Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Xenodiagnostic — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:13:07 GMT

Finally! I am not the only one to notice that!

Seems like a similar set up to last night in the Wichita area; maybe we will have a band of rain like that one!

I say that simply because yesterday, that storm complex parked an outflow over Wichita, and then storms formed on it. The set up is just further east, people!

If that doesn't get us, complexes will get us from up north most likely. 80% chance of rain based upon what I've analyzed. In the mean time, it seems to maybe have gotten much more humid suddenly down in Lincoln. My thermometer is not the best in the world, but I have 93 with a dewpoint of 76. I'm leaving here tonight; maybe I can get some storms along the road.

I have a couple rolls of film I need to develop anyways with some good pictures on them.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Xenodiagnostic — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:18:07 GMT

I'll take my prediction down to 70%... that feels better

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Dwxtracker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:22:54 GMT

So do you think that the SPC's 30% hatched hail and wind threat will verify? I haveing trouble seeing storm rolling our way unless something forms late tonight in Nebraska and heads our way.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Dwxtracker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:24:58 GMT

Sorry, typing to quickly, missed some typos.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

ChicagoExPat — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:27:38 GMT

What does "hatched hail" mean? I can't find a definition gy Googling. Thanks.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Xenodiagnostic — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:39:17 GMT

Tina,
If you look on the SPC forecasts, and go over to the probabilities section, sometimes there will be an outline, and a hatched interior. That is what we are referencing when we say hatched hail, hatched wind, or hatched tornado.

Both wind and hail are hatched for today, so there is a 10% risk of hail of 2" withing 25 miles of your pinpointed location, and there is also a 10% risk of extreme wind according to the SPC. (My name is linked to the forecast)

You may have known this, Tina, but someone else might find it very useful.

I think the risks are good, as a 30% risk is still a pretty low one.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

juba — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:22:30 GMT

I don't fell rain tonight, i just don't! Tina, a while ago I asked you about our little tree, we had already planted it. Does it have a chance at growing or should I get a new one already? Its leaves aren't as dark as they used to be but our ground is very wet right now. We forgot to turn off our spriklers while we were gone. Its a Royal Empress Tree.

Sorry everybody if you think I'm off topic, can you watch my Youtube video, its the second one I posted! And my favorite one too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hus7l1LUM-g

Please Rain!!!

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

mnumom — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 01:05:03 GMT

Jeremy,

Does the weather team choose nights to stay up and monitor the weather, do you pick straws, flip the coin, have certain days and nights on ... I admire how you guys always have us covered. Thank you!

Also, in the last blog, Brian mentioned that he was a professional storm chaser. He also mentioned that yesterday there should have been a warning as to the approaching bad weather. If the professional chasers see what's happening and the radar is not quite picking it up, how does the National Weather Service issue their warnings?

Do they post warnings and/or watches only by what they see on the radar or do they also, in conjunction with the radar and the professional chasers, make those decisions. Brian definitely posted a very interesting and scary observation of what happened yesterday.

**********************

Usually the evening person stays a little late and the morning person comes in a little early. That's generally a good way to handle the overnight stuff. Obviously it depends on the situation. If it is more of a tornado threat versus hail or strong winds, we might have 2 people here.

Ground reports are a huge factor in helping the NWS in issuing warnings. The radar can only tell someone so much. A good example is right now my home town of Windom, MN is under a tornado warning. The radar is showing zero indication of rotation, but a spotter witnessed a brief tornado touchdown, so a tornado warning was issued.

Jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

mnumom — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:02:52 GMT

Thank you Jeremy ... I pray everyone will be ok in Windom ...

*********************

As I told my parents when the warning was issued..."You have nothing to worry about". There 'possible' tornado was 10 miles west of them and there was nothing on radar that would indicate a tornado. At least from what I saw.

jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Dwight — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:07:09 GMT

so, it looks like some storm forming in western Kansas near Dodge City or Hutch. Is it those storms that will form an mcs or will something form closer to kc. Also, it looks like the track of the northern storms is more east. What would suddenly pull them south?

**********************

I think something should form in Nebraska and head our way. Looks like something may get going around or after midnight. For the metro probably after 3 a.m.

Jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

MikeandJenn — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:24:36 GMT

Jeremy, I am beginning to think that YOU are the full time meteorologist!

