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Good afternoon bloggers,

Unfortanately some bad language and emotional outbursts entered our blog today. This is too bad.  I will open the blog up for comments again soon.  But, please remember the rules, as we have worked way too hard to make the NBC Action Weather Blog a fun, educational, and information filled place to share weather thoughts and information. 

• Please do not use, or imply any bad language.
• Please try to understand other bloggers feelings and don't respond emotionally.
• Please talk about the weather in our weather blog.
• Please don't mention competitors by name.

I will leave the comments off until we have all read this.  We are tracking potential thunderstorms this evening.  They are forming along the cold front right now.  Watch NBC Action News for details.

Gary

Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms later today, but right now there are some limiting factors that must be overcome for us to have a thunderstorm.  A capping layer, 8,000 to 10,000 feet above us will prevent thunderstorms from forming most of the day.  By the end of the day this capping layer will erode, but there are other questions.  

• #1:  A low cloud deck will form and become quite extensive, will this prevent heating?
• #2:  How high will the dewpoints get later this afternoon?
• #3:  Where will the front line up around 7 PM this evening?
• #4:  When will the cap erode away?
• #5:  There is no strong wave to organize any convective activity, so what will trigger the thunderstorms?

Let's address the cap first. Thunderstorms rapidly developed along the leading edge of the cap around 7 AM this morning and are tracking east of I-35, northwest of Chillicothe and northeast of Cameron, moving away early this morning.  Below you can see the 700 mb forecast map for 10 AM this morning.  A capping layer (around 10,000 feet above us) is moving across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas this morning.  A cap is a warm layer of air, that is warmer than the air below it, which prevents thunderstorm development, until it breaks.  How does it break?  There are two main ways.  One way is when that layer is forced to cool, which is likely going to happen later this afternoon as temperatures aloft drop a few degrees.  And, another way is when it heats up enough to allow the warmer air below to rise and break through the cap, this is how you can go from nothing to intense thunderstorms in a very short period of time.  Through most of the day, heating will be limited by a thick low cloud deck which is developing right now. So, we will have to rely on the cooler air aloft to move in, which is still questionable.  The cap can be seen below by looking at the 700 mb level and finding the 10 degree isotherm:

The surface map, below, shows 66 degree dewpoints crossing the Red River on the Oklahoma/Texas border.  This Gulf of Mexico air is surging our way.  So, moisture will likely be available for thunderstorms later this afternoon, but what will trigger them?  The cold front is heading our way. This wind shift line will be the main trigger today, and should be near Kansas City by 7 PM.  There is really not a big upper level storm, only weak disturbances moving up in southwest flow. The main upper low is developing well back over the southwestern United States.  So, this cold front will be the main triggering mechanism. 

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in a slight risk, with a moderate risk from where the tornadoes hit over the weekend and extending to the southwest across Oklahoma into northern Texas.  We will continue monitoring our risk as we move through the day, but at this moment it appears the best chance of any signficant thunderstorm activity will be south of our local region, and to the northeast of Kansas City this morning as the cap hasn't built into that area yet.

Have a great day.  We will update the blog later.  Brett Anthony will keep you updated on NBC Action News through the morning, and with the new data on our Mid-Day newscast at 11 AM.

Gary

Good morning bloggers,

What a weekend!  A supercell thunderstorm formed over southern Kansas, turned southeast and then produced deadly tornodoes across northeast Oklahoma, just south of the Kansas border, and then the supercell tracked across southwest Missouri leaving 22 people killed (95 deaths this year across the United States, well above average number of tornado fatalities).  We will have to check the statistics later, but it appears that most of the people killed, on Saturday evening, were not in their home, but outside or in their cars.

Our next chance of severe thunderstorms arrives on Tuesday.  A weak cold front will be tracking through our region Tuesday afternoon and evening.  There is just a slight risk right now, and we will blog about this potential later today.

I was the MC of the Fur Ball, benefitting Wayside Waifs.  Stormy came along with me and the event raised over $500,000.  Here are a couple of pictures from the event, as you can see all of the people, 1100 were at the event.  And, we were allowed to dress down into the Yappy Days theme of the 50s, as you can see in the second picture.  Stormy was so fantastic as I will bet that she was pet by at least 250 people, and then she came on stage and commanded the attention of all of the people.

Look for our next blog around noon today.  Stormy and I are going to an elementary school in Independence this morning.  Have a great start to your week.

Gary

Watch NBC Action News HD at 8am & 10pm as we will have live reports from the hardest hit areas of southwest Missouri!

Deadly storms pushed through the Plains and Midwest last evening killing at least 19 people.  These storms produced strong, long track tornadoes and some of the damage appears that the strongest tornadoes may be rated EF 3 or 4.  Some of our bloggers had family in the path of these storms and our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected.  I want to send a huge thank you to Jacob of Lee's Summit as a relative of his that lives in southwest Missouri shared her tornado experience last night on NBC Action News.

