LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

billinlawrence — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:45:16 GMT

Gary:

Well sir there is one affect as apparent as the LRC: the Get Smart Affect!!! I missed it by that much-we passed each other again in Cyber Space LOL!!! I posted just as you were posting this!! Too funny man!!!

Great blog entry this morning-I am so happy that the LRC is gaining some traction around the weather community. This is the second year now that your forecast has been discussed on the Eastern weather forum (by the way it is probably the most popoular weather froum in the U.S.)-all I can say: it is about time!!!!

Have a great day!!! I'm back to school today with the Rush lyrics from Subdivisions in my head: in the high school halls.....

Bill in Lawrence

---------------

We must have missed each other by seconds. I got up early just to get this on the blog before you awakened. I had posted it before you posted yours, but it just didn't stick to the site yet. I will go and read your other entry.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

LuvsSummer — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 12:27:32 GMT

Gary,

It was so reassuring to open the blog this morning and see that you're ready to present the long range forecast using the LRC and that you're getting national attention. It's about time, is all I will say on that subject!

I count on your accurate forecasts and will now plan to "hunker down" through the last of the month into February. And I wait with fingers crossed for your forecast for Spring.

Come on, suntan weather!

---------------------

Thanks, and it sounds like you need a Hawaiian vacation. It sounds nice to me too.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

LBF1958 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:10:54 GMT

Excellent entry Gary. Enjoyed it. And Bill, good to see you again. We missed you yesterday!

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

marlina10 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:42:22 GMT

That is exciting that other meterologists are beginning to take note of the LRC, too. Of course, all us bloggers already knew you were on to something. =) I won't mind putting up with our 1-day warmups while we wait for our next stormy stretch to arrive.

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Nick Rau — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:22:24 GMT

It will be interesting to see what the "next active" part of the pattern produces with the Jan-Feb "twists" with the strong fronts in Feb. it will be interesting to see if there are any more "surprise severe sneaks" in between the cold air. I don't know about the snow shovel but the thermometers and the anemometers will need to be ready for another workout!!!
Also congrats on the spread of the LRC to other weather forums!

--------------------------

Nick,

Thanks! And, yes we will talk about the late January and February twists to the pattern. It should be a bit different this time through. Will it be an exciting difference? I am not sure yet, but I lean in that direction.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

mamaof3girls — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:43:04 GMT

WOW!!! What a great entry Gary. I, and I am sure others, are going to enjoy this mild warm up before that artic air gets down here again. This is a good time to clean out our vehicles and clean up the yards. I still have a lot of leaves that need to be taken care of! Glad to hear others are finally thinking like the rest of us when it comes to the LRC....your website will pick up more and more traffic as the word continues to spread. When I drove to work Saturday night I was driving through the cold front. When I left home the temp was 58 and when I got to work in Southern Overland Park it was 35. I fought the wind from about 1 mile south of LaCygne all the way in. Have a great day!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

-----------------------

Monica,

Happy New Year to you and your family! Hopefully this next round of excitement will finally bring you some snow.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Emmysmom — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:55:05 GMT

I'm excited to hear that this calmer weather will last one to two more weeks!! It's nice not to have to worry about the weather and whether I can make it to work.

So the question is...I have 3 1/2 days of vacation this winter (at least until I go on maternity leave sometime late March)...will I have enough to make it through the next active period!?!?

Thanks for posting your thoughts on the upcoming potential, Gary!

---------------------------

Will you have enough? It could be close if we get a major winter storm. We are still waiting for one.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Emmysmom — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:09:42 GMT

Well if we have to have a big storm, I would like to place an order for it to be on a...say Friday night/Saturday. : )

It was kind of nice last year...it seemed like most of the storms that we had came late at night/early morning, and by 7:30-8:00ish in the morning, the sun was out and the melting began! I was late a few times, but it definitely helped me out. I wouldn't mind some of that.

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Andrew_Stafford — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:10:36 GMT

What about snowfall? What is your prediction for that?

-------------------

Andrew,

The winter forecast called for 20 to 25 inches. And, nothing has changed. The viewing area has had anywhere from 1 inch to around 10 inches to the northeast. I think we will have more of the small snows, but one or two times it just has to come together for something bigger. It didn't in the last cycle, but it should this time through.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

bellgolfMU12 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:14:07 GMT

Gary,
What is some of the criticism you are a hearing out there?