You do a great job - keep it up!

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

chieffan07 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:27:18 GMT

Hello, I just wanted to say that it make me feel much safer knowing that someone from the weather team will be monitoring this situation all night.

How worried should we be about severe weather between 1:00 and 6:00 in the morning (Around the Liberty/Worlds of Fun Area)? I know Jeremy said a slight risk, but what type of severe weather would it be, if it happens? Should we be worried about tornados, microbursts, or hail and wind?

Thank you

*******************

I would say anything that develops will be after 3am, probably after 4 or 5am in spots. Slight risk of severe, strong winds the biggest threat.

Jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

kcwxguy — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:44:10 GMT

Jeremy - dunno about Nebraska. I see the triggers, but dunno...something is missing. Maybe I am wrong. I do agree with something being here closer to 4-6AM, but where is it coming from? Seemed to me it develops nearby.

These setups are a learning experience for me. Spring seems much easier. Having to factor in such small features with the ridge so close, its tough. Resolution and mesoscale features make this maddening. I will say this, I love the fact that satellite and surface obs play a bigger factor in this type of setup.

It is so interesting here to have three seasons of different forecasting. Winter is its own animal, spring is much different, summer is much different and then you have fall, which is spring lite. KC is where you can learn and use it all...we are only missing tropical, lake effect and mountainous terrain.

I am sure your folks are just fine from the reported rain shaft - I mean brief touchdown.

I am reeling from the prospect of the ridge building to our south that may push 600dm.

********************

Yeah...the southeast NE, northeast KS, northwest MO area will likely be where things pop.

Jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

pilotskcx — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:44:48 GMT

Mnumom-Jeremy:

Just a little more background on that event. What a crazy day!

When Brian called me on the phone during the event, at first I thought he was joking about a 75dbz return on the radar. Usually something returning nearly off the scale like that would be considered to possibly have 4" hail or greater and a TVS if in the right condidtions, If I'm not mistaken.

I was at work and we had light rain when I got the call. I had no idea that that thing would blossom as fast as it did.

If I'm not mistaken it may have became a rare left turner when the core punched Brian. I had actually advised Brian not to chase that one but for other reasons. I had no idea that it would go severe so quickly. It also had a weak shear marker on it for while after it cleared I-35.

Ground truth can really take you by surprise sometimes. That's the biggest lesson here. I'm not sure I'd blame NWS soley, but they probably could have gone ahead and issued the warning a tad sooner. I gave Brian the EAX # so he could make his next to call to them ASAP and file a report.

Now I will have to give credit to EAX also. They called me several times this year to ask me for ground truth on several different occasions which probably prevented an unnecessary TOR Warn. They were also able to view my live stream and see what I was seeing.

It's also worth noting that NWS isn't required to act on our reports legally. They make their decisions based on several factors. We can be a major one, but there are certainly others to be considered. The local media also plays a major role in a lot of cases with their cameras.

FYI, Brian is our videog. He's a really great chaser. We're very fortunate to have 2 vehicles and 4 people with full equipment.

Bottom line here, is that there were many lessons learned in less then an hour on that cell. Most were about ourselves...lol. Everything happened so fast!

We've learned a ton this year thanks to a lot of people here in the blog, at KSHB, and even another local network who we work closely with now.

Take care everyone!

Jeff Nielsen (KMCI) PLA414
Kansas City, Missouri, USA

MSN: ceo_exec_dir@hotmail.com
http://pilotskcx.spaces.live.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/pilotskcx
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
http://www.spotternetwork.org

*********************

Franklin County is under the TOP NWS warning area. So EAX was likely watching the cell...but can't issue the warning. So this was up to the TOP office.

Jeremy

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

pilotskcx — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:53:18 GMT

Kcwxguy,

We stopped at Mound City and turned back around 8p'ish. York, NE was still capped at 2.7...lol. We thought the same thing as you did, but called it a bust! Arggg! Everything was pretty much there excpect a strong enough cold front me thinks.

Jeff Nielsen (KMCI) PLA414
Kansas City, Missouri, USA

MSN: ceo_exec_dir@hotmail.com
http://pilotskcx.spaces.live.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/pilotskcx
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
http://www.spotternetwork.org

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Xenodiagnostic — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:09:43 GMT

That's odd. It looks like a little disturbance from Colorado ejected eastward and shot off a nice supercell near Great Bend. Maybe that one will come over and play havoc. Honestly didn't see this potential. LOL!

