NBC Action Weather Blog

Quick Update

Jeremy WxPlus — Mon, 12 May 2008 02:31:00 GMT

Watch NBC Action News HD at 10pm and Monday morning from 5-7am for the latest weather information and live reports from southwest Missouri!

I had a chance to watch our lead storm chaser Sean Wilson's footage today of the severe weather that occurred over southwest Missouri on Saturday. All I can say is he has some incredible video that I haven't seen anywhere. We are including some of that footage in our newscasts. A huge thank you to Sean for sharing his footage. For all the tornado damage surveys in southwest Missouri check out the Springfield NWS site.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/

Now a quick look ahead to our weather. Monday looks good outside of gusty winds during the afternoon...probably around 25-30mph again. But, the high temperatures should be about 71-76 across the viewing area with sunny to partly cloudy skies. The next rain chance comes in with a front Tuesday afternoon. The models vary on the front timing(not a huge surprise) and the amount of moisture available at the surface(dew points). As a result I'm thinking the best severe weather chances will once again occur over Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri, north Texas, and southern Kansas. Clouds may also be an issue for areas near Kansas City as right now Tuesday looks mostly cloudy.

Gary will have an update on the work week forecast in the blog first thing Monday morning! It's been a long weekend and I'm ready to enjoy a nice day on Monday!

Jeremy

Storm Recap...Happy Mother's Day!

Jeremy WxPlus — Sun, 11 May 2008 11:43:00 GMT

Watch NBC Action News HD at 8am & 10pm as we will have live reports from the hardest hit areas of southwest Missouri!

Deadly storms pushed through the Plains and Midwest last evening killing at least 19 people. These storms produced strong, long track tornadoes and some of the damage appears that the strongest tornadoes may be rated EF 3 or 4. Some of our bloggers had family in the path of these storms and our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected. I want to send a huge thank you to Jacob of Lee's Summit as a relative of his that lives in southwest Missouri shared her tornado experience last night on NBC Action News.

Here is a list storm reports on Saturday from the SPC.

Our lead storm chaser Sean Wilson once again was where the action was located. Sean appeared on our morning show this morning sharing if video of the storm. We will air more of Sean's video tonight at 10pm and also during our newscasts on Monday. You can always see Sean's chase information at www.blownawaytours.com

Here in the metro winds gusted to around 50 mph overnight. The peak wind gust at KCI was 47 mph! The strong non-thunderstorm winds did down trees in spots and produced some damage to mobile homes in east Kansas City.

For Mother's Day we can expect winds to gradually let up, but still expect winds in the neighborhood of 20-35 mph this morning...and then diminishing to 15 mph late this afternoon. Highs with sunshine should be in the low 60s. And tonight will be clear with temps in the lower 40s.

The entire NBC Action Weather Plus team wishes all the Mom's a Happy Mother's Day!

Jeremy

Evening Update...WATCH UPDATE

Jeremy WxPlus — Sat, 10 May 2008 22:19:00 GMT

Watch NBC Action News HD at 6 & 10pm as we track thunderstorms on LIVE:ESP!

**********************UPDATE**********************

Tornado Watch has expired. Storm are marginally severe in a few spots with reports of penny and nickel size hail. Hail and heavy rain will be the main threat with the storms as they push east into areas like Warrensburg, Chillicothe, Marshall, & Sedalia this evening.

Once again parts of the Missouri have been hit hard by tornadoes. At least 4 fatalities have been reported in southwest MO. 3 in Newton County and 1 in Jasper County.

*****************************************************

The Tornado Watch continues until 7 p.m. for areas just south of KC. With highs in the low 60s in most spots today, cloudy skies, and dew points generally below 60 degrees I think the main threat with the storms that will push thru this evening will be hail since most of the convection will be elevated(versus surface based) If you do see hail with some of the storms please let us know. Check out the strong cold front headed our way! This will bring a big change in the form of gusty winds to the region tonight and the first half of Sunday. Wind Advisories are in effect for the viewing area into Sunday with gust expected to reach 50 mph in spots.

Here is the surface setup shortly after 5pm Saturday. Notice the 70 degree dew points close to southwest Missouri. And also the air temperature of 87 degrees in Tulsa, OK. While back in Nebraska it is in the 30s with SNOW!

To me it looks like the biggest threat will be where the moist air resides near the Missouri/Kansas/Oklahoma borders. There have already been some supercells that have prompted tornado warnings in those locations.

Our lead storm chaser Sean Wilson is in southwest Missouri this evening and will give us an update on his chase tonight or Sunday!

