Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances...UPDATED

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

rstull — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 00:12:03 GMT

I know that I am outside of your viewing area, but here in Hutchinson since recording 1.06 inches of rain on Nov. 10, we have only had 0.48 of moisture. That includes a grand total of 0.06 out of the last storm on Dec. 27, so I know how frustrating it is to get dry-slotted 90-95% of the time.

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The storms sometimes barely catch Kansas City and then form/strengthen east of here. So I hear what you are saying about being moisture starved.

Even though you are outside the viewing area it is good to hear from people all over the country!

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

rstull — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 00:33:03 GMT

I used to live in Lawrence while going to school so I know of Gary Lezak and the team. That is some mighty bone-chilling air in Alaska and NW Canada with temps near -50!!

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

Ipushsnow — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 00:43:15 GMT

This looks like the next two weeks or so will be some quick moving storms with not much rain/snow.
Hopefully we can get some "real" snow soon.

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

marlina10 — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:10:29 GMT

I agree with Ipushsnow. I'm still holding out hope that Gary was right and we will get a couple of storms with impressive snows this winter.

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

farmgirl — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 03:03:10 GMT

Thanks for the warm weather today Jeremy!! It was a glorious day. Went shopping early - needed all kinds of pet food.

And then came home and rode my Buckskin mare in the afternoon. It was soooo nice not to have frozen fingers and toes. Too bad the warm stretch isn't going to last.

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Enjoy tomorrow, the cold stuff comes back in almost full force by Sunday.

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

davidmcg — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:15:12 GMT

Jeremy saw your temp map and you had McLouth highlighted with 42. Now I know a while back I told you I had enough of anything under 50 for a high, if I liked it we would have stayed in and around Minot AFB, ND when I got out of the military. Come to think of it, you being from MN you should have had enough of it. But its there and you know, 42 for this area is not bad this time of year. Even 42 is above average. What is average this time of January, about 37 or so?

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Average high at KCI today was 36. Some areas north of KC will likely stay in the 40s on Saturday, but even that is above average like you mentioned. The big thing is the temp drop headed into Sunday. This season will probably be remembered for the really big temperature drops. The 60 to 4 swing we had several Sunday's ago was the largest one day temp drop I could find in 10 years or more.

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

radman22 — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:22:29 GMT

Have a great Friday night in the Big Town Jeremy. Hope you dont have to work all Saturday and can get out and enjoy the day with your family before the cold stuff works its way in.

Joe

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I might be able to sneak in a outdoor time tomorrow. The NFL games will wipe out our 5 pm show on Saturday.

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

stjoelawyer — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:38:28 GMT

Well ST JOR WAS 5.7 below normal -11 the lowest 5 days below zero this tranquil period will pass artic air will blast in. I am thinking minus teens if we get a snow or two.....just remember Jan is ourr driest month at about an inch of moisture.

GOOD NITE AND MAY GOD BLESS

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

davidmcg — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 08:55:06 GMT

Alright Jeremy, I am going to let my lack of meteorology show here, whats new there. Anyhow, I was looking at the jet stream and snow pack maps. I was doing this because of all the doom and gloom of this upcoming temp swing. I also got a decent look at the lows up over Nebraska, the one in Wyoming and the one way out in Utah. It seeks to me looking at the maps, the jet is in a strong west flow, not northwest. The snowpack has really receded in the last week over Nebraska and East Colorado. At the same time, on the infrared the low in Utah seems to be strengthening and digging just a little further south than what I believe was forecasted to do. Doesn't descending air warm? The air coming off the Rockies will be dropping in altitude, the snowpack for all practical purposes is gone, ground temps there are about the same as ours. That low in Utah won't be here for a couple of days. So is this why you believed most of our moisture Saturday evening will be definitely liquid up until around 12AM Sunday? None of the lows previously mentioned seem to be pulling very much moisture from the south. If anything it looks like they may be pulling dry air off the mountains and snowcaps. So to me that would seem if it falls most will evaporate before reaching the ground here. Well, maybe I confused myself. But, I don't see anything to be concerned about for the next several days. How right or wrong am I?

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

GaryB — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 11:58:08 GMT

Some of our best snows have come in later February and early March where moisture is more abundant. Right now, it doesn't look good for much of anything to happen for most of January, perhaps picking back up towards the end of the month. We've seen this before where we have a decent December to have a lame January only for December to return in February with a stronger attitude.

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

billinlawrence — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 12:33:44 GMT

Jeremy:

Good early March type morning to you!! You can smell the spring in the air this morning!! It is a little damp out but man winter lover though I may be it is very nice out this morning!!

After my Sybil type day yesterday, back to my usual mantra-a few random thoughts/observations this morning and as always, I hope they make some sense!!

1. Looking at the 11Z surface charts, I think the front is into NW Kansas and central and western Nebraska are already in the teens and 20’s. It appears the main surface low is just NW of Goodland, Kansas. Will be fun to track this front today (isn’t it always!! LOL) even though most of the energy will be to our north and east. I am excited to feel the drop in temperatures!!!

2. One thing that I think will be interesting to watch over the next week or so is the temperature swings-in the NW flow we are bound to have fronts and this time they have much colder air to work with than they did in November-southern Alberta this morning is reporting temps. Of minus 17-for sure there is cold air for these fronts!! On the flip side, we will really warm up before they come through-something for everybody!! The 0z GFS was kind of hinting at a clipper digging a bit further south later next week-as a snow lover it has always been my hope that this does occur in this part of the pattern but also, we did have some southern energy stay intact around Thanksgiving so maybe that is what the GFS is beginning to pick up on for later next week.

3. That long wave trough to our east has really delivered the goods!! I am still waiting for that secondary weaker long wave over Oklahoma to decide to come to the party-if it does in the next active cycle, that to me is when we will have a dozy.

