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Good evening bloggers. Snowfall will continue this evening. A broad shield of moderate snow with isolated heavier spots looks to continue through at least bedtime. Check out this snapshot of ESP Live Radar around 6:15 this evening.
With the red showing areas of heavy snow moving northward, we'll be watching areas east and southeast of KC for the heaviest accumulations in the short term. I've circled an area in yellow, with the broad shape of a mini-comma head in light blue...looks to be just north of a vorticity maxima moving north-northwest and rotating around the parent upper level low (this upper level low is over the red river valley well south of the field of view). This is another area I'll watch for redeveloping heavy snow this evening.
Here's the additional snowfall forecast map created at 4 pm of what we're expecting tonight. A widespread 2"-4" atop the 4-8" we've already seen around KC. 6-12" total by tomorrow morning! The 4-5" maxima may ought to be moved northward. We'll correct on the 10pm news. Be careful tonight as road conditions will likely worsen.
Thanks for reading and for all the reports. Stay safe!
-GW
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Good Late Morning Bloggers... After a break in the action...more snow approaches from the southwest for the late morning and early afternoon. This snapshot of ESP LIVE radar was taken around 10:30 am...areas of heavy snow developing and pushing northeastward.
As this snow moved northeastward through Kansas, it was able to quickly drop 3" of snow...some reports from the Topeka NWS station around 5". With strong winds, visibilities are down in areas of heavy snow as well. Something we'll have to watch for this afternoon. And it's just getting started (again).
Above is the 700mb plot of moisture and rising motion for the overnight period. Over OK/KS/MO we see the comma shaped storm system, with the dry slot pushing up through Arkansas. After this late morning/afternoon's wave of snow, we could see other waves of heavy snow rotate around this storm, around the head of the 'comma', and resulting bands of very heavy snowfall through early Sunday Morning.
This is the snowfall forecast map we showed for additional snowfall Saturday afternoon/night. Notice the tight gradient to the northwest...as areas around Maryville and Hiawatha may have seen most of the snowfall they're going to see. The tight gradient to the southeast, because further to the southeast, much of the precip will fall as rain. However, in the radar picture above, snow is already beginning to push further east, and looks like it may spread further northwest as well. We may have to widen our area of 4-8". Isolated 8"+ amounts are possible as well.
Thanks for reading. A good day to stay inside and watch basketball.
-GW
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Good morning bloggers,
The first wave of snow has now moved by leaving 1 to 5 inch snowfall amounts in a very short period of time. Snow came down quite heavily between 1 AM and 3 AM. There is a bit of sinking air in the wake of the first wave of snow and this has reduced the snow to just flurries. The main storm is now beginning to spin to our southwest and we are anticipating new bands of snow that will rapidly develop in the next few hours. We are expecting total accumulations in the range of 4" to 12" by the time this storm moves away early Sunday.
George and I will be on NBC Action News between 6 AM and 9 AM this morning. Please send us any pictures and thoughts to our weather email account: Weather@NBCActionNews.com.
We will update the blog soon.
Gary
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Good early morning bloggers,
The roads have become snow covered, slick & hazardous in spots. Temperatures have dropped to 28º to 31º across most areas with bands of heavy snow now moving in. We are about to set the record for the most number of 1" snow days. This will be the 15th, and maybe the 16th days with an inch or more recorded in one season. This has never happened before.
I forecasted 4" to 12" of snow for areas along and south of a Lawrence to Platte City line, and showed a 15"+ bullseye within the viewing area. Now, will it happen? Well, it has started, so let's see where Winter Storm "Ludwig" finishes. The heaviest snowfall will likely happen in spots a bit farther south. We will pick these areas out in the morning. This storm likely will have two or three waves of significant and heavy snow. This is the first one. We will be tracking this and the other parts of this developing storm beginning at 6 AM Saturday on NBC Action News. George and I will be in going over the trends on the radar, satellite, and computer models.
Let us know what you are experiencing as we share these "crazy" last moments of winter together.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
At 8:50 PM the rain/snow line is now just 25 miles northwest of KCI Airport and 45 miles west of the Plaza. This line is moving southeast and east at about 10 mph. A large area of precipitation is continuing to develop and overspread the viewing area.
We are currently working on a very special weathercast for the 10 PM newscast. This is looking more and more like a major snowstorm will be forming over us in the next few hours. How much snow? At 6 PM we went for widespread 4 to 8 inch amounts. Our powercast had up to 15 inches in some spots. Is this possible? Yes! We will be working on picking out the most likely area to have this very heavy snow band.
This is the last full day of winter. The war between spring and winter may be entering its biggest battle tonight.