For this evening showers and thunderstorms will push through...some hail and strong winds may accompany some of the storms. Heavy downpours are also likely. I won't rule out a tornado since the watch is in place...but greatest threat for tornadoes looks to be well to the south of KC. This is also what the SPC is thinking based on an update of the Tornado Watch.

If you have rain totals later this evening or tonight please pass them along! Thank you and make sure to watch NBC Action News at 6 & 10 pm for the latest on the storms!

Jeremy

Severe Thunderstorm Potential...updated at 3:15 PM

glezak — Sat, 10 May 2008 18:04:00 GMT

3:15 PM update: The surface low has continued developing and sagging south. It is forming west of Chanute Kansas, and this should keep the the tornado threat down near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders. We will likely see a few showers and thunderstorms form north of the low in our viewing area, but the main threat will be some hail.

Previous entry below:

Good afternoon bloggers,

A tornado watch has been issued for the southern half of our viewing area. There is very little immediate threat as the thunderstorms that formed this morning have now moved off to the east with a wave aloft. As we move through the afternoon, as discussed the past two days, a storm is going to begin rapidly developing and intensifying. We are in the developing area which makes it quite tricky. Thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon and then rapidly shift east and northeast this evening. By 9 PM the threat will have moved well off to the north and east. But, we will have to watch this situation closely between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight as the conditions come together for possible supercell thunderstorms. Large hail will be the main threat, especially for the elevated thunderstorms in the cooler air. The tornado threat is highest way down south near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders.

Here is the 1 PM surface map below:

Warm moist air is being pulled into the storm as it is just now coming together this afternoon. Will it be enough to trigger the big thunderstorms? Yes, but when will they form? As I said above, the best chance of them forming is between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight. Let's watch the surface low as it may sag southeast along the warm front as it will be affected by the much warmer air mass to the south.

Our newscast is on at 6 PM. So, watch NBC Action News at 6 PM as we track these developments. If severe weather threatens, then you know we will be there for you. Have a great afternoon, and stay with NBC Action News, we'll keep you advised.

Gary

Rain Today...Wind Tonight....Meso discussion

Jeremy WxPlus — Sat, 10 May 2008 12:18:00 GMT

Good afternoon bloggers,

The previous entry is below. The SPC has put us in a meso discussion as you can see below. There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon as this powerful storm begins developing. Large hail would be the main threat. We will be watching it closely for you, and update the blog if we see strong thunderstorms developing:

Previous entry below:

Watch NBC Action News HD today at 8am, 5, & 10pm as we track showers and thunderstorms on LIVE:ESP!

Good day bloggers! The weekend is here...but so is another storm system. As Gary mentioned earlier this week the longest stretch of dry days this Spring stands at 3!

Light rain and sprinkles are already showing up on LIVE:ESP this morning across parts of the area. These showers will likely weaken and pass thru the area this morning. The main area of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in during the afternoon. Best rain chances will occur from about 3-9pm. With cloudy to mostly cloudy skies in place today high temperatures will likely reach the mid 60s in most spots...maybe even cooler if skies remain cloudy. The clouds and cool temperatures should help to keep the severe weather threat to our south today...despite a strong cold front pushing into the region. If sunshine would break out for an extended time(2+ hours) then the slight risk area would possibly move farther north. The slight risk area from this morning's outlook does include parts of the southern viewing area. Main threat with these storms would be hail and strong winds.

Below is severe weather threat for today.

A major severe weather outbreak is likely from parts of Missouri to Kentucky and along parts of the Gulf Coast. This will be something for weather enthusiasts to keep an eye on.

The cold front will blast through our area this evening and behind the front winds will switch to the west-northwest and increase to 25-50mph! This will be one of those nights where the house rattles and creaks as the wind howls. Wind Advisories are in place for areas north of Kansas City, but will likely be extended across the entire area later today.

Here is the surface forecast map for early Sunday from the HPC.

Have a great day and make sure to have an alternate plan 'B' indoor activity planned for today in case rain impacts your outdoor plans.

Jeremy

Any severe weather threat on Saturday?

glezak — Sat, 10 May 2008 02:58:00 GMT

Good Friday Night in the Big Town!

We are analyzing the new data, and I am on the air in minutes. I will blog about the trends in the models for Saturday, as yet another storm is heading our way.

If the storm slows down just a bit on Saturday more low level moisture will be pulled into the storm. It is something we will talk about in the morning beginning at 7 AM during the Today show. Jeremy Nelson will have complete details at 8 AM. The GFS hasn't come out yet, and I am just wiped out. So, good night. Have a great weekend.

