the highs are getting colder and colder. My computer is having issues so I am making short posts.

re: Early Holiday Forecast &amp; the LRC....November 20, 2008

billinlawrence — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:39:49 GMT

Gary:

Good winters type morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 17 degrees under a crystal clear sky-it is just beautiful out this morning!!! There is something about running on a morning like this-it is just awesome!!! That being said, 17 degrees on November 21st is cold-not shattering cold, but for sure cold-but man I love it!!

I think one thing that we have seen for sure since early October is that there will be at times cold air avaialbale for this pattern-will it and the moisture time out correctly-that as always in this area is a big variable but in my very humble uneducated weather opinion, we at least have them-there have been so many winters over the years where we did not have them both-can't have snow without moisture and cold air so at least have some of the ingredients present this year. The other ingredient I really feel we have is the possibility of 1-2 4 corner lows this season-we have already seen a few and i think that could make it very interesting at times.

Again, as I have blogged, I think the word this winter will be volitile-extreme cold followed by massive blow torches and vice/versa. I really think it is going to be a fantastic ride this winter-one where a hobbyist like me can learn so much and one also where an obsessive snow lover as myself is going to be hugely dissappointed at times (e.g. St. Louis gets blasted and we get a few flurries and 10 degrees with patchy clouds!!!) but then at times will be giddy as I build another igloo!!! I never set my expectations very high-we just do not live in the best snow producing region-so many factors have to come together that sometimes I am amzed it ever snows here at all!! Just a couple decent snow events some cold and I am happy-I have been burned too many times as a kid living in this area that I have tempered my expectations-but still like a kid, I hope every year is the year we get the big one LOL!! I do think this pattern has the possibility of producing one major major winter weather event for this region.

Finally, Scott said something above that I really think is important: When it comes down to it at the end of the day, the most important aspect about weather is how one interprets the data and then passes it along to the public-Gary, you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff do such an outstanding job at this and I think sometimes that gets passed over. To me, that is why you guys are the best-you work so hard looking at the data but then just as important, you present it to the public in a way people can understand and then here you discuss it in detail and help a hobbyist as myslef understand it better and learn. In doing all this, the whole team's passion for weather comes across and that is so refreshing for me-not sure if this makes sense or not, but I really think Scott made an important point: the way you interpret the data and then pass it it along is to me what makes you and the team such a special group.

Well, I was just going to stop by and say hello and discuss how great the cold air was this morning-oops-War and Peace again!!! I guess I am back!!!!! LOL

Have a fantastic day-I am looking forward to following this winter as I think it will hold at times even more excitement than last winter and then at times I can get a tan!!! LOL

Bill the babbler is back in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thank you so much! I can't tell you how much I appreciate your compliment this morning. It takes a lot of time, work, effort, and also enjoyment in writing the blog entries every day. So, thank you again!

We will finally get our winter forecast out there next week. And, then the discussions will pick up as we identify this rather strange, but exciting and energetic weather pattern. I agree, there is a lot of potential.

Gary

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