Model trends...December 2, 2008

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

marlina10 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:34:13 GMT

Nooo! I want snow!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Emmysmom — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:42:48 GMT

I know we are in KC : ) but what is the potential for bad weather up near Lincoln/Nebr City? My mom drives to work from Lincoln to Nebr City around 6:00 in the morning and I was just curious as to what this storm is predicted to do up there. Since there is nothing like you wonderful meterologist and this wonderful blog up there, I turn to you!! : ) (Did that help? lol)

And while I will be thankful not to see much snow tomorrow, my nearly 3 year old daughter will probably not. She has been very excited about the snow since she saw it when we were driving back into town Sunday night.

--------------------------

There may be 1 to 2 inches from Omaha to Des Moines. Some slick spots are possible, but not a huge storm.

Gary

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Randy KD0FFO — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:06:10 GMT

http://test.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx

Looks like the snowflake contest will continue

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Randy KD0FFO — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:09:50 GMT

looks like our next chance could be on monday

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:29:09 GMT

Gary,

Do you think that they will out the Weather Channel as a digital station just like weather plus? I love the local weather, I just want a National Weather too, and maybe a few half-hour to hour long weather shows. :)

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:29:54 GMT

I think we should disregard the 18z data, not really a surprise that the models are doing this. :)

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

cstowell — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:08:53 GMT

Gary,
Great job as always, I enjoy your teams forecast the most.
I work for a local public entity and we are required to plow snow. Whats the odds of 2 inches or more on or around christmas. Hate to miss christmas with the kids but work is work.
Keep up the good work
Thanks
Chris Stowell

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Kcchamps — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:14:09 GMT

andrew,

wut is your feelings regarding tomorrows snow chances? it seems to me that we wont kno really until the overnight data

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

juba — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:43:22 GMT

Here's a nice warm snoack for the winter!

Cheezy Mini Pizza's:
You will need:

Pizza Sauce
English Muffins
White large pre-shredded cheese
Any other desired pizza toppings

1) Cut english muffins in half. Put on cookie sheet
and broil in oven until lightly browned.
2) Take muffins of cookie sheet and put on cutting
board. Decorate with sauce and white cheese, add
any other toppings if desired.
3)Put back into oven, whatch closley. Take pizza's
out when the cheese starts to bubble a lot or when
lightly browned. (Looks like a pizza!)
4) Let cool for a minute then eat while warm for best tastes.
5)Enjoy!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

f00dl3 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:55:53 GMT

I for one would be happy if it does not snow on Christmas or New Years, since I have to work both those days. However, it can snow all it wants between the 20th and 23rd, and the 27th and 30th.

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:56:44 GMT

KCChamps,

It seems to me that 24hrs or so before the event the models start being all weird- if you know what I mean.

I think we do need to wait for the overnight data, and of course wake up tomorrow and see what happens!

And we can't really use the LRC since we are still a little unsure about the cycle.

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

DPannell — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:03:05 GMT

Yahooooo!!!! "no snow, no snow"!!!!!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

WEATHERdude — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:09:02 GMT

lol im with andrew here... (like i really know anything) but i hope these models are WRONg!

and thanks juba, haha :D

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

chiefsfan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:28:07 GMT

Good Evening Gary: Do you think tomorrow (Wed) will be alot like Saturday;Sunday, do you think the road will be wet or snow cover? Thanks for your time and keep up the accurate forecast!!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

dpatel — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:38:11 GMT

Hey gary when do you expect the next major snow storm that could bring us freezing rain/ sleet or 3-5 inches of snow? Any chances before Dec.19? Thanks and keep up the good work!!!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Johnk24 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:04:26 GMT

It looks like the storm is starting to organize a little, if it stays organized do you think we will get more?

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

nicknack — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:09:54 GMT

On November 17th I said there was a connection with the Oct. 14-16th storm and we could get snow around Nov. 27-28th. It did rain the 28th and snow on the 29th. I called for some snow on December 3rd and another chance for snow around December 13th on my blog on November 18th when I thought we were in a 44 day cycle. I still think we are going to some snow tomorrow just not 1 inch. If we are in this cycle I still think around Dec. 13th and Dec. 26th is our best chances for 1 inch. My guess for the contest for the 1 inch was Dec. 26th.

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Kcchamps — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:19:02 GMT

here is a good link for those of you who try to stay up to date regarding weather http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

billinlawrence — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:50:16 GMT

Gary:

Good evening to you sir!! Very nice evening out for sure-a bit chilly with the breeze but very nice!!

Well, here we go-a couple random observations-as always, I hope they make some sense!!

1. Man-on the 2Z surface charts one can sure see the front in Central Nebraska-I love it!!! Such a small thing, but man it is so fun to watch the prgression of a strong front!! There are some 25-30 MPH wind gusts back in North Central Nebraska right now-looks like tomorrow the hats may wind up in Oklahoma LOL!!!

2. The satelite imagery I think is very intereresting tonight as I think it really shows what the models are picking up on. You can see the energy in the SW spreading into South Western Kansas ( I think??) and it was indeed trying to head NE but man, the flow from the NW and the progression of the front is just smacking that SW energy all over the place-kind of like Mario Super Smash Brothers Brawl!! It is really being suppressed and by the looks of radar having a real tough time producing much. My hope was that this energy would have held back a little and not started to move really until the front was through and then kind of ride up the front-unfortunately it looks like both the front and this energy are trying to race to Joplin but the front looks like it will win-one thing about cold air this time of year-when it gets rolling there isn't much between here and Canada to stop it!! LOL

2. Satelite Part II and radar: There does appear on satelite and also on radar some lift being created with the front so we may at least get something from the sky as it passes and little behind it-just as the models are kind of showing currently.