Gary

Unbelievable tornado video & Tornado/Landspout

glezak — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:23:00 GMT

Good evening everyone,

Look at the last entry for the details on the weekend storm, and watch NBC Action News as we track it over the weekend. But, I wanted to post these cool pictures from western Kansas that one of our viewers sent in. Doug Sindak was in western Kansas working, and saw this forming. This is likely a landspout type of tornado as it is coming out of the growing cumulonimbus tower.

Go to this link to see cars being lifted into the air! Wow!!!! What do you think?

http://www.whnt.com/Global/category.asp?C=6018&nav=menu108_1

And, here is the landspout tornado below:

"I was in western Kansas yesterday and came across the first Tornado of the sevre weather outbreak in Western Kansas. The Tornado was located in between Leoti & Tribune Kansas."

Have a great day!

Gary

Not your typical May weekend forecast

glezak — Fri, 09 May 2008 14:36:00 GMT

Happy Friday NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

We will be tracking a very strong developing storm on our newscasts through the weekend. Don't forget our weekend morning newscasts that begin at 8 AM on NBC Action News. And, before I go into this fascinating May weather pattern, I just want to thank all of the brave Kansas Citians who had their heads shaved yesterday helping the American Cancer Societies Hope Lodge, including young 8 year old Jacob. Here is the link to see the video:

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=353064@kshb.dayport.com

Now, onto our weather. As we move into mid-May there is a growing interest into this years LRC pattern that refuses to allow it to warm up. When we issued the winter forecast back in November I talked about Storm Track #2. We wondered if it would be the dominant feature. But, we didn't know that it would dominate the entire pattern until around December. From December on, viewers, friends, co-workers, have been asking me is it ever going to warm up. And, I have had an immediate answer each time of, "NO". This pattern refuses to allow a long term warming trend set up. We will still have some warm-ups, but they have always been brief so far. Only two days of near 80 degrees all year, thus far, with none in the forecast.

Storm Track #2 features a "long term" longwave trough that repeats over and over again at regularly scheduled periods as indicated in this years LRC pattern. Storm Track #2 wants you to see its eyes this weekend. Look below at the two maps:

This first map, above, is the forecast for Saturday afternoon. A very strong storm is developing as it drops into the "long term" longwave trough position just east of us. This longwave trough is responsible for most of the eastern tornadoes and southern Missouri flooding this season. As this storm develops, look how it just explodes as it moves into the trough position on the map below:

And, as a result, we have a good chance of a brief period of rain on Saturday afternoon, and then a windy, cold May day on Sunday as you can see on the surface map below:

We will be all over this on our weathercasts today and tonight, and through the weekend. Please try to watch. We will put our new Powercast (HD high resolution forecast model) to work this weekend.

Gary

A cold front is moving through

glezak — Fri, 09 May 2008 11:07:00 GMT

Good morning bloggers,

The main disturbance is now moving by with heavy rain north of I-70. There is a comma head of rain just north of Kansas City, near St. Joseph with more than one inch of rain likely if you are in this spinning area of rain. There is a trailing edge of this disturbance swinging across the Kansas City metro area. The next storm is approaching us on Saturday. We will blog about this storm later today. If you want to look ahead to next week, Brett Anthony has posted his thoughts on his blog. http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/brett_anthonys_blog/default.aspx

Look at the 6 AM surface map:

The low pressure area will be moving into central Missouri by late this morning and we will have a wind shift to the northwest. The surface low northwest of KC at 6 AM is directly under the upper level disturbance which has a spin of rain moving along and north of I-70. As the low moves past us later this morning, the wind will shift to the north with a temperature drop, then sunshine should return this afternoon creating a beautiful end to Friday.

Rainfall totals likely will vary from 0.10" to 1.00" up north where the rain is just pouring down this morning north of Kansas City.

Have a great day.

Gary

Kansas Thunderstorms and storm

glezak — Thu, 08 May 2008 22:06:00 GMT

Good evening bloggers,

What a day! I get back from being MC of the Shave to Save fundraiser to see a challenge between two of our favorite bloggers on a forecast for July 4th week. I will likely play the game as well.

And, there is a storm approaching, or are they thunderstorms? Storm, thunderstorms? Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. can all be called storms. But, I like to reserve the statement of "storm" for when a synoptic scale storm is developing. I am talking of the scale of 1,000 miles or more. So, there is a storm developing across Kansas tonight, but it is producing thunderstorms. Does this make sense?