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Micah — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:20:33 GMT

Gary,
I'm a long-time reader but I think this is only my second post. Just wanted to thank you (and your team) for all that you put into this blog. I can't imagine doing without the information. I also greatly appreciate how available you and your team make yourselves and how you encourage and answer questions. Keep up the great work!

The LRC is amazing. I'm glad you are starting to get the national attention it deserves.

-------------------------

Micah,

Thanks for participation. We have a lot more work to do on the LRC and we are pushing forward.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Craig — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:50:14 GMT

G-Man: Is there a Nobel Prize for meteorology? If so, you should win it.
The academics are always slow to recognize new advances in their fields of study. One day soon, all forecasters will use the LRC for their winter predictions!

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

wsbgweather — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:46:55 GMT

I'm just curious if those of us out here (I'm in Warrensburg) should expect any real snow accumulations this winter. So far, what we've had is next to nothing. Going to be a rather sad season if my kids only get to play in an inch or two of snow! Thanks for all you and your team do Gary!

---------------------

I will be shocked if you don't get at least one snowstorm this winter. We will likely know before February 15th.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

stjoeattorney — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:46:59 GMT

kudos from God's Country. The cold I think for us could be some of the coldest since Dec 1989 . . . I am thinking negative 14 to 20 is possible with the snow to the north throw down 3-6 inches of snow here and man it will be cold.

Your prior 4 Feb mentioned 12 incher in the viewing area could be deja vieu [sp] all over again as we had 13 inches on 4-5 Feb last year!

-----------------

I picked that date using the LRC. As you can see in today's post that is the set up that should do it. But, how will it really set up in this next cycle.

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

weatherfreak01 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:48:57 GMT

Gary,
You have mentioned a few times that we will have Arctic blast(s) will be stronger than what we have already experienced. I have a question about that.. When you say that the up coming Arctic blasts will be stronger, what do you mean by that? Do you mean that they will be colder than what we have aready had with the previous Arctic blasts or that they will last longer, or does it mean yes to both?

I really am interested in your answer because A. I hate being cold and B. when we have the Arctic blasts is when my furnace acts up. Regular cold weather it can handle just fine, when it is 2 degrees outside it stops working.

Audra

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Chickadee — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:10:11 GMT

Does this change mean more cold weather or more chances for precipitation?

Also, do you test the LRC worldwide, or is it just based on cycles in US weather patterns?

---------------------

I am going to answer this question on Action Weather Plus this evening!

The weather pattern is cycling around the entire northern hemisphere, and a different cycle is occurring across the southern hemisphere. We haven't tested it out though.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

NotesInTheMargin — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:35:12 GMT

Gary,

From looking through that easternuswx forum post, it seems they aren't really discussing your theory, but rather the prevailing scientific theories of the ENSO, NAO, El Nino / La Nina and their relative impacts on cycling weather...and from what I recall, those are the theories that you have repeatedly downplayed and discounted - as recently as last week - as impacting a potential weather cycle.

It seems perhaps you misinterpreted some lengthy discussion about ENSO and NAO as some sort of credit to your theory because someone interjected one post mentioning you and your cycling ideas... although those who are putting out their forecasts on the forum don't seem to be using your theory - at least that was my take on it.

Back to the current weather and your upcoming long-range forecast: Will you be getting specific like you did last year by giving a week-to-week breakdown for the next 6 weeks or so, based on your theory?

Have you ever thought about doing monthly long-range forecasts like your friend Doug down in Joplin?

----------------

Notes,

I didn't have any misinterpretation at all. It was brought to my attention that it was discussed. And, I found the line where he saw a parallel to the weather pattern of what is now happening to one that already happened, which is very much the LRC.

Anyway, those other oscillations and temperature anamolies will always be considered. I just strongly believe that there is something else going on and all of these others such as ENSO, PNA, AO, NAO, etc are influences only. The MJO intrigues me tremendously however.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

LRCfan — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:49:14 GMT

Gary, Congratulations that people are starting to understand what the LRC is all about and that it does really exist it is about time. Hopefully it will all come together at least once for a major winter stiorm this season. It seems like the south and north have had more interesting weather this season than us.