There are two very tough forecast issues that we are currently working on and will have to monitor as the storm goes on:
- The rain/snow line
- The snow/no snow line
The rain/snow line will get to southeast of the KC metro area, but how far southeast will it end up? The snow/no snow line will stall northwest of Kansas City. If it does indeed stall northwest of the KC metro area, and I am expecting it to, then as the main storm closes off there will begin to be new bands of very heavy snow forming in a developing comma head. This would lead to very high snowfall totals in some spots.
I will be here with George Waldenberger beginning at 6 AM Saturday as we track these developments together on NBC Action News through 9 AM. Check back for a blog update later tonight.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
Our in-house computer model just came out with yet another different solution. It basically picks our viewing area as the snow target for this storm. Over a foot is forecast by this one computer model and right in the southern part of the KC metro area. But, it also has a very sharp cut-off line.
I am going to show this possible solution at 6 PM and then I will add more thoughts later.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast!
Good morning bloggers,
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas just south of I-70. But, areas north of I-70 will likely have snowfall accumulations hours before any snowflakes fall to the south. This is a very complex winter storm that will be moving in on the last day of winter and the first moments of spring. I will go over some of the complexities and provide you with our latest forecast here. But, be sure to watch NBC Action News today and tonight for our latest thoughts.
The storm responsible for this winter weather is just now beginning to form. So, the track of a storm that hasn't even formed yet will continue to have major questions. The models have been forecasting this to close off and track well south of Kansas City. Before this happens, however, we have a strong cold front that will move through later today and tonight. And, then before the storm closes off we will have a very good chance of a wide band of heavy precipitation moving slowly through by Saturday morning. Here is the 500 mb forecast (18,000 feet up) valid at 1 PM Saturday:
It is very important that the storm hasn't closed off at this point. We are in south flow aloft with many disturbances being generated and lifting north over the colder surface air. The main storm is forming over Texas, as seen in the red area, and this will be closing off into the main upper level low. By 1 AM Sunday morning the low has completely closed off and look at the 700 mb reflection of it (10,000 feet up). The expansive area of moisture rotating around this storm is very important. Where will this well defined northern edge be located. This model has the northern edge just north of Kansas City. This would imply aread of precipitation continuing into Saturday night. And, if this is right there would be tremendous amounts of snow where it is snowing the entire time.
These next two maps show the precipitation type forecast by the NAM model. I didn't post it, but by 1 AM tonight the precipitation type is already snow from around Olathe to Raytown northward. This first band of snow is likely going to produce 2 to 5 inch amounts from Kansas City north and west by sunrise. Take a look at the forecast for 1 PM Saturday:
And, here is the forecast precipitation type for 1 AM Sunday. Notice the freezing rain/sleet from the Lake of the Ozark's area, and notice that there is a well defined cut off at Kansas City Saturday night.
Now, the track of the storm is still uncertain. If the storm tracks just slightly farther south (50 miles), then Kansas City's precipitation would shut off early Saturday. But, if it goes slightly farther north (50 miles), then we could have a major snowstorm. I said this last night and I still believe it, somewhere between Kansas City and Oklahoma City will likely have around a 20 inch snowfall from this storm. We will have to pay very close attention to this.
Our forecast as of 10 AM:
- 2-5 inches of snow between now and noon Saturday mostly north and west of an Olathe to Raytown line
- 2-8 inches of snow between noon Saturday and Sunday morning south of and Olathe to Raytown line
- Any one location can expect somewhere in that 2 to 8 inch range
The precipitation may change to rain Saturday night into Sunday as warmer air gets wrapped up into the storm.
There are still a lot of questions that need answers. We will be working on the finer details of this forecast on our weathecasts tonight!
Have a great day! Let us know if you have any questions. We are currently analyzing all of the data.
Gary
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Good early morning everyone,
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the southern part of the KC metro area which included Johnson county Kansas. This is a very complex storm and this forecast is anything but certain. There are two parts to the storm and we will go over the details soon.
Update:
Part 1 of this storm will be arriving tonight into early Saturday. A band of rain and snow will form northwest and west of Kansas City this evening. There will be a rain/snow line becoming established within the viewing area before 9 PM and then this will very slowly shift southeast. It may take until 6 AM Saturday to get as far east as Lee's Summit, MO. This first wave of precipitation may then shift east and south of the metro area Saturday morning, but it depends on the track of the main storm system.