Still haven't seen anything to the north, but that will change.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Dwxtracker — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:39:04 GMT

Something just popped in SE Nebraska! Good call Jeremy.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

chieffan07 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:08:17 GMT

Hello, I see that the storms are starting to pop up to the north. Is everyone still thinking we could get sever weather here?

Sorry if I'm being repetitive but I just get kinda freaked out when severe weather is possible, especially during the overnight hours.

Thanks

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Nick Rau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:41:24 GMT

Some faint thunder here in St. Joe! wow those cells to my west-northwest have really blossomed! To bad I cant stay up ALL night, but I will try to stay up a bit longer(that's the only thing about these storm set-ups, they sometimes come when it is hard to enjoy them). Good call Jeremy on the southeast Neb. thing.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Nick Rau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:45:02 GMT

Cell in Richardson co. Neb. just went severe.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

lezakEF5 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:48:32 GMT

Storms popping up in SE Nebraska....Excellent forecast Jeremy!! I record and watch every stations weathercast, I only listen to the Action Plus Weather Team, but I like to compare. It was very interesting getting all the stations opinions on tonights possible storms. 1 station didnt even think there was going to be any storms tonight. Just shows there is only 1 weather team to listen to...Action Weather Plus.

You guys were also the only ones showing the cooler temps on the 7 day especially for Thursday and Friday, while other were showing near 100 degree heat, and what won out....the cooler air.

Now you guys have near 100 degree heat for Tuesday, and everyone else has lower 90's. This is what I really like about the Action Plus Weather Team, you guys arent afraid to take risks and go with your gut, and of course using the LRC. If Weather Rate looked at 7 day forecasts, you guys would kick ass!!

Your long range forecasts using the LRC also put you in a league of your own as you dominate the CPC's forecast which all the other stations show, and you compare it with yours and show how it was a complete bust.

So congratulations on 6+ years of being the most accurate News Station in Kansas City and arguably the country!!

Alex in Marceline

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

knssctykelly — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:30:30 GMT

wow big thunder and lots of rain here south of the metro. lol keep trying to see it on the radar but it skips over me may be because of my computer

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

jon64506 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:32:15 GMT

a good thundershower in st jo this morning, about 1 1/4 inch. very wet dog walking.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

ChicagoExPat — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:50:14 GMT

Wow, what did the people of Missouri do to bring this on themselves? Is Noah reincarnated and living in Norborne? Our rain in south JoCo began around 5am and is just finishing up, at least for now. We're in that thin band moving across the metro, and that cell that developed near Spring Hill really bloomed as soon as it exited our area. Now it's over Belton and Peculiar. We only had about 30-45 minutes of rain. Heckuva light show to the east, though.

Tina

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

Watkins Gal — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:35:04 GMT

NW Ray County was hit with the morning storm that has moved through. Rain gauge reports 3.65 inches of rain in approx 2 hours. Had to call 911 for the neighbors...about 1/4 mile away... as their house was struck by lightning. I think the fire dept. has it under control now. No one was injured. What a light show!!!

*** What a night! Thanks for the rain report. I'll try to get it on the midday news.***Brett

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

ChicagoExPat — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:11:06 GMT

WatkinsGal, wow -- I'm glad things are under control now and you're all right, but that sure is a lot of rain for a 2-hour period. It's hard to believe we're not that far away from you and our rain gauge just registered a trace. I hope peoples' sump pumps can keep up with that amount of water in such a short time.

re: Interesting Outflow...Thunderstorms Tonight

pilotskcx — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:52:07 GMT

Jeremy:

I meant to say TOP was the number I gave him, which is still on my scratchpad....lol. Sorry so many NWS numbers and radar cov areas this year got me all backwards.

It was a 785 number. Had to dig it off the net. I couldn't find their 800 we normally use for some reason.

Jeff Nielsen (KMCI) PLA414
Kansas City, Missouri, USA

MSN: ceo_exec_dir@hotmail.com
http://pilotskcx.spaces.live.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/pilotskcx
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
http://www.spotternetwork.org