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Good morning bloggers,
An arcing line of thunderstorms formed overnight and is inching eastward on this Friday morning. How far east will this line get? Here is the 6 AM radar image:
And, here is the radar image two hours later at 8 AM. Thunderstorms keep developing in a warm advection lifting zone ahead of the capping layer trying to push in. Until these anchor thunderstorms weaken, which should happen in a few hours, the complex of showers and thunderstorms will stay alive and inch ever so slowly east creating a wet Friday morning:
This morning area of showers and thunderstorms will shift east, fall apart, and weaken by early this afternoon leaving a cloudy and wet first half of the day. If you have plans for the pool just delay it until sometime this afternoon. The clouds will begin breaking up and it will end up rather warm and muggy by mid to late afternoon with dewpoint temperatures likely rising to near 70 degrees. After the sun breaks out the attention will then be directed to where the surface features are lining up for tonight. This is a rather rare July 4th weekend of weather starting with this mornings rain/thunderstorms. And, then possibly having a cold front moving through during the day on Saturday.
The rest of the weekend forecast continues to evolve as well. There is a warm front that is slowly lifting north, but this mornings rain will keep it south of the KC metro area most of the day. Where it is located this evening will help decide who gets the most rain tonight, and whether or not there will be some severe weather. We are analyzing the data now and will update you later on this afternoon or evening in the blog and on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight in HD. Have a great holiday!
Gary
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Good Thursday morning bloggers,
A small complex of thunderstorms tracked across central and southern Kansas early this morning and we had a few showers on the northeast edge of this complex. One shower made it all the way to the state line in Overland Park, and then a second heavier one created this beautiful sunrise rainbow at 6:10 AM. I awakened early today and didn't even know what day it was for a few seconds. Then, I looked outside and saw that it was raining very lightly at around 6 AM and it hit me that it was Thursday. I took this picture and then turned up the contrast so you could see the rainbow a bit better. You can see the rainshaft to the south and the rainbow just north of the heavier rain. The base of this shower was way up at around 10,000 feet up:
The weather pattern is wanting to set up into summer, but the LRC refuses to let go. This year's weather pattern continues to cycle and the last few weeks of this same weather pattern that set up last fall will be interesting to watch unfold. I do believe there will be at least a small heat wave sometime in the middle of the month, but it may be short lived if the pattern continues (go to www.LRCWeather.com and click on the blog over there for more details on what is in our near future). Let's discuss this holiday weekend forecast. Look at the surface forecast from the 00z GFS run valid on Saturday morning:
There are a few things to notice on the surface forecast map above. First of all the surface low is rather weak with a central pressure of 1011 mb (29.80" of mercury). The barometric pressure is a measure of the weight of the atmosphere above you at any given time. This weak surface low is a sure sign of summer. Hey, it is July for crying out loud but this same weather pattern continues to cycle and we have yet to really have summer settle in. The jet stream reaches its weakest and farthest north position by early August and then it will begin a very gradual change and shift south from later August into October and this is when the old LRC falls apart and the new one begins. Anyway, what does this mean for the holiday weekend. Look below at the rainfall forecast for tonight through Saturday:
A weak warm front will be forming over Kansas tonight into Friday. The next complex of thunderstorms is likely going to be a bit stronger than this mornings and right over our viewing area early Friday. Then, a third complex of thunderstorms should form Friday night into early Saturday, but this one should push the front south and we may have light north winds by Saturday allowing for a dry evening for fireworks. At least this is how it looks right now. We will be tracking these weather developments on NBC Action News in HD and preparing some special weather graphics for our weathercasts.
I am going to be broadcasting live from the new tennis venue downtown at 5 and 6 PM. Our national tennis team, the Explorers, has its debut match tonight starting at 7 PM. Come by, have some fun, and say hi. Grandstand seats are $25 ($15 for kids 3-12). Have a great day. Let us know if you have any questions.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
We have a rather complex forecast on our hands for the holiday weekend. I do believe it will rain Friday and Saturday, but if the timing is right then we will still have a pretty good Independence Day. One thing that is fairly certain....it won't be sizzling hot this Fourth of July!
We will be debuting our "Uggy Scale" tonight on NBC Action News at 5 PM! If you have any ideas of how to rate the scale please let us know! Go back a few blog entries to see what other bloggers had to say.