How much rain will fall late tonight into Friday? And, the entire weather pattern is crazy, just following this years LRC and we will talk a bit more about the entire cool May weather pattern on the newscast tonight at 10 PM and more extensively in the blog Friday morning.

Look below at the three maps. The first map shows the two 850 mb lows, well developed at 1 AM tonight. The Kansas 850 low is just impressive enough that I am now strongly convinced that we will get a nice 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall very close by between 3 AM and 9 AM in the morning. I will talk about this tonight on the weathercast:

The above RUC model forecast is valid at 4 AM. A complex of thunderstorms will likely be rolling our way, and this model appears to be forecasting it well, although I expect it to be farther east than this forecast says.

Here is the rainfall forecast from the GFS model that just came out. It also is making, what I believe is a good forecast. The KC metro area missed most of the rain yesterday. Will we get missed again, or will it hit. Watch at 10 PM and I will fill you in on the new data.

Have a fantastic evening. It is very nice out there as this storm approaches.

Gary

In between storms.....May 8, 2008

glezak — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:14:00 GMT

Good morning NBC Action Weather bloggers,

We are in between storm systems this morning. The exiting storm produced small rainfall amounts in most areas, but 1" to 1 1/2" of rain fell in many of our southern rain gauges. John Moon, in Clinton reported over 1". So did Monica, in Pleasanton. This season there haven't been too many rainfall events that missed our local area, and even though this one hit the southern areas, it feels like it missed us. So, is this a trend and will tonights storm play some interesting games with us weather enthusiasts? We will find out soon.

Look at the forecast map for later this afternoon:

Yesterday's storm is weakening as it pulls away. We are still under its influence with northeast winds early today. By later this morning into this afternoon, you can see (4 PM) we are really in the coll area in between the two storms which will insure that the winds will become calm or very light. It should be a fantasatic day. But, our next storm is developing by late this afternoon. A pretty deep surface low is alread causing upsloping winds into eastern Colorado and most of the higher terrain of western Kansas and Nebraska. This will provide a favorable environment for thunderstorm development, and then these thunderstorms will try to organize into a complex that heads our way with an ETA (estimated time of arrival) of 5 AM Friday.

We will be tracking these developments all day on NBC Action News. Meteorologists Brett Anthony and Jeremy Nelson will keep you updated through the morning, including our 11 AM Midday Newscast. And, then Jeff Penner and I will be tracking the developing thunderstorms tonight at 5,6, and 10 PM with our new POWERCAST and Live ESP radar.

I am MC of the Shave to Save fundraiser for the American Cancer Society's Hope Lodge during the lunch hour today. I will get a picture of the shavee's, as 20 brave people get their heads shaved for a great cause today.

Have a fantastic day!

Gary

The LRC....a comparison

glezak — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:24:00 GMT

Happy Wednesday bloggers,

Rain is still trying to move into the south side late this morning. It will be a struggle today to get the rain north of I-70. Southern Kansas and southern Missouri will likely get way too much rain as the upper low spins up across Oklahoma towards the Arkansas/Missouri border by sometime tonight. I should have used the LRC to pin this storm down, but there were some distractions and good reasons that I made this mistake. It is May, and Gulf of Mexico air was fueling thunderstorms well out ahead of this storm system, but now that the main storm is beginning to form a comma head of rain, the LRC should have been used to forecast the rainfall pattern for later today and tonight. Look below at late January and now, the comparison:

The map on the right is the 18 hour forecast for 1 AM tonight. And, on the left the actual data from January 31st. This is about 98 days apart, and if you have been following this years LRC, then you know we are in roughly a 50 day cycle, which this is just about right on. Feature #1 on each map is the upper low sliding across eastern Oklahoma and into the Missouri/Arkansas line. Feature #2 is the big upper circulation in Canada. Feature #3 is the next wave of energy coming into the Pacific northwest. There is no denying that these features are all related. And, amazingly, we are getting strikingly similar mistakes in the forecast, statements in the blog, and weather on the ground. On January 31st, a foot of snow fell across southern Kansas and spread across southern Missouri. The northern edge of the comma got as close as Warrensburg, Sedalia, and Clinton where heavy snow fell for hours during the afternoon that day. What is happening today? Very heavy rain is developing over southern Kansas and will spread across Missouri. We will be on the northern edge of the comma head, which may yet get up to I-70, or a bit north by tonight. Fascinating! I should have known.