3. Satelite 3: If the other two points are going out on a limb which they are, this one is hanging by the last leaf on the limb: there looks to be some more energy beginning to rotate around SW Arizona currently and there are some showers around Phoeinix at the moment-I just wonder if maybe this, if it is indeed really there, may not latch onto the front and still maybe give us little better lift tomorrow-will maybe the 0z model runs show this? Like I said, this point is way out there, but there does look to be some more energy trying to form in Arizona on the latest satelite.

In the end, as always, it is just great to have something to follow and more importantly something with which to learn from. It is always fun to follow these situations and even though our chances of getting anything more than some flurries as the cold air really sets in, it is still fun to poke around and think you see something even if it isn't there!!! I think one of the best things tonight is watching the front play Super Smash Brothers Brawl with that little lobe of energy in the SW-man the satelite image is worth a thousand words!!!!

I hope some of this makes sense-it is great to be getting back into the weather game-things have finally calmed down somehwat from this crazy past 2 months that I can actually look at a few things.

Have a great night-and like today hold onto your hat tomorrow!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:01:23 GMT

I still think the models are on a lunch break!

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Winterfan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:02:20 GMT

You have one of the toughest jobs there are. Good Luck on the snow prediction

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

chiefsfan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:37:54 GMT

Hello Gary; Do you think tomorrow will be alot like Sat, Sun, do you think the road will be wet or snow covered?

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

davidmcg — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:38:57 GMT

Ah come on Gary don't be depressed. You'll get your big snowstorm one day in the future. Just be patient and while your excited, some of us will be very upset at the white gift.

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

bewild79 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:42:06 GMT

didnt you say that last time andrew?

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

KansasPatriot — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:49:56 GMT

At the speed this thing is moving there isnt enough time for it to hang around to enjoy any real snow amounts. Looks like the great lakes area gets all the fun this year.

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

billinlawrence — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:56:43 GMT

Just me again-the front is for sure on the move tonight. At 3Z the front has passed or is right on the door step of Omaha and has passed through Goodland, Kansas. It has progressed a fairly good distance in the last hour-man it is fun to follow these things!! Of course, it doesn't take much in weather to get me excited!!! LOL

Have a great night

Bill following the front in Lawrence

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

LRCfan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:01:24 GMT

We will get a major winter storm this month some time not tomorrow though we must be patient and wait :(

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

WEATHERdude — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:23:20 GMT

nice entry there bill... lol i like the layman's termonology of the observations, lol

may i ask what satellite that you use? lol i cant really seem to find a good one :D

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:25:16 GMT

Gary,

You think the models are right? Is this you gut feeling?

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

billinlawrence — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:36:36 GMT

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 34 degrees this morning with just a slight wind from the NW-I have a feeling that our temps. aren't going to rise very much beyond this today!!!

Looking at the 11Z surface charts, the front has for sure cleared the area and I think it is sitting right on Fort Scott's door step. Looking at the winds, Manhattan observed a 35 MPH wind gust from the NW so I think our winds will really begin to pick up here in the next hour or so. I think the other interesting thing is that the front has dove far into Kansas but it has yet to barely clear Jefferson City, Missouri. My little hobbyist mind is just wondering if this front gest kind of hung up in Missouri is that maybe it will help us "squeeze" out a bit more snow shower activity later today than if it just blew all the way into Arkansas and Oklahoma. For sure, this is not a precip. maker by any stretch of the imagination and both satelite and models (RUC) show any energy from the SW being suppressed big time by the front but if the front kind of hangs up a bit in central Missouri just maybe we can squeeze out something not even as big as Sunday but maybe something like Saturday morning. Does this even make sense-I am probably just grasping at straws again!!! LOL

Whatever the case, this front has been fun to follow and it for sure has punch as there are some 10 degree readings back into the Dakotas and the winds in North Central Kansas are blowing pretty good right now. By this afternoon, the cold will be felt!!!!

Glancing quickly beyond Saturday, the Euro, GFS, and the GFS Ensembles are still hinting at some interesting weather for next week. It is still so early to really even think specifics but there is sure alot of agreement that there will be something in this time frame. With what little time I have had to really look at the LRC, I think what the models are showing/hinting at for next week is right on schedule!!

As always thanks for reading-it is so appreciated!! I am going to enjoy the change today-enjoy the cold winds and look for some flakes falling-any flakes this time of year to me are great!!!! I mean Lawrence's average high is still in the middle 40's for this date so any flakes are appreciated!! The GFS does spit out a little qpf so something should fall from the sky today!!!

Have a great day!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

billinlawrence — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:43:35 GMT

Gary:

Just me again-one more little random observation: just as I finished typing the winds have really began to pick up here-there she blows!!!!!

Oh and the radar looks incredibly paltry this morning!!

Have a great day-I think my hat will be in Oklahoma City by this afternoon!!

Bill in Lawrence

----------------

Bill,

Yes, this is very sad for snow enthusiasts. Hopefully a bigger storm will show up soon.

Gary

re: Model trends...December 2, 2008

juba — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:28:32 GMT

I think we're all in denial but I think the models are wrong too. ;-)