Here is the scale we are using at 5 PM from one of our bloggers.
0 - Decent
2 - Tolerable
4 - Annoying
6 - Soupy
8 - Excessive
10 - Ridiculous!
We will continue working on the "Uggy" scale. Anyway, so what lies ahead? We have now moved into July and the heights continue to rise. The models have been responding to the higher heights with weaker flow and a slightly different look to the weekend forecast every time we look at the models. The best chance for rain this weekend will still be in the late night and early morning hours. I will do a more extensive blog in the morning.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
We just finished putting the Windy the Weather Dog promos and story on our website. It is hard to believe that these aired ten years ago. Click on the link below to read the story and watch the video:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story/10-Year-Anniversary-of-Windy-Promos/3AVectwyLEmr726miqt66A.cspx
It is a beautiful evening as we continue to be in that ridge of high pressure as shown in the last blog entry. We will be talking about the next change on NBC Action News tonight at 1 PM in HD! And, you can go to www.LRCWeather.com for details on how this pattern is still directly related to the same one that set up back in the fall. Look for an updated blog after we have a chance to analyze the new data on Wednesday afternoon.
Gary
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Good Tuesday morning bloggers,
A cold front is moving through the viewing area this morning. When fronts come in from the north and northeast (the backdoor) we usually see almost no weather impacts other than a wind shift and a cooler and drier surge of air & quite often a band of clouds. This is what is going on today. Look at the surface ridge that extends all the way up to the surface high centered near Hudson Bay in Canada:
We are going to start the "Uggy" scale this week. We took the M out of muggy to come up with the name. This scale is going to describe how humid it is outside and I am asking for your help today. Here is how we are going to calculate the Uggy scale. 78 degree dewpoints will be the top of the Uggy Scale or level 10, and 58 degrees will be the bottom of the Uggy scale or level 0. We will take the dewpoint temperature and subtract 58 then divide by 2. So, a 68 degree dewpoint would be 68-58=10. Then, take the 10 and divide by 2 to get the level of 5 on the Uggy scale. We need 6 terms to go on the scale and this is where I would like your help. What should we call level 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10? Let us know today and we will choose the terms by Wednesday night at 10 when we show the Uggy scale on the air.
Here is a picture taken by cell phone at 99th and Metcalf Saturday evening. Jenny Eriksen took the picture looking south at the very heavy downpour moving into Overland Park. Thanks for the picture Jenny! Now, when will it rain again? We will have all of the details on NBC Action News today at 5, 6, and 10 PM.
Have a great day. Look for a blog update later today as soon as I get the Windy the weather dog promos from 1999 on our website.
Gary
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Good morning bloggers,
As Jeff Penner wrote yesterday, I am back at the maps tonight. It has been 10 years since those Windy the weather dog commercials ran while I switched stations to become Chief Meteorologist at NBC Action News. I may get those promos out and run them on our website this week. Do you want to see them?
The week is starting out calm and beautiful, very different than last week where we experienced small thunderstorms with microbursts as they colapsed; a line of thunderstorms came in from the northwest on Wednesday with another microburst or two; And, then Saturday night we had a strong to severe thunderstorm develop right near Olathe and then it split and one cell drifted over Overland Park before weakening over Lee's Summit. Quarter size hail fell at Town Center Plaza. One inch of rain fell in some spots from this cell and then as the thunderstorms weakened we had a beautiful sunset ending the week of interesting late June weather. Here is the picture I took Saturday evening as the thunderstorm was passing by. You can see a lowering just west of the main rain shaft in the rain free base of the cell:
And, here is a picture taken by Paul Shehan near Lenexa. You can see the rain shafts being illuminated by the setting sun:
So, what lies ahead? There is a backdoor front heading our way from the northeast. A backdoor front is one that does not come in from the usual direction, the north or northwest. If it is coming in from an easterly component then we call it a backdoor front. There is a pre-frontal trough approaching us today and we will have a good chance of reaching 90 degrees today ahead of this front, but with very low humidity. Then, a cooler airmass will expand over us later tonight into Wednesday. Here is the surface forecast valid at 4 PM today:
We will be in northwest flow all week, so depending on moisture return we could end up in another pattern very favorable for MCS activity by Thursday and possibly into the holiday weekend. We will blog more about this in the coming days. Be sure to watch NBC Action News in HD as we track these weather developments and changes.