4. Speaking of the active cycle and Canada: it was mentioned last night in the Blog how cold it was in Alaska and the NW Territories-I did some checking this morning-Yellowknife has been around minus 40 for the past couple of days and is forecast to stay in that range for a spell-that is about 20 degrees below normal for them. I go fishing on Great Slave Lake and our friends in Yellowknife tell us that when they hit minus 40 that is cold. The true arctic air is indeed building in our source regions for arctic air.

5. If you go back and look at the temperature charts from mid-November through early December, the same scenario was occurring. This time, it is quicker and deeper. The bass are getting ready to bite!!

6. I am probably totally off here but again, the 0z Euro at 10 days is showing height rises in the Gulf of Alaska-that is the second run showing that. Looking back at mid-November, the same thing was occurring. I am again probably totally off here but it looks to my little hobbyist mind that we are seeing signs of the active pattern again setting up.

I have done it again-flapped way too much!!! I hope some of this makes a little bit of sense!! Have a great day and for sure get out and enjoy it-it is going to be a nice day!! I do hope you get to “sneak” out Jeremy and enjoy it today!!!

Take care everybody

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thanks for the thoughts, always great to hear from you. Since I don't drink coffee, your posts help to wake me up with the energy in them:) I'll post a map later but it was -55 in parts of Alaska and in the Yukon this morning. The cold air is building and for those that think the worst of winter is behind us or think it will be mild for long have another thing coming to them. If we were able to get below zero in December, I think those cold fronts may have even more bite in the next 45 days.

This morning does remind me a bit of a March day...or a late April day where I use to live:)

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

GaryB — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 12:40:25 GMT

I clipped out an article several years ago in some local paper in Platte County where the article was about weather extremes. Part of the article was about the "greatest drops in temperatures". Don't really know how this compares to two weeks ago, but here it is:

1992---went from 69.5 to 19.5 in 18 hours --September 10th..... it went on to say during that time it went from 69.5 to 33 in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

1996--(Nov. 11) went from 59 on 11/11 to 12' at 6AM or a 47 degree drop in 8 hours.

1911---went from 76 at 10AM to 11 at midnight for a drop of 65' in 14 hours

1989---(Greatest rise in temp)-- 32.9 at 7AM to 80.2 by 2PM in 7 hrs. 47.3' difference.

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If that is official information from KCI or the former official location this is great! I think our 56 degree temperature drop in December was the 2nd or 3rd largest same day temperature drop in Kansas City history! Pretty significant!

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

billinlawrence — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 13:16:07 GMT

GaryB:

Awesome stuff sir!!! That is great!!

I remember in December of 1989 after we hit -24 the next day we warmed up to just above freezing-the Chiefs played the Steelers that day and won to get into the Playoffs-John Mackovics's last stand!!! We pretty much stayed above freezing the whole month of January 1990-talk about a Sybil winter!!!

One of the most amazing weather stats to me for this area is found in Will Paxton's Annals of Platte County: in the winter of 1843 the whole winter was like summer-had one frost the whole winter. Man as a snow lover if I lived in a winter like that I would put my head through a wall!!! LOL However, if I was trying to get a homestead established I am sure it was fantastic!!!

What an area to live in for weather-when you think about it is pretty awesome!!

Have a great day

Bill in Lawrence

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

Emmysmom — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 16:41:54 GMT

Are you still thinking something will come through on Tuesday? I have a very important appointment on Tuesday morning that I can't miss and I'd prefer not to have to drive in anything more than just light flurries that blow around. Thoughts?

I will say, it has been very nice for the last week -- very liberating -- to not have to check the forecast every hour or so and worry about what precip is heading our way and when. I just wish we wouldn't go back to the every-other-day precip pattern were had been in :(

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I'm not very worried about Tuesday at this point.

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

FlakeFan — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 16:43:12 GMT

7.75" of snow so far this year!

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

FlakeFan — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 16:43:45 GMT

Last year. . . . . .
I ment this winter!

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

davidmcg — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:17:36 GMT

60 right now in McLouth.

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

juba — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:34:14 GMT

Wow, I didn't know it was suppost to warm up to 65 degrees right now and maybe a little warmer later! 65 Degrees and 7.50" of snow at near JoCo Airport! (snow total for season, unfortunatley! lol!)

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

StanzdaMan — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:44:30 GMT

64 here in OP, the first WW of the year, looks weird on the SPC. 1.

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The long link sometimes messes things up with formating. If anyone wants to see the watch just go to spc.noaa.gov

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances

Braysmama — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:47:58 GMT

Temp is 66.4, dew point 54, and winds gusting up to 30mph. Feels like spring! :)

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It does feel like Spring outside! And tomorrow will feel like winter:)

Just wait until this setup comes back around in the Spring...yikes!

Jeremy

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances...UPDATED

radman22 — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 20:04:53 GMT

Nice to see the Kansas City Star using Gary and his LRC in the local section today. They seem to defer to him for the forecast, and who can blame them. I dont think anybody was calling for below normal temps and picked up the Arctic blasts as early as the KSHB team. Will we get 21" of snow?? ... that is the real question. While KCI might qualify for close enough, points south need a decent storm to pump up the totals. It will be shocking not to get hit once this winter with a 6" storm with all the temp swings and active pattern. Then again, the pattern seems to want everything to develop N and NE of KC this year.

Enjoy the great day as we wont see this again for a few weeks :)

re: Another wild temperature swing...precipitation chances...UPDATED

FlakeFan — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 20:06:36 GMT

70 in Southeastern Olathe on my car thermometer! Was not expcting this! Spring.

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I call this a bonus day. I thought it would be warm, but another 10 degrees is just a bonus this time of year!

Jeremy