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

kcwxguy — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:24:06 GMT

Notes -

Ha...now it is ok to attribute cycling patterns if it has NAO/ENSO or PNA associated to it? Previously, it seemed unreal that there could even be a cycling pattern. Now it is the critique that because it has teleconnective reasoning it is ok?

Regardless of how the analysis occurs, the fact is the pattern is recurring and does so on a regular basis is what is revolutionary.

Gary has said that he discounts ENSO/NAO CAUSING the LRC, but certainly, there may be influences.

While the discussion in the other forum was not specific to the LRC, can you provide any other source that you have seen that talks about a recurring pattern within the same season that hits in the same cycle duration as what we have described this year?

Seems that alone is enough to draw a correlation, regardless of the method of analysis.

In an unrelated thought, watching the analysis this year of the teleconnections and what this means vs. what that means and how it all relates has been rather comical. It seems odd so much credence is allowed this this type of analysis where we see forecasts based on it busting left and right.

Just my thoughts...

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

nicknack — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:43:35 GMT

looking ahead...
with this pattern it would repeat around March 29th - April 5th, then again around May 22nd. Knowing this would you guess we would have an earlier than normal tornado season or a later than normal. I realize that our tornadic season is May-June, however, some of the recent strong storms in the midwest have happened around May 4th.

----------------------

There are many aspects of this pattern that will produce some interesting set-ups this spring. I just haven't analyzed them yet.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

GaryB — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:22:22 GMT

For the most part I certainly agree with Notes.
The second part, Scott just posted: "Previously, it seemed unreal that there could even be a cycling pattern."
Really! Who ever said or thought that? It's called seasons!! Everything cycles,
49 days ago it was 65 and 35 and sunny
50 days ago it was 43 and 22 and sunny
51 days ago it rained and was 42-24
52 days ago it rained and was 57-26

Those same days back from this coming Friday would be Nov. 24-27- depending what days of the cycle theory one goes with....Either way, that week was above normal temperatures with no precip.

Let's go back 98 days ago today, based on 49 days... It was unusally warm with a high of 72 and a low of 47. If you use the 52 day "cycle" then it as more unusually hot with a high of 83 and a low of 59.

Using the LRC for the last 100 days, today should have been at least above normal temps. Today, was actually average.

The fact is the LRC is loosly based on history since late September or early October. It's my contention and what I do, is to find a similar year from the past based on the same time frame to look into the future. If the LRC works, then doing what I do should work the same. Only I have better results.

************************** GaryB, Please show me your forecast for this winter and when you posted it, plus all the years in the past that you used to make your long range forecast this winter. I'm sure Gary Lezak will want to respond to your comments too. I really take to task your comment of "Only I have better results". Where can I find an archive of your past winter forecasts and the date you made them? Jeremy

And From Gary,

We have no idea if you have better results. I hope you do, but I doubt you will. This pattern is cycling Gary, and it is not the seasons. We will be going deeper into this discussion on the LRC blog this week.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Micah — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:40:54 GMT

GaryB,
You have better results? Are you willing to put your predictions in writing days or even weeks ahead of time as Gary and Co. do? It would be the only way to demonstrate the accuracy of your findings. I just think it's easy for any of us to be armchair coaches where our predictions are not recorded for all to see.

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

LuvsSummer — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:03:15 GMT

Gary and Jeremy,

I'm glad I never even attempt to forecast anything! :-)

If I could get the time away from work, yes, I'd head for Hawaii, but alas, being in IT, and having to go to training for 14 different days in January, plus deploy new equipment, I can't get away.

So, I'll just wrap up in something warm and watch forecasts and check the site often.

Preparing for the artic blast here...(yuck).