I just got back from Portland, OR where the AMS Broadcast conference was located. I did learn a lot and will be applying it in the coming days and weeks as we strive to bring you the best weather experience and weather graphics every day and night. I have a lot of new ideas as we move forward and I think you will notice some of the subtle changes in the next few months. Go back a couple of blog entries to see the pictures from the conference in Portland! I didn't realize that I would be able to see two volcanos from my room: Mt. Hood and Mt. St. Helens were clearly visible. I stared for hours at the two volcanos and interesting clouds surrounding and developing near them.
Have a fantastic day!
Gary
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Good Sunday evening bloggers,
Well, the last 7-10 days have been crazy. We caught a classic microburst on our American Century time lapse last Tuesday. Then we saw some odd lowerings on our Nicklaus Golf club camera on Saturday. This is just a small sampling on what has been going on. Today is thhe first day where there is no T-Storm threat and no threat for the next few following days. Enjoy the very nice weather and maybe give this poor air conditioners a break!
The reason we will be enjoying such nice weather is there is going to be a huge, slow-moving upper low over the Great Lakes through Wednesday. This will put our area in north-northwest flow which is suppressing the high dewpoints south. So, any fronts or disturbances have no moisture to work with.
Monday will warm into the upper 80s ahead of a weak backdoor front with Tuesday & Wednesday back into the low 80s.
OUR NEXT T-STORM CHANCES: These occur Thursday through Saturday as the Great Lakes low pulls away, allowing the dewpoints to climb. The increasing moisture along with a northwest flow (disturbances embedded) may create some MCS's across the Plains & Midwest. It is too early to tell whether our area will be in the path of any of these. We will have to see of this pattern will affect the big holiday weekend.
We will be following this all week. I will have my early thinking on the 4th of July forecast tonight at 5 & 10 PM.
Gary is back at the maps tomorrow (Anybody remember that promo from 10 years ago?)!
Have a great Sunday night,
Jeff
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6:45 PM update:
Very heavy thunderstorms continue to dump rain at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour over southern Overland Park crossing the state line into southwestern Jackson and northern Cass counties. There is a chance of a microburst wind in excess of 60 mph but since the cold front has pushed south of the front this risk will shift farther south as the cells move away. Jeff Penner will be showing an interesting time-lapse of this thunderstorm which did have some lowerings. Watch NBC Action News at 10 PM in HD tonight for more details! Here is a picture of the cell as it broke away from the cold front drifting over Lee's Summit. This is looking north over Overland Park, KS, and you can see one of the lowerings at 7:15 PM:
Good evening bloggers,
A cold front is moving through the KC metro area at 5 PM. It has already passed through KCI Airport with north winds at 14 mph and this front is steadily pushing southeast at around 25 mph, so the entire metro area will have the north wind shift by 7 PM. There are some pre-frontal and post-frontal thunderstorms developing this evening. There is a slight risk for some severe thunderstorms this evening with the main threat being some microburst winds. The thunderstorms forming ahead of the front have the best chance of being severe. The post frontal thunderstorms will most likely produce some lightning and a few heavy downpours, but the threat of a microburst is much less in these post frontal thunderstorms.
Once again, thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the front have the potential for a microburt wind of over 60 mph. The front is moving steadily south and this threat will shift into southern parts of the viewing area during the evening hours. There is a weak upper level disturbance approaching from the west and this will keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms behind the front for a few hours as well.
We will try to get the comments back on soon. You can email our weather account: Weather@NBCActionNews.com and let us know if you experience any severe weather or just leave a comment here as I think I did get it fixed. A severe thunderstorm warning was just issued for Johnson and Miami counties for the cell that has formed right on the front just south of Olathe.
Gary
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Good Saturday morning bloggers,
The LLTI (Lezak's Leaving Town Index) was in full force this week. Just a few hours after I got on the airplane for Portland, OR a mini supercell thunderstorm formed and tracked across eastern Kansas with perfect structure and perhaps one small tornado with no damage. And, then we had thunderstorms with microburst winds on days that the models had no rain predicted even close to Kansas City. I was in training for our ESP:Live radar system when the trainer zoomed into our local area to show us how to use some of the new features (we will be sharing these with you in the coming weeks and months). It was very difficult to concentrate during the training session when Kansas City was about to have a slow moving line of thunderstorms move in. Tim, the Weather Central trainer, was doing a great job but I had a hard time concentrating. Look at the entire nation on Wednesday as there were thunderstorms in only one spot......HERE!