Here is a list storm reports on Saturday from the SPC.

Our lead storm chaser Sean Wilson once again was where the action was located.  Sean appeared on our morning show this morning sharing if video of the storm.  We will air more of Sean's video tonight at 10pm and also during our newscasts on Monday.  You can always see Sean's chase information at www.blownawaytours.com

Here in the metro winds gusted to around 50 mph overnight.  The peak wind gust at KCI was 47 mph!  The strong non-thunderstorm winds did down trees in spots and produced some damage to mobile homes in east Kansas City.

For Mother's Day we can expect winds to gradually let up, but still expect winds in the neighborhood of 20-35 mph this morning...and then diminishing to 15 mph late this afternoon.  Highs with sunshine should be in the low 60s.  And tonight will be clear with temps in the lower 40s.

The entire NBC Action Weather Plus team wishes all the Mom's a Happy Mother's Day!

Jeremy

3:15 PM update:  The surface low has continued developing and sagging south.   It is forming west of Chanute Kansas, and this should keep the the tornado threat down near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders.  We will likely see a few showers and thunderstorms form north of the low in our viewing area, but the main threat will be some hail.

Previous entry below:

Good afternoon bloggers,

A tornado watch has been issued for the southern half of our viewing area.  There is very little immediate threat as the thunderstorms that formed this morning have now moved off to the east with a wave aloft.  As we move through the afternoon, as discussed the past two days, a storm is going to begin rapidly developing and intensifying. We are in the developing area which makes it quite tricky.  Thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon and then rapidly shift east and northeast this evening.  By 9 PM the threat will have moved well off to the north and east. But, we will have to watch this situation closely between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight as the conditions come together for possible supercell thunderstorms.  Large hail will be the main threat, especially for the elevated thunderstorms in the cooler air.  The tornado threat is highest way down south near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders.

Here is the 1 PM surface map below: 

Warm moist air is being pulled into the storm as it is just now coming together this afternoon.  Will it be enough to trigger the big thunderstorms?  Yes, but when will they form?  As I said above, the best chance of them forming is between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight.   Let's watch the surface low as it may sag southeast along the warm front as it will be affected by the much warmer air mass to the south. 

Our newscast is on at 6 PM.  So, watch NBC Action News at 6 PM as we track these developments.  If severe weather threatens, then you know we will be there for you.  Have a great afternoon, and stay with NBC Action News, we'll keep you advised.

Gary

Good Friday Night in the Big Town!

We are analyzing the new data, and I am on the air in minutes.  I will blog about the trends in the models for Saturday, as yet another storm is heading our way.

If the storm slows down just a bit on Saturday more low level moisture will be pulled into the storm. It is something we will talk about in the morning beginning at 7 AM during the Today show.  Jeremy Nelson will have complete details at 8 AM.  The GFS hasn't come out yet, and I am just wiped out.  So, good night.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

Happy Friday NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

We will be tracking a very strong developing storm on our newscasts through the weekend.  Don't forget our weekend morning newscasts that begin at 8 AM on NBC Action News.  And, before I go into this fascinating May weather pattern, I just want to thank all of the brave Kansas Citians who had their heads shaved yesterday helping the American Cancer Societies Hope Lodge, including young 8 year old Jacob.  Here is the link to see the video: 

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=353064@kshb.dayport.com

Now, onto  our weather.  As we move into mid-May there is a growing interest into this years LRC pattern that refuses to allow it to warm up.  When we issued the winter forecast back in November I talked about Storm Track #2.  We wondered if it would be the dominant feature.  But, we didn't know that it would dominate the entire pattern until around December.  From December on, viewers, friends, co-workers, have been asking me is it ever going to warm up.  And, I have had an immediate answer each time of, "NO".  This pattern refuses to allow a long term warming trend set up.  We will still have some warm-ups, but they have always been brief so far.  Only two days of near 80 degrees all year, thus far, with none in the forecast.

Storm Track #2 features a "long term" longwave trough that repeats over and over again at regularly scheduled periods as indicated in this years LRC pattern.  Storm Track #2 wants you to see its eyes this weekend.  Look below at the two maps:

This first map, above, is the forecast for Saturday afternoon.  A very strong storm is developing as it drops into the "long term" longwave trough position just east of us.  This longwave trough is responsible for most of the eastern tornadoes and southern Missouri flooding this season.  As this storm develops, look how it just explodes as it moves into the trough position on the map below:

And, as a result, we have a good chance of a brief period of rain on Saturday afternoon, and then a windy, cold May day on Sunday as you can see on the surface map below:

We will be all over this on our weathercasts today and tonight, and through the weekend.  Please try to watch.  We will put our new Powercast (HD high resolution forecast model) to work this weekend.

Gary