Part 2 of this storm is the main storm system. The overnight data went back to a far south solution of the upper level low. This farther south solution would cut off the precipitation quite rapidly Saturday, but is this track right? If the storm tracks so far south, then the cold air source will fade as warmer air gets wrapped around the storm. This could change any precipitation back over to rain Saturday night and Sunday. Can you see how tricky this is? The track of the main low is very important.
There is a chance of 2 to 5 inches of snow with part one north and west of Kansas City. And, with so many questions about part two of this storm I will wait for the new data before making some conclusions. So, check back in later this morning.
Watch NBC Action News all morning for updates as our weather team brings you Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast.
Gary
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Good late evening bloggers,
A very interesting and unusual weather situation is now developing. The storm that is going to be responsible for creating many forecast problems is just now beginning to develop over the inland areas of the northwestern states. The latest NAM model has come out with another rather snowy solution. Our in-house model, Powercast, is forecasting 6 inches of snow around Kansas City. I think this is entirely possible, and some spots will likely get much more than this total, but will it be near Kansas City, or will it be to our southwest?
This is a very complex storm and it won't really even come together until sometime Friday evening with a rain/snow line developing northwest of Kansas City. There will be parts to this storm like others we have seen this winter. It is likely the Grand Finale of the winter season.
I will add more thoughts right after the 10 PM weathercast on NBC Action News.
More thoughts:
I just finished my weathercast and went for 2 to 6 inches of snow Friday night into Saturday morning, and then left the door open for possibly more if the storm takes the right track over the weekend. There will still be a very slow moving rain/snow line Friday night. How far south will it get during part one of this storm?
Have a great night and we will discuss this in the morning. Watch Brett and George through the morning Friday on NBC Action News as we analyze this complex storm.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
This is such a tough forecast for Friday night through Sunday. I took the angle at 5 PM to talk about how nice it is going to be tomorrow and just touched upon the details of the storm. But, I am struggling with doing it this way. Our in-house computer models have come out with more snow than I thought they would forecast. So, I am going to show one of these possible solutions at 6 PM.
What do you all think? What angle should I take? Have a nice evening. We are working on the weathercast for the 10 PM Newscast.
Gary
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Good afternoon bloggers,
The morning model runs of the NAM and GFS only complicate the forecast. The GFS took the upper low way down to the south. The NAM has a very snowy solution. I lean in the direction of the GFS, however.
There are many scenarios to consider. But, if the upper low ends up where the 12z run of the GFS model forecasts it to go, then we will end up with very little if any snowfall accumulation and a lot less rain. This model has just as much precipitation forecast as I posted in the last blog. It is just place much farther south due to the new track.
It is a beautiful day! Friday looks pretty nice too!
- Let's enjoy the March Madness as the NCAA tournament is getting under way.
- Let's enjoy this gorgeous March day.
- Let's enjoy the challenge of forecasting this storm.
- And, let's keep our emotions in check today!
We will be working on some special graphics for the weathercasts tonight on NBC Action News in HD. Have a great day! I won't be doing a blog update until sometime later tonight or Friday. We have to be careful about reacting to every model run. I will be monitoring the blog and answering as many questions as I can.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast!
Good morning bloggers,
It is going to be the nicest day of the year so far, in fact, the nicest day in months. Sunshine will break out. It won't be that windy, and the temperatures will jump well into the 60s. It has been 129 days since Kansas City last saw 70º. We should fall just short today!
Then, there is a major change! A strong weekend storm is now being forecast by most computer models. Let's begin with a very important fact: This storm has not even formed yet. You can't even see it on a satellite picture at this moment! It won't even begin developing until sometime tonight into Friday. A ridge is going to be amplifying over the eastern Pacific Ocean today. A disturbance will begin digging southeast and intensifying near the Idaho/Montana/Washington borders later today. This is the system we will begin tracking tonight, and you can see it below:
Most computer models are now coming into line with a solution that will form a slowly moving closing off upper level low. As discussed yesterday morning, the track of this upper level low is critical to what we experience at the surface. Take a look at where the 06z GFS now tracks the upper level low, and the ECMWF (European model) is closely in line with this solution. But, this doesn't mean that this is the final track. It isn't:
If the storm takes this south track, then warmer air will wrap around the storm and it will shut off the snow potential in some areas. This is just one of the tricks the storm is already playing on meteorologists. This is likely going to be a rather wet storm, but if it tracks any farther south, then Kansas City will quickly be left out of most of the precipitation and snow. If it tracks just a bit farther north, then we could have one of the biggest snowstorms we have ever seen. Only a slight change in the track can be the difference between these two extremes. Take a look at how much precipitation is forecast by the 06z GFS and keep in mind that the northwestern part of this huge precipitation shield is likely mostly snow:
So, there are still a lot of questions, and we have another 30 hours to answer them before the first raindrop or snowflake falls:
- Will there be a lead band of heavy precipitation Friday night before the storm even closes off? If there is will it be rain or snow?