Here is a shot of what we were tracking on our computers as we were testing out some of the new storm tracking tools.
I wasn't able to concentrate, but I do have a lot of notes to study this week. Here is one last picture and if you know me, you know that listening to Tim was the last thing on my mind at this moment. There were around 20 other meteorologists from around the nation, but I was the only one who cared about these thunderstorms.
Now, onto today's weather. First of all, our weather team did a fantastic job covering the severe weather threats during the week, and the Excessive Heat Warning that is still in effect today. I know Jeremy has talked about this being a heat wave, but it is NOT, not to get on Jeremy, but this is just a pet peeve of mine. A heat wave in our local area is defined to be 3 consecutive days where the high temperature reaches at least 95 degrees. We have not had three consecutive days of 95 degree official highs at any location, so this will be classified as just a hot spell, and not a heat wave. You can see the highs at KCI airport below showing that it wasn't even close to being a heat wave. Today will be hot with temperatures getting close to 95 degrees, but will we have thunderstorms?
Highs this week:
- Last Saturday: 80 degrees
- Sunday: 92
- Monday: 94
- Tuesday: 97
- Wednesday: 91
- Thursday: 92
- Friday: 91
There is a very slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. If thunderstorms do form it will be later this afternoon as the cap will take a while to break. Where will the front be located at 7 PM? Here is the RUC model surface forecast valid at 7 PM this evening. Any threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be limited to near this wind shift line/cold front:
It will sizzle out ahead of the front today as temperatures may reach 100 degrees in some spots south of Kansas City. If thunderstorms form the main threat will once again be microburst winds as the thunderstorms pulse up and down. The chance of thunderstorms in Kansas City today is around 20%, but the probability goes a bit higher for areas south and southeast of the metro area. As soon as the wind shifts to the northwest you will know the threat of any severe weather will be over. We will be tracking this situation for you all day. Jeremy Nelson now gets the next 7 days off, and meteorologist Jeff Penner is filling in this weekend.
Have a great day! I get back to work on Monday.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for the latest on the weekend forecast!
Good evening! I've received some emails about the comments section of the blog, it will remain off until Saturday when Gary blogs.
Let's dig in and talk some weather! I glanced at the Springfield, MO radar and noticed a nice outflow from a tiny shower/t-storm in that area. This storm must have been almost stationary to have a nice outflow in an oval shape around the cell.
The weekend will see two different airmasses across the region. Saturday will be hot and humid, while Sunday will be cooler and less humid. For Saturday highs will be in the 90s for a 7th straight day, but a cold front could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the region by mid to late afternoon. The chance is 30% right now, but any storm that forms could be strong to severe.
Behind this cold front highs will drop into the low to mid 80s for Sunday, and dew points to close the weekend may be in the 50s! Look at the NAM forecast map...'Free Air Conditioning' is on the way!
Have a great weekend and thank you for stopping by the Action Weather Blog!
Jeremy
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Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10pm for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast!
Good evening bloggers! The comments on the blog are turned off and will be for a while, feel free to email me if you have a weather question.
Last night's storms produced heavy downpours, strong winds, and vivid lighting. Shane Kirk caught this picture of lightning near La Cygne, KS. Shane was close to Adrian when he got the picture. The storm fizzled before reaching him. Awesome shot!
Outside of an isolated shower or storm before midnight, most areas should stay dry this evening. The chance of a t-storm is really under 10%. The focus for Friday will be the extreme heat with highs in the mid-90s and dew points in the mid to maybe upper 70s!
Below is the NAM dew point forecast map for Friday. The high heat and humidity will produce heat indices in the 105-110 range once again.
The heat should finally break late Saturday when a cold front pushes through the region. This front will drop dew points back into the low 60s and daytime highs into the 80s. A little more typical for this time of year. The cold front, depending on its timing, could spark a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon or evening. We'll iron out the timing of the front on Friday.
Have a great night and thank you for stopping by the weather blog!
