Colder air moving in...any snow?

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

juba — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:38:04 GMT

The snow seems to be moving in after the front. Is this going to make it snow more?

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Juba,

The snow is lagging behind the front, and not very impressive. Let's keep tracking it as we may barely end up with one or two hours of a few snowflakes. I wouldn't be shocked if it did snow hard for a very short period of time, but not enough for any accumulation.

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

boootz — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:52:55 GMT

Well, the cold line has definately reached Leavenworth and along with it winds that are gusting strong enough to bring down tree branches and send my trampoline cart wheeling across the yard, with wind like this, it won't matter if it snows, it will all end up along the south fence rows anyways...lol

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Good point, even if it does snow it will jus blow into the south sides. I hope to see a few snowflakes flying around this afternoon, but I am not even convinced of this.

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kane1970 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:08:28 GMT

I can't believe it..... Gary picked the wrong date for the snowfall contest.LOL Well When are you going out of town next Gary. Monday? LOL. Anyway. Just wondering what are your thoughts on on this little system in relation to the LRC. Thanks for giving such great info on this snow chance. I really felt like it might not be much based on your comments. Thank you.

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You can tell when I am excited about the snow potential, and when I am not. It is too bad that today wasn't slightly different. This trended away from snow and is not going back.

I am actually off the next three days! So, I will be taking a break, analyzing the data and figuring out what this weather pattern is doing. I still expect a more signifcant storm within the next two weeks.

Have a great day!

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

95rred — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:57:15 GMT

I am getting worried, this month will be over befor we know it and we cant even end the 1 inch snowflake contest. If we dont get at least one good accumlating snow by christmas I would say we are not in the right spot for a snowy winter.

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I would say your assessment is correct. If it doesn't snow 1 inch by Christmas something is very, very wrong about this weather pattern for our winter hopes. But, that's if it doesn't snow 1 inch by Christmas. Let's see how it feels next week.

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

sedsinkc — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:33:52 GMT

Not surprised at the snowflake contest continuing...wondering if my guess will also end up being too early....but can't remember what my guess was because I didn't write it down! What a dumb thing (not) to do.

NW flow looks to continue to be a dominant feature for several days to come, meaning little chance of snow for KC as chances will stay mainly well NE of KC, and those accums will be light except in the Lake Effect belts.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kane1970 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:16:34 GMT

Okay. I just looked at the GFS Long range and I am not seeing any storms for KC. They all look like they are going to form just east of us. Then become much bigger storms. In regards to the LRC what do you know that can say that the models are off. Is there something that is going to change? Or is there something that the models are missing? Looking for some insight. Even the time around the 10th doesn't look that promising. The 18th looks like the best bet. But still not that great. Is there a way (I) can use the LRC to figure out where it is off. I hope you can understand what I am asking.

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The GFS is completely different every 6 hours. I am expecting a much stormier solution today or tomorrow. The models likely will continue to struggle for another few days, but we are still anticipating a stormier stretch ahead as we move through December.

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kane1970 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:17:03 GMT

Should I have put that on LRCweather.com???????

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

jpyle — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:33:46 GMT

It is lightly snowing in Troy, Kansas. I just peeked out of my basement classroom. It sure looks pretty outside!

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Thanks for the report. I will be updating the blog soon as the band of snow drifts our way. Will it make it through Kansas City?

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kcwxguy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:09:43 GMT

Kane1970 -

There is an explanation for what you observe..it is called modelitis. It runs rampid this time of year. Fortunately, there is a cure. It is a revolutionary new approach for curing confusion, depression, and uncertainty during this and other times of year.

It is the LRC. I recommend everyone take a shot!

;-)

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

f00dl3 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:10:27 GMT

I'm just curious - Gary seemed to think we were going to get a pretty good winter, and alot of other stations were even going on the same ballgame - with Gary stating 20-25", and "another station" had 3/4 of their team members say ~27", and one state around 19".

The way I see it, with the longwave set up the way it is this year, all we are going to get is these small run-of-the-mill clippers, or maybe an occasional brief snow shower as storms intensify just to our east and then dump on northeast MO / southeast IA, and northern IL.

I was initially thinking 21.5" tops a few days ago, but after looking at our weather pattern I am seeing things that to me raise a red flag that we may barely even get 10" this winter - although areas in NE MO and just north of St. Louis may get closer to 40".

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

DPannell — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:13:19 GMT

Still counting on my January first one inch of snow prediction!!! "no snow, no snow" ;)
--deb

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

f00dl3 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:24:48 GMT

Just curious - has Kansas City ever had a winter with no 1"+ snowfalls?

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kane1970 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:32:11 GMT

I will be patient. I will take My LRC shot. I have no idea what i am doing but i am having fun trying lol. Thanks.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

stjoelawyer — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:39:45 GMT

Well we have a coating with SN falling SN+ in a little bit. I could see an inch up here that with the 1.7 over the weekend could give us unofficially 2.7 . . . officially ZERO. Same story as last year.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

TeacherInStJoe — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:42:37 GMT

Snowing in St. Joseph. It coming down pretty fast for the moment. There are some larger flakes too. The roof outside my classroom is covered along with a dusting now on sidewalks. I wonder how long this will last. If the wind wasn't blowing so hard, it would make for a pretty scene.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

Andrew_Stafford — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:44:45 GMT

I'm starting to like the radar trends!!

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

pvt_murphy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:55:06 GMT

flurries flying at fort leavenworth. the radar echoes are expanding, im holding you to your .004" accumulation gary! something interesting is that its snowing before the band on the radar is approaching. that tells me its going to be some pretty heavy snow once it comes.

i still believe that while our actual snowfall may be close to average for the season(due to slightly cooler than avg. temps) that we will be below average as far as QPF goes this winter.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

jpyle — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:56:40 GMT

It is now snowing pretty good now...I had to leave the building for a bit and some of the roadways were a bit slick. Gary I hope you get to see a few flakes...Have a great afternoon!

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

pvt_murphy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:01:05 GMT

upgrade those flurries to light snow

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Keep us updated as you are now going into the more significant snow.

Gary

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

weathermom — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:10:16 GMT

This thing looks EXACTLY like powercast said it would last night....great forcast, weatherteam. Not enough people point days like this out, IMO. When you get it wrong, everyone complains, but when it's so spot on, nobody seems to notice. I'm talking about the general public, not the bloggers. Great work.

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

mattmaisch — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:12:27 GMT

12Z GFS seems to be getting its act together. Early next week looks very interesting on that model with several more storm chances through the period. Monday thru Wednesday looks like it COULD provide the first winter storm of the season to someone in Kansas or Missouri. Will be interesting to track...

Matt

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

kane1970 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:39:07 GMT

NEW BLOG

re: Colder air moving in...any snow?

Randy KD0FFO — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:52:37 GMT

Law enforcement reported one inch.

In Maryville, just less than a quarter of an inch.

Chillicothe, about to get snowed on right now. I will be home later from Maryville and have a total than.