And, what happened next in February? A deep/cold vortex formed over Canada dropping into the central and eastern United States and a big ridge formed over the Pacific northwest. This is exactly what is being forecast by the models and trending in that direction. This is just more strong evidence showing that not only does the LRC exist, but we are still in the same pattern that set up in the fall.

As we move through the day, it will still be interesting to see if the comma head forms a bit farther north, as it is May. We will keep tracking these developments today. And, we are working on our summer forecast which will be on NBC Action News sometime next week.

Have a great day!

Gary

Wet and dry Wednesday

glezak — Wed, 07 May 2008 10:50:00 GMT

Good morning bloggers,

This is not a great week for us in the NBC Action News Forecast Center. Overnight, the thunderstorms fell apart. We have had a few sprinkles and light rain showers. And, now many areas will likely miss this next storm as it produces a deluge of rain over southern Kansas and southern Missouri. This is like one of our snowstorms that also missed us to the south. When you are on the northern edge, trying to pick out how far north the rain shield will be, the northern edge of a developing comma head, is one of the toughest forecasts to make. If you pick it out exactly right, then you will know who will get no rain at all, and who will have 5 inches of rain or more. Our latest in house computer model is predicting 6 inches of rain in Clinton, MO later today and tonight, and 0.04" at KCI airport.

I know we had a snowstorm like this, that ended up making us look like fools (I just checked and I believe this is directly related to the January 31st storm, or 98 days ago. The same thing happened and it tracked south of us, and I was even making some similar statements, so I could have used the LRC and pegged this rainfall pattern). Try not to bash us if the rain misses your location. Remember, we already feel pretty bad about this forecast as we continue to wait for our first real good rain shower of the week. Confidence is still low on where the northern edge of this storm will track. Right now, I lean with our in-house computer model keeping most of the rain south of I-70. So, if this is the case, then one knotch farther south and there will be no rain at all today. One slight shift to the north and we will be in the heavy rain.

Look below at the forecast track of the upper low:

So, based on this forecast, north of the blue line would get no measurable rain today. Once again, just an extremely slight shift northward and we would be in the comma head.

As soon as I see more evidence of the comma head developing, we will update the blog. Right now, it looks dry through most of the morning and this is two days in a row where our rainfall forecast would have been way off, for now.

Gary

Tuesday night update

glezak — Wed, 07 May 2008 02:22:00 GMT

Good late evening everyone,

The new NAM model and the RUC model both are trying to have the upper low, now near the Arizona Mexico border, move out close enough to Kansas City to put us in the rain shield. As a result the NAM is now predicting 3 inches of rain here on Wednesday. This is still a situation that we are going to know a lot more about early in the morning tomorrow.

And, the thunderstorms heading our way don't have the energy necessary to make me too concerned for severe thunderstorms overnight. We may have a strong line of thunderstorms before sunrise, if they hold together, but the threat of severe thunderstorms is very slight. We will continue to monitor the situation overnight. The thing to watch, if the upper low will be a bit farther north, is the line of thunderstorms west and north of us will weaken as the flow aloft backs as the storm approaches.

I will have a special POWERCAST, our new HD high resolution computer model as we describe this developing weather event. I am 50/50 on whether the upper low comes close enough to us. I will make a final decision on my thoughts during the 10 PM newscast.

Brett Anthony will be here overnight to monitor the thunderstorms moving in from the west and northwest.

Gary

Late Tuesday trends

glezak — Tue, 06 May 2008 20:39:00 GMT

Good evening everyone,

Definition of an MCS: A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms.

Well, it ended up being a very nice day with pretty and thick cumulus clouds. The weather pattern is transitioning into one that will produce some MCS activity. MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System. There is a chance of one tonight, and another one on Thursday night. Possibly one more around Saturday morning. So, three chances for an MCS, and one storm coming up from the southwest.

The track of the storm, as I showed on the first blog entry from early this morning, is possibly shifting slightly farther north. The track of this storm will decide whether we have rain most of the day Wednesday and just a mostly cloudy day. Someone is about to have too much rain, I just haven't pinned down who that is going to be yet. It appears southern Missouri is still the most likely spot for excessive rainfall, but let's see how it looks later this evening and overnight.

Now, back to the MCS possibility. There is still a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms to our northwest. We will be tracking these developments on our newscasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM. Severe thunderstorms are possible near Kansas City later tonight, but the energy is not nearly as strong as it was last Thursday night.

Have a great evening. We will update the blog later if thunderstorms begin heading our way.

Gary