Jeremy
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Good Thursday morning,
We've had a few thunderstorms roll through western Missouri early today. A few heavy downpours and some gusty winds are expected. The RUC has these t-showers sticking around through mid-morning.
I think more showers or thunderstorms will be possible again late this afternoon as a weak cold front clips the area. The front may send a couple of clusters of thunderstorms through metro KC between 5 & 9pm.
On top of the thunderstorms, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended until Saturday night at 7pm. But then a major change occurs, Take a look at the Jet Stream Forecast for early next week.
An upper low takes over and sends a cooler, almost north flow our way. That should bring us a much deserved break from the heat & humidity through mid-week next week.
Have a great day,
Brett
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Watch NBC Action News at 10 p.m. and Thursday morning from 5-7 a.m. for the latest on thunderstorm chances and the heat!
Good evening everyone. Thank for posting pictures, rain totals, and storm reports to the blog! The thunderstorms really weakened as the moved to the southeast of Kansas City. If you ever look at computer model pages, the RUC did a great job with the forecast.
For the rest of tonight the showers should be ending by midnight. If you have a rain total please pass it along and we will do our best to get it on the air or in the blog.
Many viewers sent in photos of the storms as they passed by the area.
The first comes from Gerard Brown of Kansas City, MO around 43rd & McGee. A great shot of cloud to ground lightning!
Thanks for stopping by the weather blog in huge numbers again today! Don't forget to show your friends, family, and co-workers the exclusive microburst video!
Jeremy
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Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for a look at LIVE:ESP as we track severe thunderstorms!
If you take storm pictures today please share them with us at weather@nbcactionnews.com
********************Watch Update****************************
Here is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that is in effect until 11 p.m. for our area.
Here is a picture from Hiawatha, KS of when the storm moved through this afternoon. That area picked up 2.75" of rain in 1 hour! The winds were also around 50mph. A big thank you to Harriet Curtis!
Good Wednesday bloggers. Catching a microburst on video is extremely rare, now getting 2 different angles of the same microburst on video is about like finding a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow! Truly incredible! Both vidoes are the most popular on our website right now.
The video is making the rounds and we received this email today from Meteorologist Tom Dulong of the FAA Acadamy in Oklahoma City, OK:
I am the Meteorologist-In-Charge of the National Weather Service Training Unit for the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. We train air traffic control students about weather hazards, which contributes to improved safety for commercial traffic across the country. I was lucky enough to have seen your “EXCLUSIVE Video of Microburst near Johnson/Wyandotte County Border”, which was aired last night by your station.
I do understand that most of the on-screen and on-line material you display is proprietary. However, this video is indeed unique since micro-bursts are rarely captured on video. Our current training materials contain only still images of this phenomena and associated annotations. This video would be a great way to impress new controllers on how quickly a microburst can occur and potentially take down an aircraft.
Would you be willing to release to us a copy of this video (in higher resolution than the thumbnail on your web page)?
We are thrilled to share this video with the FAA & NWS to help in training controllers, spotters, etc.!
More thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon, evening, and tonight. Any of which develop could be severe, with the main threat being strong winds. I'll update the blog with more thoughts later on. Until then check out the microburst video!
Jeremy
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Watch NBC Action News HD at 10 p.m. and again Wednesday from 5-7 a.m. for exclusive video of a microburst which produced damaging winds in the metro!
Good evening bloggers. Tiny isolated thunderstorms which are very slow moving have produced a few microbursts across the region tonight. This is rain-cooled air collapsing and accelerating toward the ground in a ball shape. As it hits the ground it produces strong winds...in this case 60-70 mph which spread out.
The result has been trees and powerlines being downed in some areas. If you have pictures of damage or severe weather please pass them along. One picture from the Liberty, MO area shows a tree down on a car.
Power is also out in parts of the metro...in areas outside the metro we have gotten reports of power outages in Sedalia.
These thunderstorms could still produce wind gusts of 40 to maybe 60 mph tonight. Best chance of seeing thunderstorms is near and east of the stateline. The one piece of good news is the outflow boundary which moved through Kansas City and has dropped our dew points a little and cooled our temperatures into the 70s. The extreme heat will be back in full force again on Wednesday before more storm fire in the afternoon, but the widespread rain chance should hold off until very late Wednesday into early Thursday.
Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather Blog. Make sure to check out the microburst video on our website.
Jeremy
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