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Joplinwxguy — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:03:41 GMT

GaryB,
Your off on your days of the pattern. Before you can make a forecast you have to know where we are in the pattern. We aren't at 49 days, you have to see that one. Also this Friday isn't the Nov 24th-27th time period. That period is still a good week and a half away. I am not going to get started.
Doug

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

radman22 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:06:12 GMT

This years pattern seem very easy compared to last year to forecast. 21-22" of snow seems like a stretch at this point, but possible, esp for KCI. The Eastern ridge seems to keep the cold air filtering in while just glancing the storms right on by us. The temp contrast has to be the biggest feature this year, as I cannot recall a single winter that had this many 30-40deg temp swings in less than 12hrs. We are only half way through!!!!

Again, last year was very tough as the precip spread was so divided by a small distance. The Dec 22nd blizzard was so crazy as nobody could believe it would not move east at some point. At least with this years pattern you will not go on record calling for a "March Blizzard". J/K I love to tease you about that Gary. Had it come true, you would have been a legend!

Great Blog BTW
Joe

-------------------

Joe,

Maybe I will be that bold again. But, if it seems easier it is because we have yet to have any major storm systems come together for us, major WINTER storms that is. The storm a little over a week ago was a major storm with the rain, thundertorms, a little bit of ice, then snow, but we are still waiting for that first major winter storm. I will be making more specific forecasts soon.

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

kcwxguy — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:32:40 GMT

Just cuz its fun...

"The fact is the LRC is loosly based on history since late September or early October. It's my contention and what I do, is to find a similar year from the past based on the same time frame to look into the future. If the LRC works, then doing what I do should work the same. "

Except for the fact that every year is unique. Doh!

Some many gems to pick from...but here is one that had some detail to work with...."December looks to have below average temps the second week and a bout of snow right on time about the 1st. On the 12th, looks to be near zero with a chance of 3.5" of snow." Posted Nov. 20th.

While a hit for Dec 1st, it was within model range of the forecast..so for this case, will discount based on the long range nature of the claim of accuracy.

Second week - Dec 8-14th, KMCI recorded 3.7 degrees ABOVE normal.

December 12th, the low was 22 degrees. KMCI recorded no snow that day. In all fairness, if you add a buffer of two days either side of that date, the combined total was just short of half an inch.

I learned a lesson awhile back that while it is more than fair to come strong with an opinion or critique of an idea, if you promote yourself as better...probably should have the data to back it up. And not just a few times, but consistently.

I will be the first to admit, I personally have had my share of blown forecasts. That said, critique of the LRC might be better served in a manner that does not bring out forecast accuracy as it has been extremely good for quite some time.

I welcome critique from Notes and others, certainly, as it is well thought out and certainly has some legs to work with. I have a respect, and while we may disagree, I believe both sides can bring out some good points and something productive to work from.

Garyb, continuing to poke at the LRC with surface analysis without factoring in climate norms is a disjointed argument. I think you might have better luck in disputing the upper levels as that is where the LRC is best shown, described, and most often communicated.

I enjoy your passion and zest for weather, and certainly have some good ideas..but think there might be a better way to express your critique.

;-)

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Greg — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:06:16 GMT

That's a great looking 7-day for early Jan. Eventually one of these years we're going to get hit by a major snowstorm, we live in K.C. its the law of averages people! Personally I hope it doesn't do jack squat the rest of the winter! The daylight hours are getting longer and everyday we're one day closer to spring. Ahh, I love boring weather this time of year!

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

NotesInTheMargin — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:15:45 GMT

Greg said:
...we live in K.C. its the law of averages people!

You realize the so-called "Law of Averages" is bogus, right?

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

hippygoth — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:19:39 GMT

Here is one discussion on the LRC I found on a weather site.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18518

H. ********************** Thanks for posting that. I just read the comments. First off, I've run into one of the critics in that forum you posted in other weather discussions with topics that are non-LRC related. He's an expert on everything;) At face value someone telling me that the weather cycles and can be predicted months out...I would flat out say it's not possible. That is why you have to follow the LRC for at least 1-2 years to get a good handle on what it is and also what you can use it for forecast-wise. Is it going to predict a tornado in Olathe 6 months out, no. Is it going to give an idea of the type of setups or trends months out, yes. For those in the science community that are not willing to look past the fact that it is an unproven theory to find out more information about it and that there is really something to it is really troublesome. If the field of Meteorology is going to continue to grow and develop in ideas and thoughts I think it is better to have an open mind when approaching topics like the LRC or other unproven ideas/theories. Then again it is the doubters that I want to directly compete with when it comes to forecasting in Kansas City or wherever my career goes down the road. So Hippy...what are your thoughts on the LRC? Jeremy

