Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

chfs327 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:35:51 GMT

well its 7:35...

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

K10K7 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:36:43 GMT

Good Morning Gary, any indications yet on how long this one will stick around and if there is any precip during that time frame?

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It is very difficult to say, but if we go by what we have had the past few weeks I think there will be some big ups and downs, but more downs in the coming weeks. Everything should come together for a couple of big storms.

Gary

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Meegosh85 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:56:06 GMT

after following your forecasts enough to materially affect productivity, i have come to the conclusion that observing weather is not enough. what can we (and by that i mean you) do to actively make it snow here in kansas city? i respectfully suggest that you make that your next meteorological accomplishment.
thank you

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To make it snow here you have to have patience! So, if everyone can just hold on and enjoy the winter ride, then the snow will come. If it is going to get very, very cold, it will have to snow.

Gary

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

boootz — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:59:11 GMT

Holy Frozen Water Bowls is it ever cold outside, my truck was slugish starting, my cats and dogs didn't even come out to visit me this morning and to top it off Gary issues a Artic Air Watch.....Bah Humbug....

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

bewild79 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:08:35 GMT

aahhh boootz,
just puts you in the holiday spirit!

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

sedsinkc — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:32:09 GMT

Glad to see the thrust of this Arctic air mass is predicted to be into the Great Lakes and not due south through all the Plains states. Can't stand Arctic cold, esp. in Texas. After a short visit to KC over this weekend, driving back to Tx Monday AM so hopefully no icy roads.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

sedsinkc — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:34:08 GMT

Cold enough here this AM at 26. Folks here are complaining about the cold and the predicted high today is 50!

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

bewild79 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:35:01 GMT

Gary,
Did I hear right that a storm could give us some trouble for Monday? Are you just going to go into it more later?
Becky

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

sedsinkc — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:50:49 GMT

If Arctic high pressure continues to strengthen to the 1060+mb range over NW Canada after the time frame shown in your forecast maps above, it's almost inevitable that the Arctic air will eventually reach southern Plains. Maybe it'll bring some snow or ice with it.

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If the Arctic air can get down here, then we are likely going to see more than one good chance of a snowstorm. This pattern will get energized. So, the weather is likely about to get super exciting. I hope so.

Gary

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Chickadee — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:56:54 GMT

Is it going to snow here late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning? We are going on a much-anticipated trip with a tight layover and are nervous about the flight being late.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

stormlover — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:17:03 GMT

BRR-BRR-BRR...my animals don't like this weather but it sure brings the birds to the feeders...along with the deer & squirrels...everyone is hungry in the cold

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Kelli — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:20:13 GMT

Come on, snow!!! I need some snow!

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

KCGladstone — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:58:27 GMT

Gary,

What are the prospects of snow from Thursday, the 11th to Sunday the 15th? I know thats 7-10 days out for you but I am going north to Sioux City to celebrate the holidays with my family then. I am driving up I-29 and need to know if I should be prepared for the bad stuff driving. *************** This time of year it is always good to be prepared for bad weather. I would just suggest having a little flex time for any travel plans from now until Christmas. Generally is a storm is around you can either leave a little early or late and should be fine. Jeremy

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

frigate — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:14:20 GMT

No snow...there have already been several fatalies due to bad road conditions, so I'm already counting the days to spring!!!!

Jeff

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:33:53 GMT

I am ready for 2-3' of Snow!! What's the biggest Snowfall amount the KC Metro has ever gotten? Has it ever been 2 Ft or more?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

kcroyals05 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:35:20 GMT

Umm, possible snow for Monday?? Would that be in the morning say 8:40?? Looking forward to the wild ride Gary. Love the winter....

Bill

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

f00dl3 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:38:24 GMT

I think the snow will hold off until late Monday if not Tuesday based on latest model trends - the system is slowing down - but who knows?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

reafamily — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:49:08 GMT

We had 26-28 inches of snow from a single storm 2 years ago in the Butler-Adrian area. It was great! Much better than the ice storms we have been getting. At least we didn't lose power that time. I am excited about the snow and cold next week, but have tickets to the Chiefs/Chargers game. :( I am guessing Carharts and sweaters will be the dress code for that game.

Pat

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Nick Rau — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 17:44:06 GMT

Just wanted to say that I have seen a few snow flakes here in St. Joe as some low clouds are pushing in!!! So it is official now, an Arctic Air Watch;) So what are the dimensions of the watch box?;)

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

NorthlandGirl — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 17:44:28 GMT

KCGladstone - I'm a Sioux City girl myself and will be traveling up the 29 funway the following weekend. It can get rather tricky this time of year, and I've had to cancel or change many a trip over the years. Sending you good vibes for clear weather and safe travels!

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Andrew_Stafford — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:09:58 GMT

Nick,

From The Canadian Border to Oklahoma, East and West are the dimensions!! :D

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

VdoManZ — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:10:22 GMT

Andrew, the biggest snowstorm I remember in KC was in 1991 we had around 16" to 18" in kc with 1/2 inch of ice on top of that! I was still in school so it was nice to be home for a week, but I'm pretty sure it shut the city down for a few days.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

weatherfreak01 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:26:24 GMT

So, do you guys figure I should stock up on food this weekend? I always like to stock up on food when bad weather approches so I don't have to drive in it. Or do you think we won't get lots of snow on Monday night? Like most people, I would rather stay in a nice and warm house than willingly go out and freeze. What is nice about Winter is that if you loose your power, you don't have to worry about your food thawing, just stick it outside! :-) I, for one, cook on Natural gas, so even if the power goes bye bye, I can still cook dinner for the family.
Audra

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

kane1970 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:38:49 GMT

Does any one have any early predictions on snowfall amounts?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

kcwxguy — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:44:29 GMT

Looking at several models, I am not thinking the GFS has the upcoming event quite right. I think it is too fast, the path is a bit too far east as I expect it to dig up out of the long term longwave more NE faster, and I am not feeling it is representing the ULL near the Canadian border quite right.

Will be interesting to watch.

Looking at the 14th on the GFS..right pattern, wrong time. It is way to fast on this setup per the pattern.

For fun, watch the energy building near the Aleutians..and the subsequent cold air coming in the ridging between. Once this GL trough does swing out and the built up vorticity drops into the Western Conus, it could be a doozy - and have cold air in place.

Just in time for...

;-)

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

kcwxguy — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:45:19 GMT

I think I am going to be bullish on snow for this storm.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

KC_Hams — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:04:00 GMT

Meaning single digits for the high temp? *gulp*

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

bewild79 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:20:20 GMT

So is this supposed to be some monster storm early next week?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

kane1970 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:34:34 GMT

Well I am going to go ahead and brace my self for the reall possibility that I will have to go out and plow that white stuff away. I think I may even go buy a sled for the kids. I am not going to stock up on food though. I will go shop when I need to and not before. No reason to get crazy now.lol

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

KansasPatriot — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:47:35 GMT

Is this easter trough weather pattern going to be dominate in December? I am more in favor of the split flow pattern with those storms coming from the southwest.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

KansasPatriot — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:52:10 GMT

So basically, this is the first winter for the LRC theory? The data collected from this fall, and the winter will really put things into perspective hopefully.

Once the LRC theory is tested and proven then next winter in Kansas City would the be that much more predictable I am assuming.

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No, we have been using the LRC for many years. And, in the past three years we have been making more specific forecasts based on the theory. So, this winter is not the first year we are testing with the LRC.

Gary

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

KansasPatriot — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:19:55 GMT

Thanks Gary, I wasnt sure how refined the theory or how much it had been tested. Have other meteoroligists started to observe your findings and perhaps use them in their own forecasting?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

juba — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:29:24 GMT

This is my first year to see a lot about the LRC, but this loos like the eastern trough.l

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

chfs327 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:28:43 GMT

Hey Are you saying Single Digits for highs or Lows. If for Highs... Look Out

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I think that was probably for lows.

Jeremy

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

sweetness — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:33:44 GMT

I for one think that the reason we are having fatalities is because people dont slow down when it does get bad. Just me theory though. So Gary what do you think on snow? Ive lived im Missouri my whole 16 years of life lol and the only real BIG snow storms ive gotten was when i lived in the country. I still kinda do now but what are you thinking? And on the cold air bring it on i love the cold weather perfect thing for football.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

bellgolfMU12 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:36:21 GMT

kcwxguy,
are you saying that areas to the east of the metro (sedalia, marshall, adn columbia) are looking at a better chance of snow?

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Brent — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:52:16 GMT

"A storm could affect us on Monday. Our first inch of snow should happen within ten days, possibly within three or four days."

too bad the snow is out of the forecast...this has to be the most boring winter ever....we usually have some snow by now....I guess Harrisonville is just going to miss out again this year? does it look like northeast will get hit this year more than south?

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Brent,

Good catch on that. The snow is not out of the forecast. Still a good chance(40%) late Monday into Tuesday. Jeff Penner and I were trying to make the 7 day appear more accurate for the newscasts. In trying to do so we turned off the precip. for a moment and the auto update computer posted the 7 day forecast automatically. It grabbed an image that had no snow on it:) We will fix that right away. Thanks for noticing that.

Jeremy

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

mattmaisch — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:59:45 GMT

Brent you beat me to the punch on that one. I was wondering the same thing. I just looked at the new GFS and then saw the forecast and wondered what I was missing. Glad to know the chance of snow is still in there...

Matt

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The graphic should be updated on the site now.

Jeremy

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

Luthur — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 23:09:58 GMT

"this has to be the most boring winter ever"

It isn't even Winter yet. The average date for our first inch of snow hasn't happened yet. Patience, young grasshopper.

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

WEATHERdude — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 01:19:55 GMT

YEAH! lol artic air watch! lol it seems that the arctic air has already arrived... its really cold out there, plus that wonderful wind doesnt help, but i dont really mind it all that much, better than sweltering heat :D

and i see the GFS has already changed that far out, earlier, those cold temps werent dipping down as far south as us, i guess i shouldnt be surprised for the change, lol happens all the time. but wow, its been a while since ive seen single digits

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

bewild79 — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 01:44:18 GMT

if I looked right, it looks like the snow for tues is the only chance for a while. The model had the big chance around the 13 and now I dont see it

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I wouldn't worry too much past 4-5 days with the GFS. It will put big storm in and then take them out. There is a lot of model error each day out from the initialization.

Jeremy

re: Arctic Air Watch...December 4, 2008

LRCfan — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 01:46:22 GMT

Snow Creek ought to be making plenty of snow with these cold temperatures,maybe they will get some real snow next week :)