- Where will the storm bottom out before drifting east and northeast?
- If the storm tracks farther south, then warmer air will wrap in, so how much of the precipitation will be snow?
I am now convinced that this is going to be a closing off upper low. There hasn't been a storm this season that hasn't started spinning around and slowing down. This one will fit the pattern. But, the track and strength may still be big questions as we move into Friday night. This could be anything from a dusting to a major snowfall accumulation within the viewing area. We will try to put some numbers to it tonight. This could be our last really good chance of snow this season.
So, what do I think will happen? I will tell you this. I have concerns on the track. I know I have already said this, but the track is crucial. If it tracks any farther south than this GFS model I plotted for this blog, then we will not get much snow at all. But, if it tracks farther north then we could have one of the biggest snowstorms in KC history. There is a lot on the line here. And, I am just going to wait another few hours before I make a more specific forecast. I didn't really answer that question did I?
Have a great day. We will be working on the details of this forecast today and tonight. Watch NBC Action News at 11 AM, 5, 6, and 10 PM. We will have the most high resolution and detailed forecast prepared for you tonight.
Gary
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Good late evening bloggers,
Please don't jump to any conclusions based on the major storm predicted by the GFS model. There are still warning signs.
The latest NAM and GFS models again came out with very different solutions for the weekend storm. The GFS has a slow moving closing off low. The NAM has a fast moving series of waves. If there is a compromise then we will have a significant snowstorm, but I can still see possible solutions from no accumulation to a whole bunch.
We will discuss this in the morning. Now, let's try to get a good night of sleep. And, we can wake up and see how Brett Anthony handles this beginning at 5 AM on NBC Action News. Check back in around sunrise! I will be on Sports Radio 810 WHB at 8 AM in the morning if you are on your way to work.
Gary
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Good late morning and early afternoon bloggers,
It is drying out, but the sun isn't coming out. Our forecast high of 48º may be reached, but it will be a cool St. Patrick's Day.
The new models are still coming out. The 12 NAM is predicting a major snowstorm while the GFS does NOT! In fact the GFS has almost nothing more than a cold front blowing through with perhaps some snow as any precipitation ends. We will have to see if other computer models agree with this solution. The GFS may be way off, or it could have the right idea. I don't have a feel for it yet. This latest GFS solution may be the extreme case where it just phased the flow way too much, but it could happen.
New data update:
At 4 PM the new NAM model strongly trended into the GFS solution. Remember, this is still two days away.
We will look deeper into this later today and tonight on our weathercasts and in the blog!
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast!
Good early morning bloggers,
A weak disturbance will be passing through this morning with some rain showers and possibly even a few wet snowflakes mixed in. By later today the sky should begin to clear!
Happy St. Patrick's Day! The 00z (7 PM) model runs came out with a solution that would bring us a major snowstorm in the viewing area on Saturday. It is still to early to make this forecast, so hang on tight! And, it fits with the LRC almost perfectly. Go to http://www.lrcweather.com/ and click on the blog over there to see how well it fits from a guest blogger from the past!
There are many questions to be answered. I will write a new blog later this morning. In the mean time we must realize that this is a storm that hasn't even started developing yet. It doesn't even exist at this moment. It is a storm that will be forming as it approaches us which will make it suspect for the next two to three days. It is just very difficult to get it to snow in Kansas City, but not as difficult this winter. We have had 35 inches of snow already. Take a look at the next three maps:
If the upper low takes the track on the middle map, then Kansas City will have a major snowstorm. Most of the viewing area could end up with accumulating snow with that farther south track and the surface set-up that will be associated with a storm of this strength. The track and strength of the upper level storm will continue to be very much in question for another day or two. There are solutions out there from some of the models that don't even have an upper low at all:
There would be just one band of precipitation moving through and ending early Saturday if the above map verifies. We will look deeper into the new models and trends later today.
As you can see below, reaching 70º in March is expected. It is almost a sure thing. I wonder how many years we haven't hit 70º during this third month of the year. It has been 70º or higher at least three times every year for the past five years I looked at. One year ago today it was 80º. And, it snowed just 11 days later. It hasn't been 70º since November 8th, 130 days ago!
Have a great morning. Be safe! Don't drink and drive. A Drunk Driving Watch is in effect today on this St. Patrick's Day! Check back in later today for a new blog. Let us know if you have any thoughts or questions as we share this weather together!
Gary
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