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

sheldan — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:04:21 GMT

Wow, I really feel uneducated weather wise, reading some of these blogs. I got on hear to ask Gary (like Craig did above) what kind of award he could receive if others pick up on the LRC? A Nobel for meteorology would be awesome! And I truly enjoy the entries, and watching the forecasting done by all. Keep up the great work guys! (Hoping for snow)

---------------

Thank you so much, but we are so far away from any award winning honors. We will keep working on the LRC.

Hoping for snow too!

Gary

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Greg — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:28:58 GMT

Notes, no I didn't realize that... enlighten me. I was just going off what I've seen here in the last 42yrs. Forgive me for the poor choice of words...

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

hippygoth — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:21:28 GMT

Jeremy,

My uneducated self fully believes in cycles in weather, in fact in everything in general. In fact, does our weather not cycle every year anyway? Ok so the LRC is more in depth than that.

Anyway, I always give theories my best shot based upon my knowledge, personally I think the LRC is viable, it may take years to make or break the theory. As you're probably aware the scientific community does not move with much haste at signing off on theories. I appreciate anyone who goes out and forwards anything in the scientific community. If science did not improve with theories, we'd still be believing the world is flat, and I'd be chipping this post into a stone tablet... :D

H. ******************* Thanks for the response. I guess time will tell if the theory becomes more widely accepted. Jeremy

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

NotesInTheMargin — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:22:19 GMT

>>Greg said:
>>Notes, no I didn't realize that... enlighten me.

Here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/a6pu36

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Greg — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:35:09 GMT

Na, that wernt so hard notes, heck i gradiated the 6th grade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

Alden — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 05:16:53 GMT

Great blog!

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

pmccabe58 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 06:35:07 GMT

wow notes whats your problem?.... Mad that Gary is getting attention and proved you wrong? Hahahaha dont take it out on Greg, geezz

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

pmccabe58 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 06:37:24 GMT

One more thing notes, on wikipedia anyone can go on there and change stuff... not very reliable. Just thought i'd let ya know ;)

re: LRC Forecast Looking Ahead

billinlawrence — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:28:55 GMT

Gary:

Good beautiful morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 26 this morning under clear skies-very nice and refreshing morning out this morning!!!
A few random observations this morning that as always, I hope make a little bit of sense!!

1. Looking at the latest surface observations I think one can see the weak wind shift line sitting out in Central Kansas-it is pretty weak especially compared to what we have seen but I think it is there.

2. Looking at the water vapor imagery this morning you can really see our current pattern (I think??)-that ridge sitting off of the west coast really shows up well and man the moisture feed is minimal-there is some trying to work in from the Pacific but it is pretty week. If I am looking at this correctly at all, one can sure see where we are by looking at the water vapor imagery-pretty cool!!

3. Looking at the 0z Euro at day 10-man the similarities to the end of November are striking-the polar vortex on the Euro is a bit further East than what is shown from 11-25 but looking at the heights in the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska very similar. The Euro I think is for sure picking up on the development of the active part of the cycle. Whether or not it all comes together for us remains to be seen of course but to me regardless of that it is going to be fascinating watching this active “regime” develop and come back through.

4. Big limb here (as if I haven’t already gone out on one this morning LOL) but I think for us to get a decent winter storm we have to have that secondary long wave in Oklahoma come to the party and probably come to the party as an arctic front is barreling down-last time through we just couldn’t get any energy to really develop along the arctic front and ride it up. If we could get that secondary long wave to show itself in this next active part-man, it could be one for the ages-I really believe that if we do have things come together with this pattern it could be a monster. That secondary long wave needs to stop being agoraphobic!!! Does this make any sense???

Well, school is already into high gear and since I teach politics and history with everything happening right now, (No, I am not teaching the History Channel’s obsession with the end of days!!!) my head is spinning trying to discuss it all!!! Unfortunately, my weather hobby is about to be co-opted by my job!!!! LOL

Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence